Agriculture

[onlooker]

Hi Sunseeker:

Things that I've read/watched/done today........

Food shortages.....
China
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=kSqKIujXqkY
Egypt
http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/egypts-warning-are-you-listening/52575
Israel
http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=44257
Nigeria
http://allafrica.com/stories/201102081049.html

It's a worldwide problem, and it's a situation that's not going to be resolved any time soon or without pain.
I've been buying  Agriculture ETFs today.

Great observations about agriculture, SS

I agree with you that along with the current fiat currencies crisis; there is going to be a food supply crisis.  And that it’s a good idea to invest in agricultural stocks (besides precious metals stocks).

I have seen some past postings related to agriculture at BHSH.  But these postings are very difficult to relocate.

So, I would like to open up this forum for posters to post any stocks suggestions, "food for thought," comments, articles, observations, etc …  related to agriculture.   

[onlooker]

Canada needs policy overhaul to keep up with global food markets

By Jessica Leeder — Global Food Reporter      Published Monday, Feb. 07, 2011

Canada has lost its status as a food-producing superpower and needs a drastic overhaul of its agricultural policy if it hopes to compete in world markets and feed more of its own people.

The country, hobbled by out-of-date policies and an ongoing battle for scarce government dollars, has dropped from third-largest global exporter of food to number seven at a time when we can least afford it: Climate change and population growth are putting enormous pressure on the food system, while diet-related health-care costs are weighing on the national economy.

Those conclusions were laid out Monday by the Canadian Agri-Food Policy Institute, a non-partisan think tank. The institute issued a challenge to food-system stakeholders shaping future agriculture policy, demanding they create a new framework to enable Canada to double its agri-food exports to $75-billion and produce 75 per cent of its own food by 2025.

Anatomy of the Fall

The problems start on the farm. Incomes have stagnated over the past two decades, debt levels are soaring and yet direct government payments to farmers have tripled over the past 20 years. Canada spends more than $8-billion on agriculture each year; most of that subsidizes struggling operations rather than fund research and development.

“Canadian farming profitability and our ability to serve the world is falling by the wayside,” Mr. Lussier said.

Food processors have also struggled, squeezed by demanding retailers who, in turn, have been lured by higher margins they can reap by selling cheaper imported food. Consumers, in turn, have grown used to spending only a fraction of their income on food and now demand cheap prices – at any cost.

Reasons to sit up at the table

Abundant sources of cheap food are linked to a litany of health and environmental problems, from obesity, cancer and diabetes to the degradation of natural resources and contributions to global greenhouse-gas emissions. Health-care budgets are chronically on the rise. Climate change is already impacting food prices, which this month reached historic highs as charted by the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization. The world, as we are repeatedly told, is projected to have nine billion mouths to feed by 2050.

The country’s agriculture ministers are scheduled to meet later this year to sketch out a new national, five-year strategy.

[Peter518]

Some Agri related stocks listed on US exchanges:











-------------------
















Some on TSX/V:

AMZ.V   AAA.V   KRN.TO  ICP.V  MBC.TO  WPX.V  BOE.V  NGQ.TO

[onlooker]

Hi Peter518:

Thanks for the cribnotes – like agri trends and stock suggestions.    

[MetalMeister]

Good job.  I always try to start new threads.

We lose way too much good information on this forum, via generic threads.

I have seen some past postings related to agriculture at BHSH.  But these postings are very difficult to relocate.

So, I would like to open up this forum for posters to post any stocks suggestions, "food for thought," comments, articles, observations, etc …  related to agriculture.   

[MetalMeister]

Excellent Peter.  Thanks.

It seems that everything commodities took off in July time frame.

Huge fear in bear investors and even middle of the road investors.

I have made 175% on silver and 50% on gold since fall 2008. 

I know guys who have been raking in 300-600% on many mining stocks since that late 08-present run up.  Once it hit the lows they bought heavily on stocks they new had pounds in the ground.  They have made millions.

Sitting on 175%, I feel a little like an idiot but I have very relaxing days!!

[dananini]

mm,
it kills me, but after the u fiasco i just didn't have the balls nor the ability to dismiss past cognitive events.some people are just plain lucky, whether it be football pools, buying u's at the botom or everyday little shit that happens to people.
i'm sick about all this, because 25k back in May would probably be worth 75-100 today,just with asshole's old basket.all my shit was bought in the winter of 07, and i've held almost all of it since.
Good luck to all...

[MetalMeister]

Whole Foods was a Dines pick in early 2008, I think.  Still on his list.  Bought at $47  Held it all the way down and back, not a sell as far as I know.  Got as low as $8, now he has a $22 gain/46% and appears to be heading North.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=WFMI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=wfmi;range=5y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

[sidewinder]

Very good list Peter, Thanks.   

Somewhere I have a letter I sent a friend in response to his asking on investment possibilities going forward.  I was going to "dress it up" and stick it on my blog but time has not been my friend lately.  If I locate it I will post here also.  I did include a strong recommendation to place some funds into Agriculture and general commodities.  He can't trade futures in his account so some of those above I included in the letter to him.  That is a pretty good list and as I simply put before things you don't need will drop in price, things you can't live without will go up in price.

While TPTB manipulate to keep the perception of inflation from the minds of the voters and all currencies race to the bottom the one thing that can't be hidden are commodities.  Hence, the rise in price of these commodities are to me a signal or proof of inflation.  Comparing currencies to one another is the general way we spot inflation but in this case all of the fiat currencies are in trouble and the remain relative to one another in this race to the bottom.  This is why the markets continue and will continue to go up and commodities compared to the general market will way out perform. 

Just saying.

[yeocokent]

Here are a few of my favorites for longer term investing:

Omega Protein - OME - They produce fish meal and fish oil.  Global aquaculture production has grown so large that the demand for fishmeal has more than tripled prices of fishmeal from traditional levels over the last few years.  In addition they now sell omega 3 for human consumption.

Monsanto - Biotechnology, seed production, research.  They own round up ready techonology.  They also own Seminis who is the largest vegetable seed company in the world.  They also own corn and cotton seed companies.  So they not only develop biotech traits, they have the platform to take them to market through the seed companies they have acquired.  They reportedly control 25+percent of global seed sales.

Dupont - They own Pioneer Hybrid the largest and best corn seed company.

Darling International - Interesting rendering company.  Renewable fuels have sent fat prices through the roof and they produce different grades of animal fats and collect used cooking oil from restuarants.  Their fats also receive energy credits to be burned in industrial plants and pretty easily replaces residual fuel oil with the 50 cent/gallon tax credit.

John Deere - The first thing a farmer does when corn prices go up, is take that money to buy new John Deere tractors.  At least that is what my family does.

Syngenta - biotech    

OME and DAR are my two favorites of the bunch.

[MetalMeister]

Monsanto, GMOs = DEATH to humans.....  Cause it sure does in lab mice and rats.......

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=MON+Interactive#chart1:symbol=mon;range=my;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

Might as well go with a winner even if their goal is to depopulate the world......

[sunseeker]

Hi OL
Good to hear from you.
Re:

Great observations about agriculture, SS

Thanks for the vote of confidence. 

ATB

Hi MM

Good move on the agriculture ETFs.  Which ones?  What has the run up on them been in the last few months in anticipation?  What makes you think the share price has not already been realized?

In answer to your question.....
It's not normally the best time of the year to look at agriculture.

http://buy-high-sell-higher.com/forum/general-discussion/stock-market-july-2010-t1154.0.html;msg13782#msg13782

Depleted drew our attention to the trend in July, and I wisely responded.

Agriculture has had a good run but I decided to put more in this area for one big reason. The weather. If the Chinese don't get rains in the next 2 weeks or so the rice harvest is going to be poor and they'll have to look to other markets. That'll bump up the price of rice in particular, and it'll likely have a knock on effect on other grains and foodstuffs.

I posted this earlier.........

The worrisome thing about these trends is that if/when chronic food shortages occur it takes at least one full growing cycle (one year or so) to do anything about it, and that's only if everyone gets their act together at the outset.

I have gone for RJA because it's one of the few ETFs with “Rice” in it. It's also only recently up the weighting of rice to 2.149%.
https://www.elementsetn.com/RICI-Agriculture-ETN.aspx

There's  also “ZR” Rice Options for anyone willing to take more risk.
http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/contracts.html?r=CBOT_ZR

I also took a small stake in....
AGRP (good for me because it's priced in £).
http://www.etfsecurities.com/fund/etfs_fund_agri_business_gb_en.asp

The companies supposed to provide you with leverage and yet most companies haven't faired as well as the commodities so maybe we will see more action.

I still hold my SXX. Potash.
http://www.siriusexploration.com/

FFY. Bananas.......shipping/importation. 
http://www.fyffes.com/

My dark horse stock (I mentioned ) CRM which has been quietly doing well and giving me dividends too (currently 3.57% and it's 2.67 times covered).
http://www.carrs-milling.com/

CRM has an engineering division which makes robotic arms for the nuclear industry too.
http://www.hwm.com/

AGTA. Africa.
http://www.agriterra-ltd.com/

A more familiar names to you......
SCP
http://www.sprottresource.com/
Overview.
http://www.sprottresource.com/investments-overview.aspx

With it's large stake in “One Earth Farms Corp.”
http://www.sprottresource.com/one-earth-farms-corp.aspx

CZZ. Sugar.
http://www.cosan.com.br/cosan2009/web/default_pti.asp?idioma=0&conta=45

ALEX. Sugar. Coffee. Real Estate. Shipping.
http://www.alexanderbaldwin.com/

Last but not least.......

ERII. Where would we be without water.
http://www.energyrecovery.com/
 

I've been getting round to doing a few jobs  which I've been putting off. I can see my garden is starting to awaken and if I don't get around to them soon then  I'll have no chance.

The standard acronym for DIY may be “Do It Yourself.”
“Don't Involve Yourself” might be a more appropriate acronym. 

ATB 

[yeocokent]

Monsanto, GMOs = DEATH to humans.....  Cause it sure does in lab mice and rats.......

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=MON+Interactive#chart1:symbol=mon;range=my;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

Might as well go with a winner even if their goal is to depopulate the world......

Whereas depopulating the world would help aleve any potential food shortages, it would not be a good business plan to kill your customers.  Hysterics aside, MON is a good long term investment.  They are currently taking their novel traits into other crops and there is much more room for them to grow globally.  Granted they do need to do more consumer outreach.

[yeocokent]

Thanks for the companies SS.  I just looked at Carrs milling.  That is an unbelievable company and the dividend is nice too.  The energy recovery company is interesting too, but looks like it is floundering.  Right now in agriculture, everyone is measuring their "carbon footprint".  In the next 10 years we expect to be measuring "water footprint" as well.  Water will be the next "global warming".

[sunseeker]

Thanks for the companies SS.  I just looked at Carrs milling.  That is an unbelievable company and the dividend is nice too.  The energy recovery company is interesting too, but looks like it is floundering.  Right now in agriculture, everyone is measuring their "carbon footprint".  In the next 10 years we expect to be measuring "water footprint" as well.  Water will be the next "global warming".

Hi Yeocokent

Re Carrs Milling. Watch the spread. It's usually pretty wide.

I use this progam as a quick indicator of the "Break Even" point.

http://www.monkeyjob.com/StocMonk.html


You input all your own variables/charges including the currency (£,$,or €).
Select “Variables” then “File.”

"ERII" it's one who's time has yet to come.

ATB