Dines Capitulating (sort of )

[dananini]

Well, it's finally happened.I've had a few cold ones tonight, but as I read it, dines is explicitly recommending to sell into the next rally.He still says to buy the stuff on pg. 16 (alberta-star, etc), but in the text he advises heading for the hills. What does one do if you still own some of his recs.? C'mon fellas, this is important.

[davidslane]

I don't get Dines' newsletter anymore so I don't know if you mean he is saying get out of the stock market except for his recommendations or get out completely.

If the case is just get out of non commodities (thus staying in his commodity picks), then I agree with him.



I think the stock market rallies (or goes sideways) into Labor Day and then has another big correction.

But I think commoditiy stocks will hold up well over the next 2 years, so, yes, I would get out of the market in the next rally except for commodity stocks (and maybe lighten up some of those).


I of course have a very different opinion of what commodity stocks to own though, and his pick are not it.


But there is nothing in the economic cards that suggests the general equity markets should be higher in 2 years than they are today.  How we get there with drops and rallies is another story.

[jjj000]

dan, I just read the letter.  Dines only recommends selling the general market/DJIA type securities, on the next summer bounce.  *NOT* uraniums or gold, etc.  Dines is not capitulating at all... that's a pretty big mischaracterization.

In fact, his call is nothing different than what many of us here, david and myself included, have been saying for a while... and that's DJIA==11000.

The rest of his position appears entirely unchanged to me, with some minor notes about possible Fed raising rates, and its possible short term impact.

This also, is nothing different than what many of us here have been saying.  Why am I paying for it again???   

Again though, curiously, he fails to mention anything about fertilizers, food, or water.  Meanwhile, Pinetree is buying into Potash juniors.  Curious.  Maybe Dines is building positions before making rec's...

[richmanch]

I don't think Dines has his finger on the pulse anymore, no matter if he says buy or sell uranium or the Dow.

He's getting old. I mean, people retire. This is a tough game, and this last year was a pretty bad shit storm. What's he, in his seventies? (I just checked--looks like born in 35; also doesn't seem to be a wikipedia entry; dude deserves a wikipedia page--if anyone has time this weekend...).
People don't perform as well when they get that age.

He should retire. He should hire new guns and sell them the brand name. I'd suspect that someone else is pulling some strings, and loading up before the break outs--I just don't believe that this guy in his seventies is orchestrating some money-making plan. He's out of touch. Anyone who listened to that interview that was posted a while back has heard all that they need to hear--a guy who seemed extremely bitter, and an interviewer who thought he was interviewing jesus. It was not helpful investing information. Dines could retire and show up once a year at a mining conference and be the oracle. Is rep is still intact. quitting while you're ahead is not the same as just quitting.

[bigbwe]

Peter Brimelow refers to Dines as an octogenrarian in his latest article on Dines:

"The original uranium (and gold) bug is under pressure, again. But he's holding firm, for now.
Those entomological praise names are among many that James Dines, octogenarian editor of the Dines Letter, has bestowed upon himself."

[Sagi]

I have mixed feelings regarding Dines. On the one side I do think credit should be given where  credit is due and he did make some good calls in the past, but when the stars turn against you there is nothing anyone can do.

Lately Dines letter seem more and more confusing. E.g there is no background or any analysis on the companies he recommended lately. Next there are no features on any of the companies either. No updates etc.

Casey on the other hand does give some very structured arguments while Dines does not. so where is Dines credit. His credit emerges from twenty years ago in gold and 10 years ago from Uranium. I agree there appears to be someone else actually pulling the strings at TDL. The fact that the face remains covered does not instill any confidence and in the long run I see the demise (sadly) of TDL. I will be sorry to see them go.

Many of the stocks that appear to be having upside have been dropped and ones like PNP continue to be buys which perplexes me. UUU was a great stock, its been surviving and holding on like most others it is down yet dines threw it out, no specific reasons for this the same with ACAP and Western metals having been in for a short term they were dumped.

A few days ago ACAP pointed out that their resource exceeds 90 million pounds. Infact Dines mentiones ACAP in one of his IWB's recently does this mean its back in because it does not appear in the latest Dines list. This leads to more confusion. The strategy also does not look too structured either there mills confusion and cloudyness that leaves subscribers directionless. it is not enough to simply state buys and sells, honestly we need some justification here, this is not forthcoming in TDL at the present.

SAGI

[Depleted]

dananini and others...
Well, regarding Dines stocks,...if you can do better on your own, you should, as you would be the envy of everyone on this board, everyone who looks/reads this board, and especially me. The name Punter comes to mind firstly, but I am sure there are others who are very good also. Anyone who can master this stuff in my mind is brilliant, especially if they can understand Global Politics that change with the wind, and how they affect the markets. Positioning yourself ahead of the herd is not that easy. Dines is the oldest running active investment newsletter of its kind, period. His system simple, just not that easy.  If you want to slam Dine's, then do it while looking at a 4 year chart on any of his group 2 stocks. Then give your head a shake, and reread your tdl again. Maybe you will be able to drink upstream ahead of the herd...
All kidding aside, I think long term charts best reflect Dine's system, and it 's up to you to really be on top of what he refers to as Visual Analysis.
Dines expects you to do your homework, to become a serious investor, and we all need to keep that in mind when we sometimes glance at his tdl, then blow it off as more idle chit chat. It all takes time, and as Dine's says "We all live our lives in the same 24 hour period".
Sometimes I look back 6 months or so, and look at the market conditions, then reread the TDLs from that time, and take notes. You can learn a lot from rereading you old tdls.
Here is a good tip....One thing I can say, it seems a lot of very important information is written in the smallest font size.
GLTA...Depleted
Kepp

[punter]

Hi Depleted, thanks for the vote of confidence, I think. In fact I'm going sideways through the summer with the bouncy - bouncy between O&G and Financials . If it wasn't for the dividends and distributions I would not be happy at all.

I just got back from a long vacation in Hawaii, I 've tried my best to watch the beach babes more than the market, and succeeded.  I look a bit like Al Jolson in this very wasp neighborhood of mine. I  can tell you all that the quality of bikini babes in Hawaii is still world class. It's nice to know that in the midst of chaos there are some islands of reason and stability. God bless Hawaii and half naked young women everywhere..

When I left the board I said I'd probably see a flat market in total value terms for the summer months. It's not over yet but it looks like I may get my wish.

I am looking at a tale of two markets. The public markets which are fraught with fear and rightly so due to the credit markets which continue to contact. The buisness fundamentals on the other hand are very positive as far as earnings have shown us recently. O&G issues in particular are getting into extremly undervalued territory. Gold can't catch a break but will if the news on a doubling of the deficit comes about this year. Whoever has been managing golds range bound action is not going to keep up with this charade forever. This dichotomy says to me that a very big upside correction will take place at some point. O&G co's in particular. Having cash will a very good thing. I think the bell WILL ring this next time so don't be impatient, wait for it. Look for a day/week/month where the DOW falls 1-2K to the 10K mark points between now and Oct. Then buy with both hands.

I bought Nokia recently after having bought an N71. It makes the Blackberry look like a charcoal stick and a cave wall. If you care to look at Nokias recent numbers you may agree that things there look positive.

So, blah blah blah, what does it all mean to me? I'm stll buying in very small increments selectivley. I see I'm not alone as someone recently put 42 million into PNP at $2.40. I am cashing up because I also think we may see an actual capitulation at some point for a yet unknown socio psychological catalyst like a 911 market kneejerk but for different reasons. I believe that the G8 will try to engineer a hard landing to reprice materials and thusly reprice inflation. This will be unsuccessful and very shortlived, although it will be look like Armageddon in the markets particulrily for sensitive investors having either magin or immediate needs to sell. Mutual Funds will really feel the heat from redemptions.

A real savaging of the markets early this fall in September/Octbober could set and major (40/50%) rally going into the PresidentiAL election. Short memories make for an easily manipulated populace. Did anyone ever read the communist manifesto? Marx decided to go one up on Maciavelli and recommend that a government should creat chaos and constant fear so that the state may easily control the populace. Anyone see any corelations with the current state of affairs. War, chaos and sheep hmmmmmmmm bad combination.

Further out , we're safe with holding U's , O&G, PM's AG,s and financials. this is going to be at least a five year play. Individual years aren't going to be pretty but the 5 year average will loook decent enough. The backgrounding in nuclear is showing us that we will get there eventually, which is why I will continue to grow shares in increments along this extended bottom. BOYO, this is what you call patience investing. Don't dig yourself to big a hole. This may be a 5 year time when cash is king you may want to collect stocks and not be forced to sell at the wrong times.


Did I get too much sun boyz, let me know what you think.

[jjj000]

Welcome back, Punter.  Sun is good.

DJIA 10250 was my next target after it retested 11700, so I am right on board with you there.

I don't know how "safe" holding onto PMs, OG, ferts and financials are though going into that.  I already dug myself a big hole with the U's as it is, so I don't have the mental luxury of taking much more loss, even if it is just on paper.

So right now I am cash and short-minded until things turn around.  Oct/Nov was the timetable I had in mind though as well for that turn.

[Bottomfeeder]

Welcome Back Punter

and bingo.

This is a patience game we will be rewarded for holding onto the sectors that you mentioned.

It is getting near time to load up on the financials, upon the next correction, as stocks will continue to be ahead of the news to the upside.  Hold core positions and stay in the things that you believe in.

I am looking to sell ala raise as much cash as makes sense towards the end of August probably and maybe into a September rally, as I expect a rocky market around the elections.

I will be looking to diversify from the metals market and into more financials.  Also still believe strongly in the long term value of technology, as it will continue to be the root of all productivity and a necessity for corporate development and competitiveness, globally.  I will however seek an exit from all tech, when the QQQQ's approach the $50 level, and re-seek a better entry point later.

I will continue to steer away from being a stock picker and try to do better as a sector picker, buying XLK for financials, and indexes on gold and silver double leverage at either extreme levels, as best as possible, instead of picking miners.

Jeez, I think I am about to break out the pledge of allegience in a sec....oh well thats the plan.

Sorry, but I am feeling bullish right now.  Don't play with the money you need.

[punter]

3j3o you may want to try to start buying stocks that pay divs and trusts that pay dists so that you aren't caught with your pants down with every  market. Cash flow gives you the opp to bend with the breeze. My own exp has led me to plan around 5 year moves, allways keep 2 to 3 years cash and short bonds so that your not under pressure to sell when a market flushes out the weak hands. Fundamentals don't change. Oil supply is still 85 million demand 85 supply. No new gold is coming out of the ground, govs are still printing your dollars worthless. World pop is 9 billion in 2011 who's going to feed them all and keep them warm. Water....don't get me started. The Chinese say " Lets find the truth from the facts", makes sense to me. Preparing for the future doesn't have to be an accident, why should investing.

Bottomfeeder, ditto on tech. I like wireless everything. I am buying CDN financials, waiting still for US issues. Housing news will get much worse before it gets better. But...there will be some big winners from the consolidations. There will be several more casualties , so pick your ponies with care. be patient with your cash. I highly rec the beaches of Maui to waste some time while you wait.

GLTA

[jjj000]

good advice punter... tho honestly I've had trouble finding any divvies or distributions out there whose principal stock is not tanking more than the payments amount to   I made the mistake of trying some preferred shares in banking... which didn't work out so well.  Heh.  Energy trusts I think are on the way down... but you're right, it's a smart approach.

On another note... this declining Euro is really wreaking some havoc on my predictions.  Something I had wondered about earlier was the declining value of the euro, and how that will effect prices even as the USD declines in value.

The rub being that the euro at some point will decline faster than the USD, and prop up the dollar relative to it-- since as someone aptly noted, eurozone economy is a couple years behind the US in the cycle.  The old "whose currency is more in the crapper" game.

This seems to be what is going on this week, and may very well blow holes in the energy sector.  I think such a trend brings oil down, which is bought mostly in USD, but sends gold up, which is bought in whatever.

Thoughts?

[Cakster]

FDG has been mentioned here before. It pays a nice dividend, and has been moving nicely. It's too late to buy it now as it is being bought out, but the question now I have for Punter is, will you sell before the buyout or will you hold? My newsletter is saying sell now.

[sunseeker]

As always you can always rely on Punter for sound advice (as you all probably know
I have many doubts, and issues with newsletters, but if Punter started one up I would be very interested).

I bought a load of gold ETFs today at the $893 an ounce mark. I was watching the Kcast metal prices indicator which Davidslane kindly drew our attention to, and saw the opportunity. David says that it lags the spot by 15mins but I have found that sometimes here in the UK the market must be asleep, and on occasions such as today it seems to actually lead at least one of the ETFs if you are awake.
So many thanks again to our Hero member.
If you are patient the opportunity for profit (a pull back) seems to happen at about the same time every year. DYOR but I don’t envisage a better time in the year to buy gold right than now.

Sunseeker.

[pinetree]

I agree great buying opps coming in gold, though shorting gold via DZZ has been good to me the past couple of weeks.  The miners are really hurting... I'm shocked at how badly AEM has been beaten up of late...

Welcome back, punter.  Appreciate the advice, I'm pretty much on the same page but it's nice to hear a more experienced voice confirming things.  By the way... would you mind giving us your two cents on options?  Some of us are very interested in them as short-term trading vehicles.  David's given us some great advice but I figure the more opinions we can get the better...