COT Commitment of Traders Reports

[MetalMeister]

I thought I had a thread for COT reports but maybe not in this forum...

Here is what I posted elsewhere today:

Latest COT report.

http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1324672359.php

It is very clear that the weak hands are leaving the longs in a big way.

The commercial banks are picking up longs in a big way and getting out of the shorts that they can while they can as the price continues to come down while the "Good Guys" are buying for delivery. They know what is coming.

Over the first 3 weeks of December the large speculators have picked up a net of 9932 longs. That number alone represents $1.6 billion and the COMEX only has $2.7 billion physical in the vaults.

The "Good Guys" are getting close to their goal for delivery and then I predict all Hell will break loose and gold and silver shoot to the moon.

The end is not far off.

[MetalMeister]

Not a lot of action this past week but the get out of dodge trend continues!

BUT, look at the annual trend:

At the start of 2011, open interest in gold was 594,490 ounces and silver was 137,918 ounces.

http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1325277160.php

At the end of 2011, open interest in gold is 418,945 ounces and silver is 103,993 ounces!

http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1294088169.php

That difference is 175,545 less contracts in gold.

Expressed as a percentage 30% of all futures contracts in gold have disappeared.

On the total open interest side (including options) I saw another interesting number.

At the start of 2011 total open interest was 803,377.

On August 5th total open interest was 817,915.

As of last nights report total open interest is 624,191.

That is a 24% decline in open interest in just 5 months!

Will there be a COMEX at the end of 2012?

Or are the people in the know getting out of dodge?

[MetalMeister]

As I mentioned above, I have been examining COT data and finally got around to inputting everything from December 2008 to present.

Created a chart of gold that shows the long and short levels of each Commercial, Large Speculator, and Small Speculator as contrasted with the price of the metal.

We hear so much from so many newsletter writers about the COT reports but never see anything graphical over time about what the whole so-called manipulation scheme looks like.

Well, here it is!

The most obvious point, to me, still is that since July 2010 the commercials have unwound a huge position in their shorts.

Need more eyes than the two I've got!

Would be interested in some of you chart types telling me what you see here...  

[sunseeker]

Hi MM
As you know I don't profess to understand TA.

However I've just come across this article which may go some way to answering your question. 

Elliott Wave Analysis (only published today).

http://goldswitzerland.com/index.php/what-about-silver-alf-field-febr-2012/

Thus the gain in wave 3 of Major THREE should be larger than +464%. It should be a gain of at least 500%. Starting from the $26.39 low, a gain of 500% would produce a target price of $158.34 for silver. That is the number which equates with the $4500 price forecast for gold and produces a silver to gold ratio of 28.4 ($4500 divided by 158.34).

                                                               


ATB 

[MetalMeister]

I had earlier read a blurb on KWN mentioning Alf Fields and this EW analysis so thanks for the full article.

I hear what he is saying but cannot see it.  I don't know anything about EW.

I have been reading everything I can get my mouse on, in recent weeks, and it is all sort of starting to sound the same to me.

One thing that started standing out to me in recent days is that all the talking PM bull heads seem to be saying things are about to explode but I am yet to read a one of them that gives an intelligent answer as to why things may be about to explode upward.

I thought that by examining the COT history database I created I would be better able to explain price of gold and silver better by observing the price as compared to the historical movement in the COTs shorts and longs.

Not sure at all if I have come up with anything!!

You would think that if the market is as manipulated as they say it is then the COT data analyzed over time would show an indication as to what they did and how they did it to achieve a certain price and then make a hypothesis as to what sort of action they take to effect the manipulation.  Or at least get a whiff of veiled hint.

Is that asking too much?   

Well, after staring at all this data for days I have no concrete answers and as far as I know and have read I have never seen anyone even try to attempt to put into a graph the data I display above with all three reportable entities that make a conclusive case as to how they the commercials achieve this grand scale manipulation.

Looking at that chart for gold, I see massive shorting on a consistently rising price.  What effect did the shorting have then?  Can we say that the price would have risen far higher if they had not been shorting?

I cannot quite make that conclusion because in the same chart I see massive deleveraging of shorts with a falling price.

I would expect to see price falling because of the accumulation of shorts.   

Go figure?!!

Armstrong is saying gold will go far lower.  Go figure. 

And he is one of the few who are insisting that will take place though I have not checked up on him in the last week or so.

People on other forums are ridiculing him for saying that but offer no substantive basis for the optimistic bull opinion.

What is a mother to do?

[sidewinder]

What is a mother to do?

Well I wouldn't be wringing my hands or peeking 'round the bend over any of this.

MM sorry I haven't replied to your e-mail I've been a bit under the weather lately in addition to not really understanding how you might tie the COT reports to the price movement on gold.  I guess the best answer to your questions is I really don't know how any of this is accomplished.  Good job on making the charts though.

Simply put, one might call any price artificial when expressing the value of any commodity in a fiat currency.  I almost am inclined to think the prices we see lately are more a function of the manipulation of those currencies rather than the actual value of certain "things".  Having said that, you must somehow 'express" the value in SOMETHING so I guess what we have to deal with are the currencies that prevail.  With this economic charade in place for nearly 100 years now what happens to ANYTHING price wise can at best only be a guess depending how this mess the banksters have created shakes out.  As far as what will hold value after the shakeouts we only have history to offer any idea.  This is why you see some holding the metals then changing their minds and jumping into equities then bailing out on that.  It very confusing to everyone and I thing the big bankers are just as confused and scared too.  That most especially includes the Central Banks across the globe.  It all boils down to someone's gonna get caught holding the bag and until it happens I don't believe anyone KNOWS who that will be.  One thing for sure is that humans will ALWAYS act in (what they think) is in their best interest without regard to what happens to the other guy. 

Now here's the rub;  You look around and I can't say that any conditions world wide have improved economically.  In fact, the setup is worse.  Europe is on the verge of a blowup, the FED is buying US debt and the Iran thing may come to a head anytime.  During all this the dollar goes down and the equity markets keep rolling on.  As soon as the public sees a new high in the market they will cuss and jump on the bandwagon.  THAT will be time to get worried IMO.  It's coming but not just yet in my view.   

The market is getting set up for a correction but it ain't quite there yet.  Now, that's barring some international incident of proper proportion.  Things are making a run at the November highs in gold and should that break out the August/September highs would be the target.  It will take a few weeks to get through the first part of this scenario.  The S/P futures are right now taking a second shot at breaking out so next week could bring some action.  Right now, I think it will break out but not about to place any bets on it because it's just too dangerous.  But fun to watch. 

[sunseeker]

Hi SW

Sorry to hear that you'd been feeling under the weather..

Your opinions are invaluable.

Good to have you back.


ATB 

[MetalMeister]

Started writing a column for SilverDoctors today. 

Let me know what you guys think!

http://silverdoctors.blogspot.com/2012/03/guest-post-gold-silver-cot-analysis.html

[sidewinder]

Hi SW

Sorry to hear that you'd been feeling under the weather..

Your opinions are invaluable.

Good to have you back.


ATB 

Thanks, SS .... Doc gave me a pill that stopped the stomach pain but have a bunch of test and other lab work to go through.  Right now just enjoying the ability to eat what I want, when I want.  Actually, I'm trying to stay off the computer as much as possible. 

[sidewinder]

Started writing a column for SilverDoctors today. 

Why?     

[MetalMeister]

Just having fun disseminating the information and hoping for some feedback that might give to me or cause me to think about ideas being able to project what the future Commercial's move will be for the price of PMs.

And I enjoy writing.

Why do you ask why?  

You surprise me...

[sidewinder]

It's just that it takes up so much time to put out something like that is why I questioned it. 

Plus, with things like that it won't be long before you have to either defend your position or ignore detractors, there's always some who troll or nit pick.  That all ... ...  It was a good narrative, show and tell numbers and I will have to look deeper into your thoughts on it so I will just have to follow it for a while.  The COT stuff is all Greek to me.

[MetalMeister]

I will make it simple for ya, flyboy!  

So far just nice comments and people asking questions.  Even a couple of positive remarks from industry insiders.  That will take some time as it is a lot of data to conceptualize.  Most people don't have a good feel for what the futures market is like and the big open interest numbers confuse them.

If I start figuring out how the Morgue does what they do and when, I might go proprietary newsletter writer.  It would be a heck of a good tool to play the options with if it pans out.

Will probably come to nothing...

[sunseeker]

Started writing a column for SilverDoctors today. 

Let me know what you guys think!

http://silverdoctors.blogspot.com/2012/03/guest-post-gold-silver-cot-analysis.html

Let me put it this way.
If I had stumbled across the article and I didn't know who'd penned it?

I'd have felt compelled to post the link to the article here.

Great explanation of how the spot price is determined..........

Nice one M. 


ATB 

[sunseeker]

Hi SW

Sorry to hear that you'd been feeling under the weather..

Your opinions are invaluable.

Good to have you back.


ATB 

Thanks, SS .... Doc gave me a pill that stopped the stomach pain but have a bunch of test and other lab work to go through.  Right now just enjoying the ability to eat what I want, when I want.  Actually, I'm trying to stay off the computer as much as possible. 

 I hope we get the Sidewinder back to feeling on top form in double quick time.

Best wishes.