2008 Predictions

[davidslane]

Okay, I was WRONG.

The Fed cut only 25 basis points which I (and everyone on CNBC) thinks was a mistake.


This is actually good for commodities.


Because the economic data from the US (and especially the US employment data) is going to get much weaker in the next three months.

This will force the Fed to cut and cut big and fast come the beginning of next year causing commodity prices to soar.

This will encourage a short term rally (the January/February I keep predicting), especially in commodities.


And then the realization that the economy is worse then the markets have priced in will cause the deep fall off in the markets I expect around March/April into July.

Once the market washes out all the economic problems, the market should recover into the 2008 November US elections as the current administration works overtime to try to help the incumbent party (although nothing can help the incumbant party!).


So, use any beginning year rally to sell your weaker uranium and metal stocks.
Dump your industrial metal stocks (copper, etc).  And focus on foreign blue chips, energy stocks, and a core of uranium, gold and silver.

And put aside attack capital for July.
And store it in non US currency.  Maybe Canadian dollars or Swiss francs.  I would stay away from euros, yen and pounds.

[hermes404@gmail.com]

nobody knows what the future will bring .

I really hope you're right with you new-year’s rally prediction.  Since most of my positions are in the red big time by now, and I’m looking for an exit for at least 40% of my holdings (so yes, I'm going to wait into the new year). But hope is the worsed adviser you can get (if it comes down to investing).

However i agree with the fact that the marked will come to recognize that the economy is in an worse state then everybody keeps telling each other on wall street.  If this happen, it probably will also bring down the TSX venture index. I don't think stock prices on the TSX venture exchange will rise er even keep steady when the Dow or S&P 500 are going south big time. Or maybe the inflation scenario of the Federal reserve will work and the stock market will be steady through the year 2008. Don't forget that the for us Europeans the Dow is already -10%  from the beginning of this year if we take the US-EUR valuation into the equation.

There are a lot of threats for 2008,  more threats then opportunities (Chinese stock market bubble etc), so I will keep an fair percentage of cash (start selling in feb since I’m now fully invested,  i know,  stupid me ).

There will be a shift from financials towards energy related stock,  but since the largest part of invested money is management through pension funds, the really big oil/gas/mining stock will profit from this not the small flying under the rader exploration funds.

My experience is that the blows will come from where no-body is expecting it to come from.
My best wishes for 2008 to everbody on this forum!

[Croaker]

Predictions, this has got to be like throwing dice.

Guess #1 - Fed cuts no lower than 3.75 into March 2008 to keep the economy going and prays the Real estate market settles and the credit card bubble doesn't pop. If this works, the Market is 3-5% for 2008.

Guess #2 - Fed cuts no lower than 3.75 into March 2008 to keep the economy going and prays the Real estate market settles and the credit card bubble doesn't pop. It doesn't work, May/June 2008 the ride of all rides begins and Market is down 10-15% for 2008.

Then again, my crystal ball hasn't work in twenty years after I got married.

[dananini]

croater, amen my brother

[Croaker]

So much for my "no lower than 3.75 fed rate".  Now I have to see if the Market for the year is up 3-5% or down 10-15%.  My scale is leaning down. 9 months and I will know for sure.