Sampling of 5 year 5 month Uranium performance....

[Bottomfeeder]

Description    2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   Annualized  1/1-5/29/9                     
International   41.80%   134.70%   153.90%   -30.80%   -83.80%   19.90%
   
ALBERTA ST            -26.80%   241.60%   240.00%   -69.10%   -86.20%   -2.10%           200%

BAYSWATER    0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   -30.30%   -93.50%   -34.90%          250%

CONTINENTAL PRE   7.90%   -35.40%   243.70%   -31.10%   -78.10%   -8.00%           75%

CROSSHAIR    17.90%   139.40%   259.60%   -22.20%   -92.80%   9.10%           50%

DEJOUR       109.80%   109.50%   153.60%   -32.60%   -77.30%   11.90%            0%

DENISON MINE   178.30%   75.20%   74.20%   -12.50%   -86.80%   8.80%           62%

DITEM EXPL    -53.10%   -7.70%   669.60%   26.50%   -91.90%   -5.00%           60%

FORTUNA SILVER   81.50%   313.20%   41.50%   86.50%   -82.20%   44.70%            60%

FRONTEER    101.40%   118.90%   193.90%   8.20%   -80.30%   39.20%           97%

GEOLOGIX    -63.10%   -27.90%   42.80%   363.50%   -92.10%   -28.80%           10%

JNR RESOURCES   281.60%   -12.60%   183.70%   -17.40%   -88.00%   5.90%           40%

LARAMIDE R   211.80%   500.00%   51.30%   -10.90%   -87.10%   68.40%         110%

MAWSON RES    17.80%   60.30%   104.00%   -36.50%   -78.20%   1.70%         105%

MEGA URANIUM    -19.00%   656.30%   178.70%   -42.80%   -80.90%   45.30%         290%

PALADIN ENER   660.00%   289.50%   362.80%   -15.00%   -68.60%   114.40%         222%

PINETREE CAPITAL   105.20%   225.70%   515.20%   -51.10%   -84.10%   55.60%         360%

SANTOY RES LTD   243.20%   43.60%   102.80%   -42.80%   -85.00%   7.60%           50%

SILVER SPRUCE    -64.00%   335.90%   10.20%   43.20%   -85.30%   -19.00%          -20%

STRATHMORE M   149.60%   20.30%   75.90%   -21.70%   -88.80%   5.00%          200%

TITAN URANIUM    -38.40%   233.30%   105.40%   -68.10%   -72.20%   0.40%          300%

TOURNIGAN    -23.00%   172.50%   257.30%   -53.30%   -87.20%   3.70%          250%

TREASURY METALS    7.90%   2.60%   0.40%   17.90%   -92.50%   -26.30%          200%

URANERZ            0.00%   1000.%   271.80%   -36.20%   -75.90%   71.60%          245%

URANIUM POWER    19.40%   5.90%   182.30%   -39.10%   -86.20%   20.20%          370%

GEOVIC MINING   0.00%   0.00%   -6.70%   -23.60%   -76.80%   -28.70%            10%

TOTAL                   36.90%   123.00%   147.60%   -30.60%   -83.70%   16.90%   

I have been thinking about the Uranium stocks trying to find the truth about the performance of the sector over a longer period of time.  Kind of tying into Pinetrees post from earlier in the week when his boss told him that you have to take a longer term perspective on things.

The above list represents my U holdings (hey at least give me credit for being willing to embarrass myself like this) and their annual as well as annualized performance (courtesy E-trade).  I also went thru and added up the performance year to date for the same holdings.

As we all contemplate “how much they’ve gone up”, I also wanted to try to get a feel for how they have tended to trend at least historically, to try and get a better picture of what they might do in the future. 

Keep in mind that a lot of the gains that have been “touted” “up 600% in 5 months” occurred and are represented in the horrific numbers posted and accounted for in 2008. 

When you add it all up, the sector has performed quite well, outperforming the major index’s some providing spectacular returns annualized for a period of better than 5 years now.
The question of course is will they perform in a similar, worse or better manner than they have in the past.

I believe that the fundamentals for the long term look better than they did in the past.  Nothing has occurred negatively in the sector over the past 18 months to change that.  The decline in the stock price, has nothing to do with the fundamental outlook IMO

I am personally buried in a lot of these stocks and am trying to figure which ones to allocate more attack capital now.  I am electing to do this as I believe that the SnP will continue to rise, until it no longer does, with projections now to at least the 975 level.  I would expect that there will be a broad based correction that will occur, but AT LEAST FOR NOW have 666 off the table. 

I would suggest that we could go to 1100 before we have a serious test down to 666.  Maybe something like 975 to 850 to 1100 to 775, and then we will see.

Money printing should provide insulation to hard assets in a correction I believe, and keep them from retesting THEIR Novemer lows.  Evidence of this can be found on March 6, when the SnP reached its low, while the U’s stayed in the box from January levels, which was up about 150-200% from the November lows.

My thought process is that I will play my basket in line with Merv’s index and will “keep an iron hand on the tiller” as long as the intermediate term bull market remains intact.  Failure will cause a significant portfolio liquidation, I am thinking in the 50% range, plus new capital allocations.

So with this list and Merv’s table I plan to make a 15%-20% contribution to my U holdings, this will take me down to about  25% cash, and leave me ample funds to trade and hedge with.  I am playing for 300 on the daily index, until he states otherwise.  That will be the time when a sell would have to be considered, unless we again have an intermediate trend reversal, or he extends or revises his numbers.

My thinking is that I will take a look and see which ones hold the greatest prospects for future growth, focusing on those that have under-performed, whose holdings and fundamentals I still like.
 
Example of a qualified purchase might include Crosshair, who have great land holdings, have underperformed, are a takeover candidate, and also have the potential to provide great long term returns WHEN The Nunivant Governement overturns their moratorium on mining,  much the way it happened in Austrailia.  Not looking to go crazy here, but I see no reason not to allocate $300-400 from these levels.
 
I still have to go and check the balance sheets on all of them to make sure I still fundamentally like them.  And yes, Santoy will be getting more of my hard earned dollars, probably $300 of them.  Think about that should they get to $1, $5, or you never know they get approval to mine, could be a $20 stock in 10 years.  That is what I am in it for, the long term.  If I lose $300 more,  that is ok with me.

Anyway just thought I would share my work and thoughts to see what you guys think and get your ideas on the performance.  If you have thought that you might “get back in” maybe this will help you with your perspective.

Appreciate any and all feedback, positive or negative, but preferably constructive.

GLTA

[davidslane]

Sorry Bottomfeeder, I just can't let that chart go without mentioning when Dines told his subscribers to buy those stocks.

Only the biggest were recommended in 2004 and 2005. Most (and all of the tiny junk ones) were recommended in late 2006 and mid 2007.  I also noticed you left off Blue Rock which has basically gone out of business (I think that was a Casey rec).


And let us not forget that I have proven before that Dines doens't use an accurate initial price purchased for his recommendations skewing his numbers higher than they should be. If we want to view success at all by the price that us lemmings got into Dines picks, then our numbers look awful (meaning buying after price spikes in mid 2007 into micro cap junk).


Yah, if you were one of the few who jumped into uranium in 2004 (and heck, I got in around 2005 so I was early), you're not too bad off. But, if you were like me, you bought some of the biggest in 2005 and then lots of the small ones in 2006 and 2007 and guess what, the loses on those 2006 and 2007 purchases swamped whatever gains I had on those few 2005 purchases.


I stll think that gold and silver mining companies are the way to go for spectacular gains rather than uranium. Uranium stocks already had their bubble: gold and silver stocks have not. And there are so many safe mid-sized producers to choose from that should still have spectacular gains.

[Note: Fortuna silver is obviously a silver stock, not a uranium stock. And Fronteer is known more as a gold stock than a uranium stock.]




Oh, and what last thing, I don't think using micro cap stocks are a good way to measure how a sector has done.  Micro caps are all about speculation and manipulation. Heck, the big boys even manipulate the charts to make TA people buy and sell at the wrong times

Let's look at CCJ for a 5 year performance (and god knows they've had some major problems). That's the bell weather.  191% since Jan. 2004. Not bad, and even slightly better than the major gold/silver stocks during that time. But it shows that if you want to invest in a sector long term, buying the major stock ended up equalling or beating out most of the micro caps. Just something to think about, eh. [Which I know you said Merv realized too.]


Also checked Areva: up 131% since Jan. 2004.
And BHP (one of the largest uranium producers in the world): up 236% since Jan. 2004 (but they benefited from selling gold and copper too).


Makes the whole idea of lottery tickets on micro caps not seem like such a great bet anymore when you can get similar returns with larger stocks that have a much smaller chance of going bankrupt. And the large stocks have dividends which the micro caps don't. And I didn't even include dividends in my analysis above (I just looked at stock prices from 1/1/04 to today).

[Bottomfeeder]

DSL....the information was not meant to be a referendum on Dines but rather a look at the historical performance of the stocks that are in my portfolio thats all.  This has nothing to do with when he recommended what to whom when.  I certainly bought some on other recomendations earlier than he suggested and got wacked and would have been better off waiting for his call.....so I don't really care about any of that stuff at this point, I have moved way beyond all of that.

I just thought I would share my research with the board to try and spot some patterns in stock behavior.  It seems that basically when I got in that I bought at the top in May 07 (brilliant ) and continued to buy and hold all the way down. 

So NOW just looking at visualizing a "U shaped formation, and where I bought in (the left side)  seeing that steep wall, and looking to see where we are now on the right side, and what kind of potential it has from here.  I took my beating for 18 months, will there be 18 months back up?  I don't know, we will find out in a year.

All of these investments IMO opinion have to be looked at in the context of the broad markets anyway.  In other words I would be a seller if the SnP were going down, but its not its going up.  I am thinking that it is possible that we may have another 12-18 month run in the U's before a significant correction, although I don't place much weight on the "time element".  I have turned into more of a P&F guy, just seems like a more relevant mearsurement to me.

On Fronteer, obviously they have gold interests and currently produce nothing, but really the big move in that stock occurred after they picked up their FULL interest in Aurora, for practically nothing, and loaded up on cash.  That was a sweetheart deal.

But you should definately not buy in DSL because you don't believe it currently.  Investing in such a condition tends to cause emotional responses and end up being costly.  So I don't blame you one bit, and if I were you, I would not put my money in.  That is not a shot at you or telling you that your wrong, its just not for you thats all.

Thanks for the feedback, it is all meant to provoke thought so everyone can find their own personal comfort levels with things and I always apprecaite and value your contributions.

PS...I am personally glad the bubbles aleready burst, dont have to worry about it.  As Forest Gump said "one less thing".

GLTA

[pinetree]

Thanks for all the work BF... 

I'll have to look at the P&F charts, still don't totally understand them.

That's a gutsy call on the S&P prediction by the way..

I would suggest that we could go to 1100 before we have a serious test down to 666.  Maybe something like 975 to 850 to 1100 to 775, and then we will see

I have to say, my first impression is that seems crazy, almost impossible.  But as they say, the market seems to move whichever way will confound the most people, and there has been A LOT of money lost trying to short this rally.  As I look around the net it seems to me that crowd sentiment remains bearish, and I'm not sure what it would take to change that.  So I cannot rule out your scenario, impossible though it may seem.

As for my boss, I've got to give the guy credit, granted there may be some losers he hasn't told me about but he's had some great winners.  Buying CCJ at $3 and selling at $41, buying Hecla when it was a penny stock in 2001, selling PNP for $15 at the top. (though he's been re-buying all the way down and still underwater on those shares).  He says all his biggest winners have been through finding a great fundamental story and buying the stocks when they're still ignored and/or beaten down and having the patience to wait years (if need be) for the payoff.  He was fully invested in gold mining shares by mid-Sept last year, held through the lows, and made out well.  I asked him Friday how he didn't panic out at the bottom, because at that time I was thinking gold was headed for the $500's.  Basically he said he's been through this before, believed in the story, and didn't look at his account balance.  Heh, I thought he was crazy last year, but maybe not?  Ties into what you were saying... you have to believe in what your investing in or else you're doomed.

Oh, and looks like Bluerock is still kicking.  They've changed their name to Argus Metals and are now under AML.V.  Had a big gap up in early May, from .01 to .30 in a week.  Should've made a $100 bet on them.

[jjj000]

Oh, and looks like Bluerock is still kicking.  They've changed their name to Argus Metals and are now under AML.V.  Had a big gap up in early May, from .01 to .30 in a week.  Should've made a $100 bet on them.

Ha!  I was wondering where the heck Argus Metals came from on my watch list!!  I saw it there a week or so and was like, hmm... I don't remember adding that.  Meant to look into it.  Now I know why!!

[Peter518]

No.  You did not get AML from 0.01 to 0.3 in a week, since that was simply due to 15 BRD to 1 AML share reversal-split.

2009-05-06 16:31    0.01    Change Name, Roll Back Shares    Argus Metals name change, rolls back shares 1:15

Oh, and looks like Bluerock is still kicking.  They've changed their name to Argus Metals and are now under AML.V.  Had a big gap up in early May, from .01 to .30 in a week.  Should've made a $100 bet on them.

Ha!  I was wondering where the heck Argus Metals came from on my watch list!!  I saw it there a week or so and was like, hmm... I don't remember adding that.  Meant to look into it.  Now I know why!!

[jjj000]

no, I never owned it... I mean it was just on a watch list.  I saw the AML symbol and had no idea where it came from

[pinetree]

I think he was referring to my comment that I should've put $100 into it when it was .01...

Speaking of reversal-splits CDE did a 10:1 reverse split recently.  At first glance it looked to me like it had gone up 1000% LOL

[jjj000]

btw, BF thanks for all that work putting that together.  I really don't know what to do with that though  ... other than I guess it shows multiple entry/profit-taking points??

Anyway did you catch old Jimmy boy's latest "Rare Earths" sector call?  They will probably follow a similar path to the micros you just laid out there...

------

Lookee there... banner ads for TOS.  I wonder if google ad serving mines the posts for relevant text/content references or if JDH has to indicate some kind of content parameters when it gets set up...

[Bottomfeeder]

Ha....your welcome guys, it wasn't that much work.  I was just looking for the long term performance, because one would think after the past two years performane that everything must be down 70% annualized, so I was just trying to see how they were doing over the long term.  I was also curious to see if there were stocks that could go up 1000% over a two year period of time, to see if I was out of my mind or not, thinking that these guys could still go higher.  The performance tells me that they absolutely could

I also wanted to see what I could buy that hadn't already gone parabolic that potentially was a good long term investment, with low capital allocations, should we get another breakout.

Today I sold my Geovic Mining, 40% higher than when Dines made his call, but probably not at a top, and bought 3000 Santoy.  I tried to sell my UPCFF to switch into Titan, trying to create my own premium there, close but no cigar.

Interesting on that Santoy buy there were like 35K for sale at .112 and 3K to buy at .10.  I put in my buy order at .112 and got filled at .106, that like never happens .

Another good U day, as we are at new recovery highs, and are about to break out of the newest box.  For those that haven't entered and have wanted to, a close above 195 on Mervs index should provide another big move up.  Today we closed at 190, with a interday high of 195.  This would be the 4th big upside move since November.  Check out Merv's if you haven't lately to visually see it.

 

[pinetree]

BF - you have any opinion on managing your U portfolio and long-term vs short term cap gains?

I notice you mention taking profits in some U holdings from time to time, or that maybe you'll liquidate under certain circumstances.  Since I'm new to the creating/managing a l/t portfolio (it's been all trading up to this point) I was just wondering what your overall thesis was.  Anyone else feel free to contribute as well.

I've been coming up with a list of U stocks to consider putting into a long term portfolio and my plan has been that I'm probably not going to trade around them in the short term.  My idea with this is to fund an account and just accumulate over time on weakness, with a 10-15 year time horizon.  I just think this is a too good a story to not give it a try.  These stocks are still pretty beaten down despite their rallies so I feel like this summer could be a good time to start.

So if I bought DNN at $2 tomorrow and it went to $6 by April 2010 I wouldn't sell because I would have no idea if I'd ever be able to get in at $2 again.  I could sell at $6 and then have it run to $9 on me.  Even if it did drop, I'd have to hope it would drop enough so that my repurchased shares would more than make up for the s/t cap gains tax I'd have to pay on the sale.  Easier said than done.  I figure any fluctuations it might make in the single digits shouldn't be of concern to me anyway because I'm not playing for a double or triple, I'm playing for $35/share at some point many years down the line when nuclear has really caught on (or so we hope).  My way of dealing with the inevitable fluctuations and corrections will be to not go all in at once so I am able to average into the lower prices.  As long as I still like the company, and the fundamental story remains solid, then I won't sell.

This is my plan for now.  Does it make sense?  See any problems with it?

Should be interesting to see which account comes out ahead in 10 years.  This one or my trading account.

[jjj000]

Since I'm new to the creating/managing a l/t portfolio (it's been all trading up to this point) I was just wondering what your overall thesis was.  Anyone else feel free to contribute as well.

I think it makes absolutely no sense to just buy and hold for 10 years.  With the TA skills we've picked up, I see no reason why you shouldn't just play the major seasonal trends at minimum.  4-6 trades a year would probably do it.  Take profits, re-enter, rinse, repeat.

I can tell you one thing, from simply holding for about a year and a half prior to the commodity crash... there were still large swings-- I would be up 20% overall, then lose it all and be down 10% only to swing back up to 30% again.  Probably 2 or 3 times it happened over that year and a half I was holding prior to the drop off.  And that was during a crazy bull market.

So next cycle that's what I would be looking to do, even in my "hold" portfolio.  Just when you feel good about your portfolio and feel like bragging to a friend or two... that's probably when you should take your profits

[Bottomfeeder]

Pinetree that is a hard call.  I guess it just kind of depends on the size of the allocation.

I like to short term trade in my retirement account for example, because there are no tax implications.  I also like to invest in my retirement account.  Today my buy of UUU with the plan of selling half at $3, was in my retirement account.  Might we worth nothing might be worth a ton, but I don't have to feel compelled to add or do anything.  $1500 of "free stock" might be genius in 20 years, might be nothing.  I am making a long term Mauldin like play there, for very low risk.  Santoy add at .10 is also in retirment account same story.  $300 risk, see what happens.  Santoy in Non Retirement I will try and churn.

Then in my non-retirement account I will trade them and work on allocations.  Last year as I was churning the market with it going down.     Lots of fun running up the down elevator, trying to bail myself out of positions.  So I would sell new shares plus more expensive shares to get even all within short term tax implications. 

It worked ok for accumulation and reducing costs basis.  This year I am just getting to the point where those last buys are becoming profitable.  Hopefully I will be able to trade with the escalator going up.  Keeping  more shares when they are cheap and less when they are more expensive.  Buy low sell higher, keeping a core for the long term.

Sounds stupid I know, but example I started buying PNP at 10.50, 1000 shares.  Now I have 5K shares at just below $3, without recording losses.  I am working to reduce the allocation.  Maybe sell half around $3-4, near my original  cap cost, with alot more shares. and no cap gains. 

I also have some PNP in (1500) a retirement account at a $1, that will just sit there, see what it looks like one day should hard assets and inflation ever provide true value.

I would like to reduce my non retirement U holdings, but it is just taking time.  I started with 25K shares and have doubled to 50K with uneven allocations.  Kind of lost the balance there.  But I would love to pull my money out and still have my original shares.....something like that.

Hope that I answered your question, just kind of have to maneuver around a bit and try and keep yourself comfortable I think.  Once you start squirming you start losing your money and your nerve.

[pinetree]

Thanks guys, just looking for some perspectives... not sure how I want to proceed yet but appreciate the input.

Even though I missed the bottom, the prices now are still quite low due to the severity of the selloff.  Still thinking this summer could be a good time to establish some starter positions in the names I like the most.  I know there are plenty of reasons not to mess with these stocks, but the same could probably have been said for the commodity/ag names (CHK, PCX, MOS, HK, CLF, etc) back in 2001-2003 when they were under $5 and no one cared about them. 

No guarantees that the U's will turn out that way, or in that short of a time, either...  But this nuclear story is such a compelling one that it certainly does have the potential to turn out like that.  I don't look at it as a get rich quick scheme though because human nature being what it is, I have to expect resistance, delays, and procrastination, and that is why I choose to look at these stocks as long term plays.  That way I won't be freaked out by the inevitable volatility.

[jjj000]

that is why I choose to look at these stocks as long term plays.  That way I won't be freaked out by the inevitable volatility.

See... but that mindset is EXACTLY what screwed me over, PT.  During the run up, I had gotten "used to" the volatility.  I had seen them go up 30%, then down 20%, repeated, etc.  I learned to ignore the volatility and didn't bother with stop losses or profit taking in exchange for my "long term" view.  That was BAD.

Because when the bottom did finally drop out, to me it just looked like another 20% drop at first, just like had happened 3 or 4 times before.  So I figured "ok well it will come back again even stronger."  I did not listen to people like davidslane, who had a few years experience on me and made a clear call to take profits in the U's.

40% down, I still figured - "well they are just dropping a little further this time".  Long story short, before you know it we have a message board full of people down 90%.

I think the point is you have to trade highly volatile, highly speculate, HIGH RISK stocks like this very attentively whether you want to be in them for 2 years or 25.  If you want to trade a buy and hold strategy long term and be able to just ignore it... or only check on it once a year... I would find a less speculative industry to invest in...

Just my opinion