Precious Metals

[MetalMeister]

Bart Chilton says he will speak out soon if the CFTC does not release something on silver manipulation.

There seem to be two schools of thought on the current unmitigated rise in PMs:

1.  Allowance to rise so that the big boy's can be inflated as a way of getting out of this housing crisis that threatens to send them all to Hell, add some QE2 and everything pans out better for them.  Note that the market is anticipating QE2 and pricing it in.  Will the people sit silently by as their 401ks gain value but their USD purchasing power falls?  Asleep like sheep?

2.  That strong hands have placed physical orders and the JP Morgan shorts are in serious trouble.

Any thoughts?


http://www.citywire.co.uk/money/silver-price-manipulation-public-deserves-answers/a437169?ref=citywire-money-featured-articles-list

[punter]

For now there is a lack of sellers...PM's look positive in the face of the USD.....fuck the PPP......just make more money to cover the gap......right....actually kidding but its what is happening. The market has filled in the losses of the 08 - 09 slump amd proceeeding towards 30% plus plus higher ground  in general portfolio's ...as long as you're not a straight bond/dividend guy/girl. Everything from Copper to Vietnam has been screaming.

PS NOK returned 6% last week...anyone notice?

[punter]

NOK, YRI, NCE703 big winners again. Buying is easy these days....is this the set up where the dumb money gets a hair cut......not the first time I've seen this enthusiasm turn into heartbreak

[sunseeker]

Hi Punter
Re NOK
Good job (I had noticed).

I hadn't heard of NCE703 until today:

http://sentry.ca/en/products/mutualfunds/pmgf.html?fundId=2

http://ca.moneycentral.msn.com/investor/quotes/quotes.aspx?symbol=CA:NCE703


Good day for a few of my own too PNP, GDXJ, SRI, PEZ, CZZ.

ERII has been a bit of a disappointment so far.....
 
http://www.energyrecovery.com/

Too much clean fresh drinking water about?
My present exposure is onlly at a speculative level. Just a drop in the ocean. 

I'll have to exercise patience.

ATB 

[punter]

The uranium complex has been on a stealth run as of late...hardly anyone has noticed....many were burned so badly they can't bring themselves to average down and enjoy the ride. I am watching PNP for a breakout.


Having said that the technicals of the S&P look fantastic...a rare golden cross usually portends good things when this breaks out.


I am down $5 on the water myself...but I'll continue to add over the years.....the macro on H20 is just too compelling. Ten years ago when I started to load up on gold I was spit at by some who thought I'd gone mad. Turned out to be a 30% p/a ten year run and the bang has only begun. I like the macro one water...uranium too....I am glad my gold has washed the losses of the U.....my uranium is all free now...so I can wait it out. The benefits of a diversified portfolio.

NCE703 and SPR 003 are two funds...a bit like PNP that are agressively managed and uber leveraged to gold stocks AND bullion ( silver too). I have shotgunned the market to date because the juniors are notoriously high beta and wanted the lazy mans 100% return on my money in exchange for a reasonable MER. Actually NCE703 has done 87% this year so who's quibbling?


For income I found a great PULP FUND CFX.UN-TO thaty pays a 19% yield on their successful concentration of a uber high quality ' KRAFT' paper. They have 'excess' cash and are spinning out an extra .25 cent per share dividend to unit holders. I grabbed it....but thats me and I don't advise anyone to buy stocks ( unless they're paying me of course) so do your own DD.

[MetalMeister]

Are TPTB getting ready to dump gold?  (Just my question, not theirs)

Look at the BIS increase in just a year!

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page33?oid=112890&sn=Detail&pid=102055

[sunseeker]

The uranium complex has been on a stealth run as of late...hardly anyone has noticed....many were burned so badly they can't bring themselves to average down and enjoy the ride. I am watching PNP for a breakout.


Having said that the technicals of the S&P look fantastic...a rare golden cross usually portends good things when this breaks out.


I am down $5 on the water myself...but I'll continue to add over the years.....the macro on H20 is just too compelling. Ten years ago when I started to load up on gold I was spit at by some who thought I'd gone mad. Turned out to be a 30% p/a ten year run and the bang has only begun. I like the macro one water...uranium too....I am glad my gold has washed the losses of the U.....my uranium is all free now...so I can wait it out. The benefits of a diversified portfolio.

NCE703 and SPR 003 are two funds...a bit like PNP that are agressively managed and uber leveraged to gold stocks AND bullion ( silver too). I have shotgunned the market to date because the juniors are notoriously high beta and wanted the lazy mans 100% return on my money in exchange for a reasonable MER. Actually NCE703 has done 87% this year so who's quibbling?


For income I found a great PULP FUND CFX.UN-TO thaty pays a 19% yield on their successful concentration of a uber high quality ' KRAFT' paper. They have 'excess' cash and are spinning out an extra .25 cent per share dividend to unit holders. I grabbed it....but thats me and I don't advise anyone to buy stocks ( unless they're paying me of course) so do your own DD.

Hi Punter

Re: Water....
Thanks for the words of encouragement.
It's good to hear the a supporting view of someone as sane/mad as I must be at times (some call it contrarian). LOL
Re: Paper........
You reminded me of a post that I made sometime ago:
http://buy-high-sell-higher.com/forum/general-discussion/recession-t599.0.html;msg2962#msg2962

I bought my very first physical gold at the back end of 1999 (not enough) after reading an article, and I remember the broker that I later went to work for (in compliance) saying to me “Is that wise?” It was very wise, but very lucky because I didn't know very much at all about gold at the time. In 1999 I was  working as an electrical/electronics engineer at the time I was heavily focused on the tech sector. So I got my fingers burnt (worse than that my wife didn't let it rest for a very long time), but the lessons learnt from that experience came in handy when it came to exiting the uranium sector some years later.
The brokerage firm that I eventually worked for stopped one doctor from trading after a series of disastrous trades in speculative drug companies (he lost a fortune). The same was true when a pharmacist became investor of the year some time ago. His forte was quite naturally pharmaceutical stocks. A prominent Fund Management Group backed him to manage his own mutual fund. Disastrous. It just goes to show that knowledge in your own field doesn't guarantee success (only in a bull market). The difference between theory, logic, and the reality is often chasm.

I am 100% with your shotgun approach too. I have adopted a similar approach. (Canadian)PNP, ABB, (US) GDXJ, (UK) GPM, GLC, LNRG.

I have now added a multi management Asian Hedge Fund specialist (CASA):

http://www.castleaa.com/en/caa/investment-philosophy.html
http://www.castleaa.com/uploads/media/CAA_portfolio_end_June_2010.pdf

You can't ignore Asia and this looked a good shotgun strategy 

I remain nervous of this market......
If all else fails a shotgun strategy of a different kind may be appropriate.

http://www.ruger.com/corporate/index.html

Seriously....

ATB 

[pinetree]

Great call on buying gold in 1999 SS.  You should never be afraid to tell that one to friends.  Kind of like some guys are with fishing stories or hunting trophies, those of us who trade the markets have our own claims to fame... "I bought such and such when it was only...."   or "I made xxx% one year..."

I can't help but be fascinated by the blowout stories.  Like the pharmacist you mention, I've heard of people being given a hedge fund and blowing it up because they bet all their capital on a single idea.  Unbelievable that a professional would do that!  And like the doctor, I've heard of guys who lost their house due to bad trading.  The things we do for money....

[sunseeker]

Great call on buying gold in 1999 SS.  You should never be afraid to tell that one to friends.  Kind of like some guys are with fishing stories or hunting trophies, those of us who trade the markets have our own claims to fame... "I bought such and such when it was only...."   or "I made xxx% one year..."

I can't help but be fascinated by the blowout stories.  Like the pharmacist you mention, I've heard of people being given a hedge fund and blowing it up because they bet all their capital on a single idea.  Unbelievable that a professional would do that!  And like the doctor, I've heard of guys who lost their house due to bad trading.  The things we do for money....

Hi PT
Although I'd bought a little physical gold I was also very heavily invested in the tech sector, and we know how that ended. So in the final analysis I didn't cover myself in glory. I lost about 25%. I pointed to the numerous articles in the press at the time and the stories of highly respected people losing very much more, but that didn't cut any ice with Mrs SS. It took a few years to re establish some credibility.

ATB 

America's Currency Crisis is Now Underway:

http://inflation.us/currencycrisisunderway.html

The Godfather (Alan Greenspan) pleads innocence:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/36233217#36233217

[punter]

Singapore kicks the USD in the nutz today..that was surprising...and great for gold.

SS.....I didn't locate the castle funds performance history in the docs I read through...any idea how they are doing? Many of the small company ETF's have done very well ( mid 30's) this year...low MERS. I shotgunned again and bought an International Small companies fund and it gave me 18%...better than a kick in the pants.

The U sector was up again today....is it time to 'double down....some of us have missed a few doubles.

[pinetree]

So is the $HUI officially a breakout?

The 3-year chart looks like a "classic" cup with handle pattern.  I've been watching that develop for a while and now it has finally had the breakout above 520.  Let's see if it can stick.

According the textbook TA that would suggest an eventual price target in the 850-900 range.

[sunseeker]

Singapore kicks the USD in the nutz today..that was surprising...and great for gold.

SS.....I didn't locate the castle funds performance history in the docs I read through...any idea how they are doing? Many of the small company ETF's have done very well ( mid 30's) this year...low MERS. I shotgunned again and bought an International Small companies fund and it gave me 18%...better than a kick in the pants.

The U sector was up again today....is it time to 'double down....some of us have missed a few doubles.

Hi Punter

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=CASA.L

CASA hasn't covered itself in glory (yet    ). If those hedge funds do their job properly then I hope to see gains regardless of market conditions.

Here's a good site (YC thought so too when I recommended it a while ago) for live quotes both UK and US (alas not Canada).
It's free, and streaming if you register.

http://www.shareprice.co.uk/

A couple of shotguns that I hold but failed to mention (Canada) SCP, (UK) POL, and the subscription share version of GCL (which I did mention) which goes under the ticker GCLS. Subscription shares act like warrants  but the reason that I particularly like them is that unlike warrants I can hold them in my tax free (ISA) account so any gain is tax free. Particularly satisfying on a day like today when it gained 92.31%. 

http://www.ncim.co.uk/fact/gcl.pdf

“these shares carry the right to subscribe for Ordinary Shares at 75p each in January 2010 to January 2011.”
Current SP 70.25p. The NAV was 78p on 14th October, and Kalahari (one of the holdings) jumped another 3.57% today. Making a profit on the subs a realistic proposition.

http://www.shareprice.co.uk/GCLS/GEIGER-CNTR-SUB-SH


For those who are new to this I can't emphasise just how risky the Subs are.

Bottom line:
Still think that Uranium is dead? No it's a real Sleeping Beauty that's waking up.

ATB 

[punter]

Uranium juniors sure woke up today.....they've been creeping up in stealth mode....in fact the entire energy complex did well today....is the gold market going to roll over a bit and are these profits going into U? Where did all the action come from today? All in the last hour of trade....stimulating !!!!!! The question now is it time to roll of the gold whore and double down on the U position to trade off the last of the losses.....what would the old punter do? Yeah thats right....he'd gamble.

[punter]

BTW congrats on the double up of your GCLS.....its never a bad thing when a good thing comes your way.

[MetalMeister]

Punter,

This is by Adrian Douglas of GATA fame.  Gold 36K, 60K ?

Did you see the post I did on the Bank of International settlements the other day?

2 schools of thought on that, that they may dump gold to drop the price OR they are preparing for the greatest economic disaster is history and readying the world for a gold backed one world currency.  Either way they have amassed an enormous amount of gold is a short period of time.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smGcIo2PY7E&feature=related