Spot Price

[dananini]

Down to $78. ...We might be ready to get hammered.Supply/demand is currently 4:1.I bought into this whole thing because of a shortage...A shortage that "someone else" told me about.

[yellowmoney]

Yea I hear you.
I was duped. and now my buy and hold strategy has me at over 70% loss.

[john77]

Month end long term price is also being published, I believe last night or today. I could not find it on uxc.com though. Scary times. Did any certain newsletter writer comment on the excess supply vs demand, which flies in the face of a long term supply crunch? Casey hasn't.

[yellowmoney]

Don't count on it! But in case you haven't heard, the world is coming to and end and nuclear power is the answer. Oh yea and if you dont  buy some MGA or PNP then you will be shivering in the dark.

[dananini]

Even during these dark days (no pun intended), long-term has stayed right around $95.Everything I've read and still read say that's not gonna change much.The problem is that the spot price is THE psychological  focus when it comes to U's.A very small percentage is actually ever bought on the spot market.Something like 5%, if that.But when the general public sees a headline price decline in spot,everyone on this board knows too well what happens.I can't even bear to check-in on todays action.
Also, today is my one year anniversary of loading up on Dine's recs.$215,000 invested.Yesterday's account balance...$145,000.
Sorry to gripe to you guys of all people.

[punter]

Fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Didn't "that fool" put out another buy alert on Uranium just last week. I don't know for a fact that being just an unabashed tout or a complete idiot or just another dozy nutball who got lucky is a justification to publish a newsletter but I would stay the f#&k away from the guy based on his track record. Stay away from fools like this and the others frequently mentioned in this forum. The reality is that every one of them has lost huge dollars for everyone.

Peter Grandich seems to be the only really popular guy that has put a sell order out publicly, but I'm not saying to treat him like a god either, even so, props to him . He does however state for the record who he is recieving compensation from and who he isn't. At least he's honest about his position in all matters. His advice comes with that caveat, whereas some of these other touts have in many cases recieved compensation and not disclosed it even when confronted.

You are not alone in having lost huge amounts on his "advice". I thank you for at least admitting it, if more people did , we'd run guys (touts& hucksters) like him out of the buisiness. Unfortunatley thats not going to happen. These promoters have been around forever sucking capital out of the gullible. One of the lesser known quotes of PT Barnum was " It's immoral to let a sucker keep his money". Every morning meeting at your favorite brokerage they're shouting the same thing. Stock promotion is a really ugly business. People who rely on commission and subscription income can not be trusted. Burn that into your desk so that you have to look at it every time you sit down to make a decision.

History seldom repeats itself in the exact same way. So don't expect Uranium issues to follow the same path as they once did. There MAY come a time when the sector strengthens due to the law of unintended consequece, but it doesn't look like it will be soon and you should try to preserve capital where you can.

Always do your own DD and sell when you've made a profit. Greed has fleeced  more sheep than these newsletter touts ever will.

[john77]

Dananini,

Ouch. Is that a paper or realized loss? I am in a similar situation and my biggest mistake was holding through everything. Waiting for the "rip-tide", for the "buying panic", "damning the torpedoes". What's your exit strategy? Holding for an even longer term now?

[dananini]

     John

     That's unrealized, only because I  have no kids or tuition bills looming.
     Why even bother selling 5000 shares of Alberta-Star at this point?(Ave.cost $1.3)
     I feel trapped and am not a sophisticated "investor".Plus I've gotta job i need to start
     paying more attention to.I've made peace with the lord that I'll bail when the loss
     hits the $100,000 range.My net worth is a million inluding $300,000 in home equity.
     So it's quite a hit that I owe to greed and stupidity and laziness that I'll probobly never
     forget.Maybe something will turn around for us.

[jjj000]

Hi everyone... new poster here... just found this site while doing some research.  Interesting conversation you have here.  Very negative... which is understandable.

Dananini... I am in almost the exact situation you are.  Started around April '06, similar net worth, down about 22% overall right now.  Over the past I have seen my portfolio swing from up 35% to down 30% and back and forth multiple times... usually in the span of a month or less.

I started investing in uranium and gold stuff before I found out about Dines' newsletter.  Humorously enough my personal picks have done better than his recommendations (DEZ [now AUY], AZK, URE, URRE [before he rec'd it]).

But I still believe in the future for uranium shares.  I just think we had a crazy hedge fund induced run-up through May '07, and now are suffering the price for that.  Mass media is triggering the painful loses right now b/c of all the bank writedowns and recession talk.  But Mass media ignores the uranium sector for the most part... so any positive news we get just can't compete against the front page of Yahoo or CNN or whatever.

So when the media gets tired of the recession talk, I think we'll get some life back in our miserable down portfolios... and maybe see the Hedge guys come back.  And then once mass media catches on to uranium and nuclear power, then the pressure will be up, not down.

My personal exit strategy is more of an average down strategy.  Any time I see a security have a random bump up - say like SSE yesterday (~20%) - then I try to sell out a chunk and get my way back into cash.

But I don't want to sell out completely... maybe 50%.  We may have a couple more run ups like we did to Sept/Oct '07 from the August low.  Hopefully I can find a better exit point in late Feb or mid April.  Once summer hits... it's anyone's guess this year though...

I still believe nuclear power makes sense.  I just think the volatility is magnified in today's trading environment like it never has been before... even more so than the dotcom rush...

my 2 cents.  er... 1.75 cents actually as of today

[john77]

Dananini,
 
With a net worth of 1 million, I would have to say that you actually did perhaps the right thing speculating. I mean, the general rule that people like Casey put forth is to put 10% of your resources into speculation and keep the rest safe - with the goal of getting that 10% to give you 100% or better returns.

Wouldn't it be prudent to NOT sell out at 100,000 and to simply forget about the investments at this point?

[gadge78]

dananini
where did you get the supply:demand ratio of 4:1?
hadn't heard that...
ar

[dananini]

A Bloomberg article written on Jan. 29.The link is still up on uraniumseek.com,a site I previously recommended.The writer is Yuriy Humber.

[dananini]

John, i think the rule is 10% of net worth MINUS real estate.That should have been $70,000.I over shot it by $150,000