Black Swans...

[MetalMeister]

Interesting site, I put it on my list to watch.

Williams was vague in that clip, way back when.  He quoted the elite guy as saying that even though oil went down to $34 it was still $50 and even though oil rose to 70+ it was still $50 and tried to say that was due to deflation.  I understand clearly that we have had both deflation and inflation over the last 3 years but I never did understand how this elite guy was saying that when oil was $70+ it was still $50 unless it was related to that period of time when the dollar was stronger.

Was just searching for anything Lindsey Williams has done recently and found that he apparently has a Facebook page:

http://www.facebook.com/pages/Lindsey-Williams/211329225608

and a blog:  http://lindseywilliams101.blogspot.com/

You'll notice the last entry in the blog is in July.  I am betting the Facebook page is not really Williams as all it is are daily news entries. 

Williams has gone strangely silent since July and that would seem, most likely, to be a lack of a conspiracy to play up in the Gulf.  Or he is fearing for his life in lieu of the death of Matt Simmons.

I am beginning to doubt this guy but I have a very suspicious mind.

But you still have to wonder about the timeliness of the "murder"/drowning of Matt Simmons in his hot tub...

http://perfectstockalert.undergodincorporated.com
http://perfectstockalert.undergodincorporated.com/index.php/nightly-market-analysis

Didn't the “Lindsey Williams” clip which you posted predict a big slump in the price of oil?
Oil will be considerably lower by this years end he said then (in February).

ATB 

[sunseeker]

Hi there SW "n" YC

I hoped that you would find http://perfectstockalert.undergodincorporated.com/ interesting.
I came across the site through a chance conversation with a trainee broker on my travels in Glasgow. I even found the TA interesting. Perhaps you can teach an old dog new tricks after all (LOL). The site seems to have received the BHSH seal of approval, which is always a good sign (since I hold your opinions in high regard).

Re: Martin Armstrong. Well spotted YC. I might start calling you “Eagle Eye.”
Jim Rogers has commented that he has no connection with the Jim Rogers blogspot (http://jimrogers1.blogspot.com). He doesn't even know who writes it but as long as the site continues to post his articles/interviews and doesn't publish anything which he wouldn't approve of then he's happy for it to continue.

The Adverts:
If you ever visit Glasgow this is a real must visit place:
http://www.glasgowlife.org.uk/museums/our-museums/burrell-collection/Pages/home.aspx

I learnt more about art and artefacts after an hour with the museum guide Morna (she's an unpaid volunteer) than through reading any book. The café/restaurant serves excellent food and is very good value for money.

http://www.thebeardmore.com/

One of the hotels receptionists Heather (lucky for the man in her life), is an absolute gem. She'll recommend all the best places to go. She says it's worth it to see the look on your faces the morning after.

A look you won't have the morning after if you stick with quality drink. You know what I mean by that by now. 

ATB 

[MetalMeister]

Be sure to read both pages.

http://www.businessinsider.com/how-hyperinflation-will-happen-in-america-2010-9

[MetalMeister]

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/11-million-mortgage-holders-underwater-backed-29-trillion-mortgage-debt

[MetalMeister]

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/marc-faber-i-think-we-are-all-doomed

Video:  http://www.zerohedge.com/article/marc-faber-i-think-we-are-all-doomed?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+zerohedge/feed+(zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline,+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero)&utm_content=Google+Reader

All who enjoy hearing a meaty Marc Faber fire and brimstone sermon, that cuts through the bullshit, will be happy to know that the Gloom, Boom and Doom author conducted a 40 minute interview with the McAlvany Financial Group, which covers all the usual suspects: gold, silver, precious and industrial metals, the "crack up boom", the future of the Ponzi and capital markets in general and much more. Of course, it wouldn't be a Faber interview without the requisite soundbite: "I think we are all doomed. I think what will happen is that we are in the midst of a kind of a crack-up boom that is not sustainable, that eventually the economy will deteriorate, that there will be more money-printing, and then you have inflation, and a poor economy, an extreme form of stagflation, and, eventually, in that situation, countries go to war, and, as a whole, derivatives, the market, and everything will collapse, and like a computer when it crashes, you will have to reboot it." Of course, on a long enough timeline...

Key extract from the Faber speech:

I think we are all doomed.  I think what will happen is that we are in the midst of a kind of a crack-up boom that is not sustainable, that eventually the economy will deteriorate, that there will be more money-printing, and then you have inflation, and a poor economy, an extreme form of stagflation, and, eventually, in that situation, countries go to war, and, as a whole, derivatives, the market, and everything will collapse, and like a computer when it crashes, you will have to reboot it.

For the investor, the question is: How do I navigate through this complete disaster that is going to unfold?  And I think if you look at different asset classes – real estate, equities, bonds, cash, precious metals – I suppose that you have to be diversified.  I think real estate in the U.S. may go down another 10% or so, or even 15%, but I am always telling people, if you can buy the piece of land or the house you like, what do you actually care if it does down another 10%?  If everything I bought in my life had only gone down 10-15%, I would be very rich, because a lot of things became worthless, especially loans to friends, and bonds, and so forth.

Look at the history, for example, of Germany, for the last 100 years.  They had World War I.  They had the hyper-inflation in World War II.  The bond-holders got wiped out three times.  If you owned Siemens, and you still own Siemens today, it was not a fantastic investment, but at least you still have something.  You were not wiped out.  I think that in equities you will be better off because you have an ownership in a company, than by being the lenders to companies, and the lenders, especially, to governments.
Faber on the key distinction between nominal and real, which nobody on CNBC seems to grasp yet, why gold now is cheaper than it was in 1999, and on the Dow and gold reaching parity.

In a money-printing environment, it is very difficult to know what is actually cheap and what is expensive.  Is the price of wheat high, or is it low?  Inflation-adjusted, it is extremely low.  In nominal terms, it is relatively high.  I believe that, in March 2009 when the S&P was at 666, the market was actually much cheaper than is generally perceived, because of the money-printing, and I do not anticipate that we will see 666 on the S&P again, in nominal terms.

In other words, they are going to print so much money that the S&P could be at, perhaps, 2000, but in real terms, it could be down below the lows of March 6, 2009.  Maybe in gold terms, we could one day reach a ratio of Dow Jones to gold of 1-to-1, as we were in 1980.  In other words, the Dow could be perhaps at 10,000 or 12,000, and gold could be at the same level.

That is why I am advising people to accumulate gold.  Can gold have a correction?  Yes, there has been a little bit too much euphoria about gold, and we may have a correction, but I do not think we are in a bubble in the price of gold.  In fact, I could make a case that gold, at this level of $1400 an ounce, is cheaper than in 1999, when I look at the unfunded liability growth of the U.S., at the credit growth of the U.S., and at the household growth, and at the money printing, and at all the wealth creation that happens in China and Russia.

[sidewinder]

marc-faber-i-think-we-are-all-doomed

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NmZRDUO1wGQ   

[MetalMeister]

Faber's comment was dead on...

Here is what China is going to do with that 3+ trillion dollars:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/china-proposes-cut-two-thirds-its-3-trillion-usd-holdings

All those who were hoping global stock markets would surge tomorrow based on a ridiculous rumor that China would revalue the CNY by 10% will have to wait. Instead, China has decided to serve the world another surprise. Following last week's announcement by PBoC Governor Zhou (Where's Waldo) Xiaochuan that the country's excessive stockpile of USD reserves has to be urgently diversified, today we get a sense of just how big the upcoming Chinese defection from the "buy US debt" Nash equilibrium will be. Not surprisingly, China appears to be getting ready to cut its USD reserves by roughly the amount of dollars that was recently printed by the Fed, or $2 trilion or so. And to think that this comes just as news that the Japanese pension fund will soon be dumping who knows what. So, once again, how about that "end of QE" again?

[MetalMeister]

http://beforeitsnews.com/story/1352/582/65_Chance_of_Banking_Crisis_by_End_of_Month:_Researchers.html

[MetalMeister]

Prepare for riots in euro collapse, Foreign Office warns

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/8917077/Prepare-for-riots-in-euro-collapse-Foreign-Office-warns.html

[sunseeker]

Prepare for riots in euro collapse, Foreign Office warns

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/8917077/Prepare-for-riots-in-euro-collapse-Foreign-Office-warns.html

Goldman's Sigma X Hints Who The Next Contagion Target Is


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/goldmans-sigma-x-hints-who-next-contagion-target




The problem is so deep and so widespread, and that's dragging out this whole sorry mess.  So when the end comes it will be “unexpected”, shocking, and very brutal. Unexpected in so much that bad news from any one of the prime suspects hasn't as yet led to the catastrophic outcome that will inevitably  come. So the trigger is likely to come from a hitherto unlikely source. A Purple/Pink/Red Swan? 

I been in Liverpool on a bit of a culture vulture trip.

Is anyone else getting my feeling that Gold and in particular Silver are at or very close to the bottom here? I'm feeling lucky after a chance visit to a supermarket today. Hold your breath because I kid you not. This weeks special offer Jack Daniels 70cl bottles 25% off ( unsually off the price not the contents  )..........

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0yyhOtPAXK4

 

Really great posting while I've been absent.
James Turk/Kyle Bass/and OakshireFinancial (on my watch list/email now).

JDH the camping video is so funny. 

This is another holiday that you couldn't pay me to go on.........

http://www.ice-lodge.co.uk/Ice-Hotel-Norway.aspx


ATB 

[sunseeker]

Preparations under way for Greece's exit from the EURO......

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/11/icap-testing-trades-in-greek-drachma.html

ICAP is the latest firm to disclose such preparations, joining the growing ranks of banks, governments and other key players in the global financial system whose officials are worried enough about the stability of the common currency to be making contingency plans for a possible break-up.

                       


ATB 

[MetalMeister]

'out together dancing, out together dancing, out together dancing cheek to cheek......!"

Definitely a favorite of mine.   

Is anyone else getting my feeling that Gold and in particular Silver are at or very close to the bottom here? I'm feeling lucky after a chance visit to a supermarket today. Hold your breath because I kid you not. This weeks special offer Jack Daniels 70cl bottles 25% off ( unsually off the price not the contents  )..........

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0yyhOtPAXK4

 

Here are the COTs of silver for this past week.

Notice the declines in short positions.  i don't want a bottom yet.  Not sure what to do at this point.  Still holding powder...

http://news.silverseek.com/COT/1322513149.php

[MetalMeister]

Hmmmmmm...   

http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/12/gold-chart-and-thoughts.html

[JDH]

Yes, the technicals for gold look quite scary.  Two thoughts:

First, some of the charts out there are weekly charts, so we'll need to wait until the end of the week to see how much actual damage has been done.

Second, do technicals matter in a manipulated market?  If I was one of the Big Boyz, I'd want to artificially drop the market below key technical support levels to scare the weak hands into selling.

HINT: That would then be a great time to buy, before the market rockets back upward.

Perhaps.

[MetalMeister]

I think we are getting down to the endgame, I really do.

With the FED possibly bailing out a bank in EU:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/did-fed-quietly-bail-out-bank-tuesday

then the jig is up.

I posted these scenarios on another forum:

The first thing I thought of when I read and posted that was I think that means they know it's endgame time.

By that, they might be doing one of two things

1. giving EU a little under the table encouragement to come together and save the union and do it fast.

2. a bank was so bad that they had to bail it now because if they did not the contagion would spread like wildfire so fast that EU would never even get a chance to come together.

3. they know it is over and this is just the start of the FED trying to protect US banks now from what is to come.

Thoughts?

And JDH, to respond to your question, I believe that technicals still matter but more of trying to figure out what's not going to happen rather than what is going to happen.

So far in my reading this weekend I am not seeing a lot of predictions as to what PMs are going to do in the short term.

So, I will predict and stick my neck out there.

2012 Q1 will be really rocky and may be the last chance that any of us have to get out of paper and 100% into phyzzzzz.

I think the PM money shot to the nearest moon is not that far off.

I think the EU is going down and their infected banks as well.

The FED will try to put things off a few more weeks to no avail and then they will need to flush the US banks with cash as a huge mushroom cloud rises over everything Europe.

And that's all I have to say about that.....