A Stock Watch List

[Peter518]

=============== OFFENSIVE Sectors ======================


Materials




Energy




Technology




Financial




Industrial




Consumer Discretionary



------

iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate (ETF)





============ DEFENSIVE Sectors ======================


Consumer Staples




Health Care




Utilities

[MetalMeister]

Nice slide show, Peter!  Thanks.

How come some of them repeated several times?

Can anybody spell it's time for a C-O-R-R-E-C-T-I-O-N ?

Would it be too much trouble to run it again with a start date of October 1, 2008 to present?

[Peter518]

[sidewinder]

Then a comparison with the S&P which is the Red line in a percentage view it paints a picture which shows all those sectors running in concert with the S&P until Nov 5th of last year (2010).  The S&P exceeded the index for the first time since April 2010.  Thence a departure of the status quo relationship begins with the S&P departing upwards as the index remains basically sideways. 

What does this tell you?  Well, you can look at any of this several ways,  notice the divergence with the S&P crossing over the index back in April and then again in the first week of November.  In both cases a decent market correction occurred before the divergence got very far and sort of pulled things back to what would be somewhat normal for this study.  The November failure produced a good pullback and simply reversed and looks more like markets gone wild on the chart.  If I were a betting man, based on this chart I would expect these two lines to come back together and soon.  This would mean the S&P (Dow and Nasdaq look much the same in comparison) would come down and the index would go up or some combination of the two. 

Now, before anybody applies some significance to any of this, the data is formulated using a 3 year timeframe.  This chart would look very different if I used say, 20 years of data and even more different if another timeframe.  I selected 3 years because it took in the market failure in 08 including the bottom March 08 and the ensuing climb to stardom as the miracle market we know and love.  I look at lots of different scenarios which my demented mind can come up with in an attempt to find clues for market timing. 

So, it appears that this scenario has produced decent market corrections in the past but many questions remain.  Such as, how much correction for what degree of deviation?  Without posting a bunch of charts I will just say that it did not take much of a deviation at the beginning of ’08 to produce a 52% market correction.  These last two depicted on this chart produced between 6 and 10% correction.  Currently this is the largest degree of deviation observed on this time period and as usual I wait, watching with morbid fascination as events in this asylum we call earth play out.
 
Thoughts?     Observations?    Complaints?

[Peter518]

It is understandable people chase high beta sectors in the bull market, thus offensive sectors outperforming defensive sectors.

However, high crude oil prices may undermine the bull market.   So we should pay attention to the moving of oil price at present.

[MetalMeister]

Maybe I just see things in simple form?

Can anybody spell Q-U-A-N-T-T-A-T-I-V-E- E-A-S-I-N-G  II  

The reason I say that is the divergence kicked off about that time they started QE2.

Think we have some banks flush with all that taxpayer cash buying up some S&P stocks?   

Or maybe just a coincidence?   

[Peter518]

SLV hit a new high today.

[Peter518]

The market is still very bullish.  Today XLE and IYR have hit new highs.

We may need to wait until QEII expiring in June 2011 to see a significant correction.

[sidewinder]

Well, there's certainly no end in sight immediantly for the miracle market that's for sure.  But make no mistake ......  it will end (they all do) and it will not end well for many.  Meanwhile, party on.

[sunseeker]

SLV hit a new high today.

SLV hit a new high today.

                                 



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VsKX5RO_OMA&feature=related

Oh that SLV.

Hi Peter518
SLW and others which have "real silver" hit new highs too. 

ATB 

[Tedsundololes]

  ,   ,   ,   ,   ,   ,   ,   

[Peter518]

China PMI vs WTI