Stock Market July 2009

[sidewinder]

YC,

All in good fun playing devil’s advocate.  You know we are not that far apart in our views and upbringing.  It’s just that we need to keep in mind WHO the culprits are.  I assure it is not our unfortunate fellow citizens. 

Yes there is the FUTA;  The Federal Unemployment Tax Act (FUTA), authorizes the Internal Revenue Service to collect a federal employer tax used to fund state workforce agencies. Employers pay this tax annually by filing IRS Form 940. FUTA covers the costs of administering the UI and Job Service programs in all states. In addition, FUTA pays one-half of the cost of extended unemployment benefits (during periods of high unemployment) and provides for a fund from which states may borrow, if necessary, to pay benefits.
So the money is still suppose to be paid by the employer.  All this crap is why I want no part of being in business.   I call it still as my forefathers did in the early 1860’s federal meddling in States rights.  We fought a war over it and it still goes on.  No use in even getting that one started. 

I am sure that girl you mentioned would still be showing up at her job everyday if it were still there.   I mean 4000 people show up for 200 jobs.  It is not a simple thing and believe me it is going to get much worse.

  I spend most of my time nowadays tracking the financial shenanigans going on and tell you what.   Write this down AIG will be back at the trough pretty soon.   Plus the taxpayer will get to make good on a whole bunch of insurance policies.  Let me find a couple of links for you to read.  These things make me want to set my hair on fire. 
 
Bottom line is, times are hard and are going to get worse.  Let’s not be too hard on our fellow citizens who are getting their teeth kicked in.  Yes, there will be scammers but, by and large most did not see this coming.   

[MetalMeister]

Hey Man!

I love advocating you. 

I don't think we are that far apart at all.  After all, we grew up just a stone's throw from each other, sort of.   

I think it all comes down to greed and self-indulgence.

That is a problem from the very top all the way down to the poor guy.

Everyone needs to take a haircut, not just those at the top.

Point is that our viewpoint is all skewed.  The media in all it's forms teaches us to be ravenous consumers.  Our very government leaders have taught us this lifestyle.  And those that bought it are the guilty ones no matter what level of life they live.  Whether they are using the little people or it's the little people being used.  All are guilty who accepted this ravenous consumerism, live beyond your means type of world.

Therefore, everyone who partakes needs to pay the piper from the least to the greatest.

Very simple path to get back to normalcy.  Will it hurt some people?  Yes.  Will it be painful?  Yes.

But let's not kill those who did not play their game in the way of getting back to normalcy.  They were not insured and have no part in this mess.

As far as AIG, I am sure they will be at the trough in no time flat.

Send me the links.

They recently asked for more time in backruptcy, don't know if they got it or not.  They deserve nothing.  let them fail so we can get back to normal.

Love ya, man!

[sidewinder]

While I am looking for the links

The talk about unemployment got me to looking around.  I came up with this chart.  A few things stand out.  The pink vertical lines are recessions. 
Eisenhower had to deal with a chronic string of recessions while, Johnson, Carter, Regan and Clinton had none to deal with.   

Unemployment reach staggering heights about the time Regan started his second term even though we were recession free for over 10 years at that point.  We still re-elected him.  Speaks volumes as to his political skills.  (Or those of his handlers)

Unemployment tried to fit into the channel towards the end of Shrub’s term but Bush, the ultimate under-achiever managed to put a halt to the decline in un-employment and print a really weird congestion area on the chart. 

The peaks and valleys on the chart point out something else.  Most presidents seem to take office with low unemployment.  Then once in office, the unemployment goes up reaching a peak just in mid-term and reaching lows at the end of their terms.  To me it seems like they take office; play fast and loose with the economy until suddenly they go “Oh shit elections are coming up” and spend the last couple of years fixing what they screwed up in the first half of their presidency. 

                       

Looking at that chart and thinking back about life under the various presidents:  I was in the military through most of Johnsons and Nixon’s reign so living life in the military you live in a cocoon and while not the “good life”  it’s never that bad.  Free medical, Housing, insurance and food if you want it does take away some stress.  Out of the military and trying to find some stability in the workforce was a challenge and to me times were bad under Carter, really bad.  Nixon was not much better and things got better under Regan.  Bush the first, caused some angst but by then I was making a lot more that most worker in the country and did not feel the pressure.  The years under Clinton were by far the best earning opportunity I had in life and it seems like the Shrub had only been in office and hour and a half before I watched my career destroyed by thieves, charlatans, crooked lawyers, judges, politicians and 17 Saudi Arabian Muslims.  The Shrub was a worthless Nar-do-well son of a rich and powerful politician and is well documented as a serial screw up.  I will die knowing that he or rather his handlers engineered the theft of the first election because he was/is not capable of such a perfect caper.  Anyway   
When I was born “give em Hell Harry Truman was president and I have lived under 12 of them.  4 whom I regard as good men and true American patriots, 2 that could not keep it in their pants, 4 seriously big time crooks,  one I truly believe we will never know about because he was a great actor and now the “dark one”.   Church is out on him as of now, I just have to figure out which Church he belongs to.

[sidewinder]

Here ya go YC this will just make the weekend better for you.

This week, we confirmed the coverage universe for subscribers to The IRA Advisory Service and included an upgrade of the Outlook for Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS). This does not mean that we approve of the political machinations of the Boys on Broad Street. Quite the contrary. But our clients pay us to help them find value and GS is benefiting mightily from being among the last men standing - at least for now.
Along with JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM), GS has a near monopoly on trading and new issue underwriting, thus we expect strong operating results for 2009.  As we told the folks on Fast Money on Monday, if you could buy into a hedge fund with access to the Fed discount window, subsidies from the US Treasury, and Ben Bernanke and Tim Geithner as your lobbyists in Washington, wouldn't you want a piece of that?  But there are a number of firms looking to provide alternatives to GS.  Even Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) has suddenly decided that capital markets is an attractive area for future business expansion, this after eschewing anything outside of its traditional banking focus.  Go figure.

http://us1.institutionalriskanalytics.com/pub/IRAstory.asp?tag=370

http://us1.institutionalriskanalytics.com/pub/IRAstory.asp?tag=351

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/what-is-goldman-sachs

[sidewinder]

Oh and don't miss this testamony by Chris Whalen to Senator Dodd on the Derivatives market which is holding the entire world hostage IMHO.   This mess involves very powerful people both in business and politics here and abroad.   It will be next to impossible to stop this behavior short of you know what.  I dont see that happening so prepare for the worse. 

Golman if not the head of the snake is certainly a major component.  Many understand this and I think Congress understands this.  But yet they sit idle.   Lets see how they handle the next 12 months, it really is happening in slow motion. 

http://www.rcwhalen.com/pdf/CD071309.pdf

[sidewinder]

And then, there is my guy Marty Armstrong.  Still getting his message out even as a guest of the Federal Goverment at Ft. Dix lockup.     

http://www.scribd.com/doc/14268132/Financial-Panics-Political-Change

[MetalMeister]

J.P. Morgan is the head of the snake, so to speak.

Well, it is those that control J.P. Morgan as well as other financial institutions, FED, Central banks, etc, from afar, throughout history, that are the true masters of deception and orchestrators of this one world globalistic economy so they can rape pillage and sack all the rest of us.

Great posts SW, I will do some good reading tomorrow...

Sweet dreams, wherever you are!

[sunseeker]

Good posts SW.
Thanks in particular for some more Marty Armstrong (not around to reading it all yet).

Another one to add to YCs reading list.
If you still believe that gold or silver ETFs are a proxy for physical gold or silver then please read on:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/149209-are-gld-and-slv-legitimate-investment-vehicles

Still believe?

I posted last week that I thought that by this time this week the silver spot could be weaker (much weaker), and that would provide a good opportunity.
I was wrong. Silver had a good week (+7.14%).

Now who was it that tipped silver?
Ole Blue (silver/gold/crude) eyes.
Yet another coupe for YC. Well done.


ATB 

[Bottomfeeder]

Hey don't go forgetting about all those government subsidies for our nations farmers that have been going on for eons now.....

whats good for the goose is good for the gander right?

Let em fail right?  Greedy with all that land they have trying to make too many consumables for the rest of our nations people....paid to not produce, but they have those government subsidized equipment purchases to pay for right?  If we don't help em out our nations farmers will fail right?

please....off the pulpit, off the religion, off the race, off the judgment.....

this country has been bailing people and busineses out for longer than I have been alive directly and indirectly sometimes through subsidies sometimes through our bankruptcy courts....

not like this is some brand new phenomenon, right?

[onlooker]

Bf:

Very true.  But the “American bank bailouts” is the mother of all bailouts in any part of the world.  They affect all America taxpayers.  The bank bailouts help Wall Street and not Main Street.  Plus, because the bank bailouts are not completely transparent, they have become controversial.

Here's what Americans are writing or saying about the bank bailouts.

The American prim and proper banking community confirms who created the U.S. banking problems, and who benefits from the bailouts.

See: http://www.epi.org/publications/entry/event_20090610/

Simon Johnston wrote a May 2009 article titled The Quiet Coup.  Johnston, Matt Taibi and others exposed to the public that there is a “Wall Street-Washington Corridor” and American Oligarchs.   

See:  http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200905/imf-advice

See:  http://dailybail.com/home/bank-bailout-news-glenn-greenwald-says-summers-geithner-and.html

In the news media, financial critics are not holding back in telling the truth that only Wall Street benefited from the bank bailouts.

Eliot Spitzer, former “Sheriff of Wall Street” is back!  He talks about Goldman Sachs financial earnings and Main Street.  Yes, he probably has an axe to grind with America’s financial oligarchies.

Nevertheless, Eliot Spitzer speaks the truth, and he is fearless. 

See:  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dBbwfOdjLko&eurl=http%3A%2F%2Fvideo%2Egoogle%2Eca%2Fvideosearch%3Fhl%3Den%26lr%3D%26rlz%3D1G1GGLQ%5FENCA313%26ei%3DeohiSqr%2DOKnEtgfAjL3tDw%26resnum%3D0%26q%3Deliot%2520spitzer%2520goldman&feature=player_embedded

And in the political arena, there is Congressional Oversight Panel Chairman, Elizabeth Warren who is also as fearless.  Trillions from U.S. taxpayers are unaccounted for.

April 21, 2009.  Here’s Elizabeth Warren's eloquent plea on behalf of American taxpayers to bored –looking Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner.  Her speech says it all regarding what Main Street thinks about the bank bailouts.

See:  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ga4hkN1FjEo

[sidewinder]

Thanks for those links Onlooker.  Lots of information out there and what's surprising is that more of middle American is not just livid at what is going on.  I get so frustrated sometimes.

I could not help but notice some of the video links on the side column of one of the sites to my old buddy Walstreetpro2.  This guy is on a mission.  LOL  I get frustrated occasionaly and go watch his videos for a while.     You tube revoked his privilidge at one time but he came back on and has a huge following now so they cant do too much about his rants.

THIS IS A WARNING TO ANYONE THAT MAY VIEW THE LINK BELOW.

If vile, profane language offends you, DO NOT click on the link.   Even if you do you may need a You Tube account to sign into in order to view the videos.  The guy even uses words he invented I think, but if the language doesn't offend it really is quite a show.  The guy is one of the good ol boys living in Charlotte NC area and despite His rough exterior has a pretty good knowledge of what's going on. 


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KWu-efNN8PM&feature=channel

[sidewinder]

Signs of Green Shoots in 1933....

[sidewinder]

This is from martin Armstrong's April 2009 report.  I do like how he thinks

Health Care Reform cannot be done without Tort Reform

It is interesting that the majority of Senators and Congressmen are lawyers.  We hear about the greed of “Wall Street” and the government wants to curtail bonuses to corporate CEOs and bankers that will make the highest paying jobs in society either of two options – (1) be a sports player, or  (2) a lawyer.

Princeton Economics conducted a small study into the health industry.  What we had found was that doctors wee ordering tests they know they did not need, not for the sake of personal greed to increase fees, but because if sued the lawyers would then claim they were guilty of malpractice.  Costs have escalated because of the lawyers and then the cost of insurance has to reflect the risk of huge jury awards.  However, the lawyers may take on a case on a contingent basis and then take 40% of the award.

It is time that the self-interest of the legal profession yield to the needs of our economy to save or way of life.  There should be national health care just like there is a fire department, police, and schools.  That does not prevent private doctors for those who want to pay for that.  But we need full coverage for the average American family.  Small business routinely paid for the family as a benefit.  Then the lawyers sent the costs sky-high.

Then government sees how much those benefits are today as a percentage of income, and then you hear the battle cry to tax it.  This is an economic death-spiral that if we do not fix correctly with real live tort reform, there will be no healthcare that is provided by employers.  Just look at General motors.  The legacy costs are so high, they would be better off going bankrupt.  People who worked in good faith for those long-term benefits will see that there is nothing guaranteed but what Ben Franklin said – death and taxes.
We need to eliminate unlimited jury awards.  If you lose an arm, that should have a specific penalty, not be based upon emotional loss that the person may not be able in the future to be a rock-star.  Healthcare should not be this insane.  It never use to be this costly as a percent of total spending.

Healthcare costs are sending even service jobs overseas. Employers cannot afford these costs and it is not right that families end up in poverty because of a medical emergency.  The majority of lawyers on Capitol Hill have been preventing this reform because it is not Wall Street, but the legal Profession.  Every other profession is now subject to the criticism of Congress, but the legal profession and that includes their own Government attorneys.  This is the fate of our society at stake.  When will we stop not the greed on Wall Street, but the greed in Congress?

Obama’s plan illustrates the problem.  He is only proposing adding $50 trillion in future liability for Government healthcare to cover those who are not covered at tax payer expense.  If you are a small business, give up the healthcare for your workers can now get coverage for free.  This will attract a larger proportion of the population but will not address the rising costs and will accelerate them because the Government will pick up the tab.  We need tort reform as well – not just picking up the bills for those who cannot afford it.  This will not reduce healthcare costs as a percent of GDP and allows the lawyers to still reap the benefits. 

We need to address the rising costs, not just those who have no insurance.  If we do not address real reform, then we might as well declare bankruptcy now for there will be a revolution when all the jobs that can leave, do leave.  What will we become then?  All sports viewers, and where is my free Bread?

[sidewinder]

Looking at charts all weekend trying to grab an eventual target for this bounce I keep seeing 1050 coming in on line after line I draw on the chart for S & P.

There could be a big bull and bear fight in the 950 area this week if we dont drop for a retest of previous lows in a bit of a rest period.   If we get through 960 I don't see what can stop it from going to 1000.

The market is a little overbought and just heard a "talking head" CNBC 'expert say we are going down.  So Up we go.  LOL  I would like to see some evidence of exhaustion in any toping action for the crash signal though.  A drop back to 920 or 910 even would not be unusual and could give some of the "puppies" an opportunity to jump into the market for a good push toward the 100 target.

Anyway, should open up this morning with the battle zone at 940 for the morning battle and support

[MetalMeister]

SS,

I am of the opinion that silver could once again test below $10, I just don't think it is now.

Reason is that the drop below 10 and 9 last year puts that bottom in play, however, once fear really strikes into the hearts of people's minds then PMs will skyrocket and never look back.

In the meantime, I try to look into my crystal ball at what is going to happen in the next couple of months and that is why I made my prediction on 7/10. 

I think we will slide to 6500 DOW again, then consolidate before the big crash.  But 5 months ago I thought that crash was imminent, but the fake money continues to hold up the derivatives market.

It's all psychology/psychological mass hypnosis, at this point.  Realization will come in it's due time.
 
Only time will tell...

OTWT. 

You can quote me on that acronym!

Another one to add to YCs reading list.
If you still believe that gold or silver ETFs are a proxy for physical gold or silver then please read on:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/149209-are-gld-and-slv-legitimate-investment-vehicles

Still believe?

I posted last week that I thought that by this time this week the silver spot could be weaker (much weaker), and that would provide a good opportunity.
I was wrong. Silver had a good week (+7.14%).

Now who was it that tipped silver?
Ole Blue (silver/gold/crude) eyes.
Yet another coupe for YC. Well done.


ATB