now what??

[davidslane]

I believe the margin call is based on the end of day value of your account.
Not sure what happens if your account goes up in value the next day.

[davidslane]

Seems like the worst is over.

Whew.

Of course, almost all of my gold and energy stocks are still down today.


CNBC reported that rumors are out that NY State will bail out bond insurers like Ambac and MBNA.  That's what caused the 600 point turn around on the DOW.

If was the insurance of debt that's been worrying everybody the past week.


Maybe now we can have a rally.


I'm still not comfortable with this market over the next 6 months though!

[john77]

I'm still not comfortable either, especially if the rally was staged on a rumor! To have a true end-of-day rally would be much, much more convincing for a leg up. I guess we will see.

T2108 is below twenty so it may indicate a leg up. I haven't checked on the VIX yet though.

[richmanch]

This midday reversal is otherwise a positive sign.  Some mainstream stocks had a 10-15% turnaround. Some U's bounced nicely. Some still on the gurney, hoping for a visitor. It's possible that some weak juniors, the ones still spending all their time in helicopters, will never be back.

I picked up a little more gold today, but otherwise just watched the action. Today before noon, it looked as bleak as possible. You'd think that the markets were never going to have another good day. People on TV are talking about the Weimar Republic and FDR. People at work, who have no idea what's what (like I do...at least they didn't buy boatloads of uranium), anyway they're talking about cashing out of their retirement accounts. Isn't this what a bottom looks like?

Maybe the Dow recovers 10% over the next few weeks. Maybe the uptrends for U are "confirmed," and then the trapdoor opens again and the recent lows will look like the good old days. I think most good rallies are going to get, at least, a quick haircut. No one knows--I think this is a pretty dangerous market to play. I know that I don't have to try and make a big score every week. There are always going to be more opportunities.

[punter]

Dines is calling a rally? Only a rally not 'to the moon'? Back up the truck on MGA? Wasn't he calling for a " Back up the truck" rally in MGA at $7 something. Dines Smhines, he got lucky once, his track record over the past two years is dismal. I wouldn't send him a cent or invest same in his  blab. He doesn't follow his own advice why should I. When all the trend lines broke down where was his call to sell. From what I saw he led his sheeple to massive losses, period. Maybe just to be fair, no-one should ever hold an issue 100% without a serious exit strategy. With many as always, greed got the better of them. However this does not excuse Dines from disregarding his own blabber about selling when trend lines are broken. From what I know, the sell button is still broken over at Dines Inc. Has any one got an advisory to sell his picks?

On the positive side Uranium has a positive outlook but it may be 5 years or so before the construction agenda tips the scales back to the positive for most issues. The action in pricing will be in consolidation , my opinion only, based on nothing but a rear view at other nascent industries. Heres what actually happened today.

AFTER THE CLOSE, 23 JAN 2008

Another up day but not too convincing. The two largest uranium stocks closed on the down side so we’re not sure who is leading this bounce. The day started on the down side but firmed up in the end. Tomorrow should see a follow through, at least in the early hours. Today the Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed up by 0.011 points or 0.33%, hardly anything but still a plus. There were 25 winners today and 22 losers with 3 unchanged. The five largest stocks by market value were a mixed bag. Cameco closed lower by 2.6%, Denison closed higher by 0.8%, First Uranium closed higher by 6.1%, Paladin closed higher by 5.9% and Uranium One closed lower by 3.6%. The best performer on the day was Mega Uranium with a whopping gain of 28.6% while the worst performer was Yellowcake Mining with a loss of 11.4%.

The intermediate term is firming up but still has a way to go before I can call it a turn around. This seems almost like a recording but the Index is still below a negative sloping moving average line and the momentum indicator continues inside its negative zone. The first indication of an intermediate term tuning process will be the momentum moving above its trigger line. That would not be a bull signal but just the first of a few signals before the reversal can be validated. For now I must maintain my BEARISH rating for the intermediate term.

On a short term basis we are starting to get a turn around in progress, although not quite complete yet. The Momentum indicator has crossed its trigger line on the up side but the line itself has not yet turned around. Because of the risks in whip-saws I always like to see the moving averages or trigger lines turn into the direction of the break as a confirmation of the break. This often keeps me from getting whip=sawed, but not always, nothing is ever perfect. The short term moving average line is swiftly closing in on the Index but is very steep so it might take more than a day after the break to turn this moving average around. For now I will continue with my – NEUTRAL rating. That is one level above a full bearish rating showing a little, but not too much, improvement.

I would still caution investors or speculators about jumping into this market yet. It may look very tempting but is still a very dangerous time and further surprises could easily occur.

[Croaker]

Can it get any crazier? I say it will, when? I don't know. There is just too much just under the horizon that we haven't seen yet.  I bought more gold and some Producing U's. I am sitting tight until something positive happens, really positive. I agree with Richmanch that this market is a dangerous place to play in right know. 

[richmanch]

Yeah, on closer inspection, this looks like a pretty sloppy rally for uranium. But, they do have a tendency to rally/crash a day later than the markets.

This deal with the bonds--yeah, I bet they are extremely careful handling this--they've learned their lesson. Not saying it's going to be fine, but the fed is not going to sit back and just let the banks take their medicine. Because they just puke it on everything anyway.

And welcome back punter--sorry for my past offenses.

But dude, are you Merv?

[dananini]

Punter, i'm a new fool around here, but that was a flagrant cut and paste job from his collum yeserday.

[john77]

Hi Guys,

I have to admit, and I am ashamed to admit it, but even just hearing second hand that Dines sent out an IWB to back-up-the-truck makes me feel "better" about U stocks in general. As an idiot who didn't have stops, I watched a massive profit turn into a much, much more massive loss. And hearing that Dines has the guts to send out an IWB shows his bullishness. I just wish it was for MORE stocks and not just the one.

We'll see what happens. Maybe another margin call coming? Gadge, did you pony up some cash or sell something yet to meet your call?

[gadge78]

john77...

with regards to margins... i think each institution does it differently. usually if you get a margin call you have a day or two to get your act together. for some reason CIBC has let me fly for awhile. i keep expecting them to sell something on me (that happened once). when MGA and PNP were flirting with the $3 and $5 marks i would come in and out of margin... and CIBC let that fly as i would have a margin call for only a day or two. but things are different now... been on margin call for awhile. i actually unloaded the last of my DEJ as well today. needed to sell some stuff that wasn't marginable. and with pnp crossing over $3 and UEX staying over $5, i'm hoping CIBC will just let it roll for another day.

but i have dumped a considerable amount of cash into my account to cover margins in the past. in hindsight i should have just sold to cover it... would have limited my losses.

to be quite honest... i was within minutes of transferring my entire portfolio over to a new broker i met and like at RBC. can't handle days where my account is down $27k in a day.

now... with the markets recouping some of mondays and previous U stock losses... i'm stuck doing what i do best... and being stupid and hope it goes up more. if U stocks have a few big days... it would do a lot to bring back some life into my portfolio.

just not sure the damage hasn't been done already. uranium isn't a secret to anyone. our play was to sell when the hype got huge. that can't happen now cause of all the dumb lenders out there ruining our moment!

so while dines says PNP and MGA will reach old highs... dunno if i can afford to hold on and find out.

one day at a time...

all i know is this isn't worth it. these down days affect my mood too much... and my work! so might just slowly get out and let someone run the show for me.

but stocks are like crack... can i really stay away!?

[punter]

I pasted Mervs work here because he's asked his readers to spread the word. In his own words , he wants more traffic on his site. I think he deserves the readership. He's doing what a great many of us either don't or can't  do, he's doing the work that needs be done. Thanks for the big time saver Merv.

I did preface the post with the fact that the work came from Merv, not me. Merv ( as opposed to 'The Touts')  publishes his work free and makes no hype, no prognostications and no coaching about his great insight. Make Merv a daily read. IMHO, quality information without the hype, narcissim or BS, how refreshing.

I was thinking that this was unbiased fact that comes with no opinion and was something individuals could appreciate . Apparently not. I would paste the dailies from the brokerages , but I wouldn't want anyone to think I was Cannacord or TD Securities etc.

But just for the hell of it and being a horrible guy I will tell you that many of the touts picks are on the technical insight short term bullshit watchlist at a major brokerage including PNP and DML today. As you all know technical/chartist investment information only tells you the past state of the market. It is not an accurate or reliable forecasting tool. Outside of the MACD and the more agressive stochastics for daily trading, I take most of it with a grain of salt , most chart tools are indicators not guarantees.

Having said that PNP for example is up nicely over the past few days from 2.40's into the 3's. The technicals for MGA were out two days ago. So, I don't know how much Dines IWB had to do with the move which started 48 hrs before his IWB. Maybe Dines should register for free info from the TD Securites technical insight platform. It comes by email everyday and it doesn't come with any BS attached. As Joe Friday said " Just the facts Ma'am, just the facts".

[davidslane]

Hi Punter,

I love reading other people's newsletters.
I've found that sometimes the free ones are the best, like John Mauldin's newsletters.

http://www.investorsinsight.com/



Can you provide to the group the link to Merv's newsletter?

And is there any free info posted from Cannacord and TD Securities that we can access?

Thanks for the good info!

[john77]

Hi Punter,

What do you mean by "bullshit" watchlist?

Davidslane,

Merv's link is techuranium.blogspot.com

Gadge,

Thanks for the replies, and I know what you mean by down days affecting mood. Hot baths and anxiety meds for stress here!

[punter]

The bullshit list are those issues that have come up from the analysts and are being recommended but not accumulated and those issues which have been underwritten and where a position of primary issuer is a distribution consideration. There are times as you know that a brokerage is simply selling it's own  inventory. Hence ' bullshit list' meaning do your own DD. If they aren't buying why are they telling us to? If they are selling , same question. If you're following the Level 2 action and you see that brokerage X is a big seller and you see that same issue on the days action list, what does that tell you?

There was a good book out a couple of decades ago called " Where are all the Customers Yachts?". Still a good read,  if you're ( and I don't point fingers) one of those people who doesn't know how slimy the back room is. Ever wonder why a highly touted stock suddenly goes down after the dog and pony show. Hmmmmmmmm.

With the other links , sadly you have to have an account. I am surprised though ( and this probably doesn't apply to you) at how many people do not realise that technical reports and services are offered through just about every discount brokerage. These persons sadly are the thralls of the bottom feeders and touts. Amazing why some pay for information that is generally free. I really value J. Mauldins opinion but it's a big brush he's using and I'm just a little guy. Merv on the other hand is like the guy in the next office giving you day to day info.

Have fun with this sweet rally. Will it last? My calls today are split right down the middle. The wall of worry looms large. I'm happy but I know a lot of people who literally can't sleep. The biggest crest of refi's wave in the US is coming up in march. How will the perception of risk be managed by the media? The upside is that this is the last of the big waves to hit, after this it goes down.

Was part or all of this panic in the futures pits a result of the Soc Gens 7+ billion short? One guys psycho-loser  trading put a lot of pressure on the sell side. it would appear that the markets adjusted. That 7+ billion unwind may have been what crapkicked the markets more than N. Am situation, which was a fairly shocking bit of news to me. I really thought it was the PPT again using the devilishly mysterious ' caribbean hedge funds' again. If I hurt anyone feelings at the FED I'm sorry LOL. If thats over with and people become blase to the housing numbers are we in for a prolonged rally towards the election ?

[Depleted]

Lots of the U's are in a rally. A rally that started a day or two ago. Where is this rally headed? For now, back to trend. What is the current trend? Down, like it has been since the summer. Will it breakout past the current downtrend and start into new positive uptrend territory? Maybe, only after a possible retest of the past few days, and then actually breaking above the current downtrend trendline of resistance. We maybe a month early in the timeline of the charts, before the bulls can challenge the bears again. This could be the trend change we have been waiting for, operative word, could....after all, how low can low get?....I don't see the price of uranium screaming up, so I think this is a very soft market still for uraniums, and I see no big upside coming, but all it could take is a pump or two fail at the Cameco mine...