Listening to Dines on CKNW now...

[john77]

So Dines is saying right from the get-go:

The way to get rich in the markets is to get in early in bull markets. He quotes a stock going from 1 buck to 20 bucks. He is saying that there is a "second-chance" for new buyers to get into the uranium shares since the real-estate crash unexpectedly took low-priced stocks down also. (Well, my comment is that everything went down also, including big financials )

He states we are in a "mass fear" mode, which makes sense. But then he follows with a LIE, saying that when uranium got put on the futures NYMEX market, we were headed for a consolidation. He was specifically saying buy buy buy though, including that a "buying panic is coming". Who the heck knows what he is saying nowadays!

He is constantly talking about how the demand for uranium is GROWING, and that the uraniums are still a BUY (as opposed to the HOLD he has on his latest TDL). He is blaming the crashes on "throwing the baby out with the bath water".

My favorite quote: "They are all going to go back up"

My second favorite quote: "The blue chip uraniums that I recommend" - (I didn't know there were any blue chips!!!)

Jimmy is talking about avoiding "zombie investing" where you hold forever, and that his style is 1-5 years hold time, max 10. Damn - he has been in uranium for just about 5 years hasn't he?

At any rate - www.cknw.com

[Trucker]

I listened to this as well. His interview on CKNW was also piped into the World Outlook conference. I watched another analyst yesterday on BNN who talked about the behavior of the Uranium Juniors (without a resource) that are back where they should be and that the U shortage won't manifest itself for another 10 years due to the time it takes to build N plants.

I've heard many of these types of analysts who don't specialize in the U market be all over the place when commenting on the Uranium Juniors. I always take them with a grain of salt unless they have recognized research on the topic. But this is where the current mass psychology is at and it will take a run up in the U price to begin to impact it.

For those of you who have recommended John Mauldin's writings (it's a free subscription), his piece on the recession from last Friday was a real good read. I'll quote a small bit:

"Markets go from high valuations to low valuations back to high valuations, as nauseum. You can measure it in price to book or price to earnings or whatever metric you want. The affect is the same. There has never been a time where markets started out from high valuations that they did not eventually end up with lower valuations. These cycles lasted on average for 17 years, with the shortest being 13 years (so far).

And this is important. There has never been a time when valuations dropped to the mean and then went back up again without visiting a much lower valuation. Never. Not one time. Zip.

We are now back to the mean P/E ratio. Now maybe this time it is different. But those are dangerous words.

Either one of two ways. The market can drift sideways for a long time while earnings continue to grow, or the market can drop enough to get us to lower valuations. And that is precisely what I wrote in this letter and my book 4-5 years ago. I said it would likely take two recessions (at least) to get us back to low valuations to set up the next bull market where the primary driving factor is expanding P/E multiples. Remember in the last bull market, 80% of the increase in the price of stocks can be explained as the P/E ratio rising from a low of 7 to a cycle high of 42.

If the stock market were to drop 20%, then the P/E ratio gets to 12, assuming earnings don't fall. Of course, they will, but they are also likely to rebound as quickly as they did after the last recession.

Now, let me speculate. Go back to 1974. Were we at the low in terms of valuations at that time? No, the P/E was 11, which is admittedly low, but it was going to 7 in 1982 (note that took another EIGHT years)."

[davidslane]

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