Half-Point Fed.Cut

[dananini]

While the "other" markets rejoice, all we can do is continue to lament.

[jjj000]

very Conan the Barbarian-ish post... what is best in life dananini?

I suspect we continue to hear the lamentations of the uranium juniors simply because of the downward pressure on the spot price...

That, and b/c everyone is still regarding this sector as dead, until we see a rally of at least a good week, and our next low is higher than the previous low.

I really wish the US Gov't would come in and buy back all that uranium they sold into the spot market last year.  Could you imagine... selling all that stuff at the high, and then coming in and buying it back now at the low!??!  It'd be like they almost knew what they were doing!!!!  Crazy...

[dananini]

Thank you jjjooo.Good man.But i have to say we(US) only sold .5 milion tons (nothing) back in late july.I'm gonna stop cryin' around here tho, because you're connan analogy is embarrassing and true.

[john77]

Dananini,

I think we are ALL crying around here... but I liked the post a while back from someone else on how they were feeling "quite well" with a double dose of anti-anxiety pills. I believe that was the big drop on the TSX before the emergency fed rate cut in the US.

But most of us are in the same boat. Except for Richmanch and Adriandunn, who sold at the top in May.

[richmanch]

I sold some stuff last spring--wish I bailed out completely.

I've been taking beatings too. I was always around 10% in uranium, until the end of 07 when i thought tax loss selling was overdone, and I bumped up my holdings. It worked pretty good for ASX and CHX and LAM, but things started to sour quickly for others and I bailed all the way down to 5%. I'm nibbling a little these days. 

I closed my short positions. I think the bottom might be in (not necessarily for U's). Nasdaq reached a 20% decline the other day. Officially/technically a bear market. I'm moving pretty carefully.

[megadeth]

john77

That was me... now no matter what my dosage is, I'm crying too.  I'm buying what I thought were good deals, and I just watch them go lower.

I took some profits last week when the mini-rally occurred.

I too have over 70% losses in my portfolio, heavy in uranium, but lucky there are only paper losses, not realized ones.

Having read Dines' Mass Psychology book, I hold on to my shares with the hope that we are near a bottom.  "Hope" is a very bad word, and I know that. Like Davidslane mentioned, the chatter on this board is increasing.  That is something I have noticed to.. in very bad times and in very good times, the amount of chatter on message boards tend to increase.

With the increasing recession (we ARE in a recession), I suppose the chatter will intensify.

Punter's posts are always very informative, and my anxiety has increased a lot (my fault) after reading his posts regarding Dines and some of the slime out there, taking our money.  I subscribe to Dines and his IWB's.

Some of my stocks get slightly over what I paid for, and I hang on, thinking it will continue to go up a bit more to make some money.  Then they slip down another 10-20%.

My problem is knowing when to sell.  Buying is very easy, but selling is hard. 

There are many discussions on this board about when to sell.  Sell when the stock goes down 20% from its recent high.  That can happen in a day, and then it can go up by 30% in the next couple days.  You lose 20%, and then you try to buy back into the rally.  Doesnt seem to work very well, so I don't do it.

But I need a new strategy.  One of the posts mentioned a $0.06 spread on one of the Toronto stocks - buying 5000 shares and selling 6 cents later.  I have tried that too, but my luck hasn;t been that great... usually it becomes a 6 cent loss or greater.  That potential $300 profit becomes a greater loss - all on paper though of course, but some of it is realized losses.

Do we cash out, realizing 70% loss?  Then watch the market slide down?  Or do we hold, watching it go down further - with the "hope" (I hate that word) of a recovery? I'm in this for the long haul, but I'd also like to make some money to take my family on vacations, and enjoy life.

[langman57]

Hey Megadeath, nice post. You've spoken your case very clearly. All I can say is, the only way I've ever made money, and was able to sleep at night, was primarily in etf's and mutual funds in RISING markets. In a bear market, like the one we're in now, it's really hard because everything goes down. I've come to realize a saying I used to use in the music business that's starting to ring true. "If you want to play in a band, do it for fun. If you make money at it, it's gravy". I know it's not what many on this board want to hear.  You need to understand, these smaller stocks are extremely high risk. In the short term, (3-5 years), Uranium is a crap shoot. For all its merits, there are still lots of obstacles. As I mentioned earlier, if I'd invested with Dines from the beginning, I'd need to wait over a quarter century to make my money back.

The current crisis is serious. I don't think we've hit a bottom yet. It's taken over 10 years to create this mess, which is now universal, and it won't sort itself out in a couple of months. The US party may be over for quite a while. Current energy and fiscal policies are weak at best, and it's an election year. I know you think 20% is too dangerous. But unless your willing to lose it all, it's a pretty good barometer. (I do think Gold still has promise.) Otherwise, I would just park my money and wait this one out. Of course, there's always the option of playing in a band..

John77 - if all you get is an answering service, what does that tell you?

[davidslane]

Here's my four cents.

1) There are some big issues involving banks, bond insurers, and the levels of cash these folks need to stay in business.  We are not done.  As more bond insurers go insolvent, banks will have more write downs and will need more cash.  The credit crisis is far from over.

2) We're in a recession in the US.  Expect a break below the January market lows this quarter.  The recession might not be too bad, but this market needs to correct more.  Say 10,500 to 11,000 on the Dow and 1150 to 1200 on the S&P by this summer.

3) Micro cap stocks (and small caps) do awesome in bull markets and awful in bear markets.  So, don't expect risk money flowing into micro caps until the market gets its legs back.  But, micro caps (and small caps) will lead the next rally.  When, don't know.  Second half on 2008? 2009? 2010?  Will they go down more, maybe a bit.  Use rallies to dump the weakest positions for tax losses and move into larger positions until the bear market passes.

4) Look to refinance mortgages on the next day we see a market "crash" like last week (or was that two weeks ago).

[jjj000]

Here's my inflation adjusted 2 cents... (what's that worth, half a penny now?)

When to sell:
1. when you are happy and tell all your friends about the great stocks you are invested in
2. whenever the share price, stochastic chart, and MACD chart all peak at the same time


When to buy:
1. if I knew one this I wouldn't be whining on this board