Stock Market Talk for Feb 2009

[jjj000]

Sidewinder... yellowcaked... again, I share your frustration.  And I am on the other side, working on building a company and a life... and I am not happy about it one bit.  The real pisser to me is that for the most part, there are no guidelines as to HOW this stimulus money is going to be spent.  They are just cutting blank checks with no strings attached!!!

Gee, ya think people are going overcharge for service contracts and skim off the top??  It's infuriating.  I hope someone soon makes a connection and can determine what kind of kickbacks the Republican turncoats got out of it as well... Collins, Spencer, Snowe... in addition to Pelosi and Reid and the Dem leadership, of course.  There was a time in this country when those 3 GOP Senators would be tarred and feathered for what they have just done...

In any case... definitely has me set in the mode to be more of a market marauder than an investor.  So in that regard - in addition to commercial RE... I've taken some long looks at the credit card companies.  May be stupid obvious, but then again so was the banks.  Visa seems to be bulletproof with expanding global revenues - but others - Advanta, Capital One, MasterCard, Discover, AMEX - could be vulnerable to some further big moves down.  $400 stimulus checks aren't going to help them.

I'm always wrong when I try to guess how the market will react to something, just listen to what the charts are saying and most importantly - manage risk!

Pinetree - something perhaps stupid simple I have started to try to do... to circumvent my erroneous "guessing"... I have started to simply... (and forgive me is this is so stupidly dumb and obvious that it sounds ridiculous and condescending)...  but I have started to look at the market and make my next decision as IF I got the previous call correct!!  Make sense??

For example, rather than just look at the market today and try to figure out what to do... I am looking at the market today and saying "well if I had bought in back at the November low, what would I be doing today?"  And sometimes the answer is totally different.

Perhaps too dumbly obvious to be worth anything, but it's funny how often I step back and do that and it changes my mind!! 

In any case, per that article you posted - I just bought some Puts on Harmony gold and Kinross a couple days ago, so I am in agreement with that guys sentiment.  I'm also going to wait until April and then buy a ton of August Puts on the gold miners then too - to try and take advantage of the seasonal drop we usually see and maximize the timeframe/gain on the options.  Of course, watch it won't happen this year and I'll get it wrong anyway


OK, enough out of me...
GLTA

[Croaker]

I hear you all on the Stimulas Bill.  Just wait until 2010 when it is all falls on President Obama's plate as to Bush can not be blamed as much and see how the cookie crumbles from both the Elephants and Jackasses (Donkeys).  Nothing put finger pointing as to why it didn't work.

As for the Market.  I am all in as far as Poker goes. I still say gold is the way. I buy on the low and sell high.  Everything I bought since Nov lows, I sold for 20% profit. Getting ready to sell another for 20% plus profit and wait for the drop at my buying price again. 

I am either getting my money back from last years loss or going to get two black eyes, bloody nose and 10 broken fingers.

Riding the wave with both eyes wide open!!!!!!!

[dananini]

Anyone heard how nukes made-out in the "stimulus"? I can't find anything. Bet they lost-out.

[pinetree]

For example, rather than just look at the market today and try to figure out what to do... I am looking at the market today and saying "well if I had bought in back at the November low, what would I be doing today?"  And sometimes the answer is totally different.

Perhaps too dumbly obvious to be worth anything, but it's funny how often I step back and do that and it changes my mind!! 

No, I think it's a great rule to go by.  It's so simple it's brilliant!

[MetalMeister]

SW,

You know me and what I believe.  When you close out all those long term holding go physical gold and silver and preserve your wealth from what is to come.

I'm going to post something a little later on today about Precious Metals ETFs.  Suggest everyone read.

Remember a few months ago when I said I think DOW 3000-5000 is coming?  I am starting to believe it could even be worse than that.

For what it's worth, I have put my money where my mouth is.  100% of my investments (not in uranium) are now in gold and silver, with a small portion of that for capital to produce coins trying to arbitrage that market for some small % gains.

Considering all the above plus the ongoing never ending creation of debt on the part of the US Government, I as a citizen/victim of the excesses of the Congress of the US can no longer consider myself an investor.  I intend to close out all long term holdings and stay in a scalper mode until I see any evidence of sane policy which, unfortunately I don’t think will occur in my lifetime.

[MetalMeister]

What does Canada's government do?

I think Obama sees the handwriting on the wall.  Catastrophe is what IS coming.

However in this hour of potential “catastrophe” (to quote our president)
each and every item must be financed by debt. Therefore it should be directed unequivocally
at job creation or tax cuts. Why not declare a withholding tax holiday for the next two years?
No chance; Congress always seeks power in spending taxpayer dollars. Canada’s government
is so much more sensible.

[MetalMeister]

If I were going to "play" the markets with some cash (which I don't have at the moment) I would go long oil, gold, silver and go short everything else.  I have gone long by holding physical PMs and uranium, but I never foresaw oil taking the dive it has done.  I totally missed that play.  Oil price HAS to go back up.  Check out this article from today.

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/12022009/399/50-000-offshore-workers-jobs-jeopardy.html

Many oil fields will go broke at these prices, older field's equipment is aging and needs to be replaced, world demand has to grow even if slowly, if price does not go back up then supply will come drammatically down and countries will have to prioritize where their meager oil reserves will be targeted.

I really am the contrarian after watching the DOW go solidly into the 7000 territory.

Didn't take any trades today.  The market seemed too choppy and indecisive with no trend emerging on even the smaller timeframes.

[dananini]

The only things certain in life are death, taxes and the continual evaporation of the "Nuclear Rennasaince". This could be the end of any hope that U's will ever turn the corner in the US.I just cannot believe the ineptitude of these clowns.

http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/feb2009/2009-02-12-094.asp

[punter]

Faith springs eternal. Merv is bullish this week and Dines sent out another IWB yesterday saying BUY BUY BUY !!!!!

OMG, I'm getting tired of hearing this crap.

[sidewinder]

Thanks to Dines I was able to unload some of my dogs today.  Since I no longer subscribe was unaware of the IWB.  Maybe I can bump up my exits a couple of cents.  Greater fool theory and all.  Looking forward to tomorrow.  would like to get rid of the rest before the long week-end. 

I guess what the market wanted to hear is the government will make your mortgage good. Last thirty minutes was quite a rid eh.

[jjj000]

I guess what the market wanted to hear is the government will make your mortgage good. Last thirty minutes was quite a rid eh.

right?  Crazy.  Not the reversal I was looking for I don't think.  I can't imagine anyone wants to be holding much of anything over this long weekend.  We'll see what kind of craziness tomorrow holds...

[ArsenalFan]

Does anybody have insight as to whether or not Canada will have a mortgage meltdown as well?  I live in Calgary and with an above average income for now live in a very modest dwelling that could potentially sell for $400000 (paid 170,000 in 2001).  I can attest that there is not much left at the end of the month for discrecionary spending and we are tightening our belts.  That being said, there are literally thousands of homes in the 450,000-800,000 range with young people in their late 20s and early 30s with newborns.  I just don't know how they are doing it.  Is there an investment thesis??

[MetalMeister]

SW, I think I saw or read somewhere today that the mortgage help would only be for interest payments not principle, thus the banks win again...

Arsenal, if I had something I paid 170K for and could sell for 400K, it would be gone tomorrow.

Thanks to Dines I was able to unload some of my dogs today.  Since I no longer subscribe was unaware of the IWB.  Maybe I can bump up my exits a couple of cents.  Greater fool theory and all.  Looking forward to tomorrow.  would like to get rid of the rest before the long week-end. 

I guess what the market wanted to hear is the government will make your mortgage good. Last thirty minutes was quite a rid eh.

[Uboat]

The largest foreign investment in China's history suggests that the Asian economic superpower believes its own demand for base metals will pick up faster than many analysts and economists expect.

"This shows that raw material demand may be coming back earlier than people thought. Probably in this coming spring,"

http://www.globeinvestor.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20090212.wriotintostaff0212/GIStory/

[jjj000]

"This shows that raw material demand may be coming back earlier than people thought. Probably in this coming spring,"

hah... thanks globeinvestor.com... yes, I think we've all seen the metals charts and know how they generally behave going into spring.  Silliness

Sorry all this stimulus crap has got me super irritable...