Stock Market April 2011

[sidewinder]

Fed keeps pumping in money. .... money keeps going into market .... market keeps going up.
Until the FED stops nothing changes. 

http://i1105.photobucket.com/albums/h357/Sidewinder747/OpenMarketopsaprmay2011.png[/img]]

[MetalMeister]

Good list, SW.

Here is the 6 month DOW since QE2 started:



What can we say about the amount of QE2 related to the DOW rise during the same period.

Know of anything said about the amount of money pumped in and the prior QE1?

Is there a ratio that can be gleaned?

The DOW was already stuttering between the end of Feb profit taking then Egypt/Libya/Japan then a huge bounce obviously not due to QE2 but speculation of a bottom.

Now it appears to be stuttering with profit taking again.

Thoughts, anyone?  What's the next big disaster?  I have heard Yemen and Syria, so far.  And Iran seems to be heating up as well.

 

[sidewinder]

I guess you could put charts together showing the relation based on the previous FOMC open market actions list.   

Anyone can access the information here

http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html#

[sidewinder]

Here you go M, I knew someone must have already done that. 

[sidewinder]

I don't know the source of that data above but you can see some correlation in the cash injections and the overall market.  If you can toss $2-8 billion into the fray at any given time the little .2% is really only the end result.  The gyrations daily on the trading floor are simply wild.  Total "travel" on some days is 25-30 points in the cash market.  If you know what you are doing it is no problem to capture at least half those points in either or both directions.  Long or short.  

Some traders are having a field day and the uninitiated are getting hell beat out of them.  

So, Generally, the market goes up and that's the reason for the saying But the F... dips.  This too, can be perilous for the Joe blow investor as they are getting a feeling of well being and recovery is ongoing.  Unfortunately, I think otherwise and regardless of where the market is all is not well with the money.  If you make a 1000% gain in a currency which is doomed to failure what do you have?  It truly is a tightrope and at some point the wind will come up.  This is why I like Martin's time assessments as they just seem "right".  

As far as the “next big disaster”, that really is not that important as it relates to these markets.  Any such thing will in the end only register as “noise” on the big picture.  I think we suffer from all the uncertainty until around 2015 and ride the collapse into 2020 so in some respects there is still time to position one’s self and time to observe and get a handle on things that will really matter going forward.  After all this is dynamic as well as historic IMHO.

Of course I could be ALL WRONG as I frequently am but, in this case I don’t think so.  

My apologies to everyone if I seem grumpy and short of late but that is because well….  I’ve been grumpy  
 

[MetalMeister]

Nice stuff.

Really interesting chart.

Would be interesting, in that light, to see all the individual days of Treas sales and the actual DOW graph contrasted.

[sunseeker]

               



People's Daily Online reports China's forex reserves pass 3 trillion USD for first time

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/04/future-shock-chinas-remarkable-3.html

Here's what will eventually happen, because it simply must work this way mathematically: With its US dollar reserves, China will buy USA assets, not Japanese equities, not Euro-based assets, not the Italian stock market or Italy's national debt.

Likewise, with its Euro reserves, China will buy EuroZone assets, not Japanese equities, not US or Canadian assets.

"Mish" certainly raises an interesting point.

Sorry. I'm a bit busy to address all the excellent points which are being raised.
A holiday is on the cards and I've got things to sort out before then.

ATB 

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[sidewinder]

Man that college thing is huge ...............

Gotta love a country the "fixes" young people for a life of debt for some worthless liberal arts degree. I keep hearing of kids getting out of school with between 150-200K in debt that will take 30 years to pay of.  Yea, what a country. 

Just reading the minutes from the Q$ 2010 earnings conference call will just about make you puke, it did me.   

http://seekingalpha.com/article/247813-slm-s-ceo-discusses-q4-2010-results-earnings-call-transcript

This "easy money" simply drives up cost for education while building kingdoms for certain academics.  As long as the money flows the cost to the people wanting education will continue to go higher and higher.  I personally know professors making over $200k and I never begrudge a man getting paid for what he does.  But man, this just seems all wrong.  Matter of fact, just like anything that government touches it's crazy.  Oh well  .... Can't wait till I hear the words "prepare the noose"  I hope I live that long. 

[MetalMeister]

Here is what China is going to do with that 3+ trillion dollars:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/china-proposes-cut-two-thirds-its-3-trillion-usd-holdings

All those who were hoping global stock markets would surge tomorrow based on a ridiculous rumor that China would revalue the CNY by 10% will have to wait. Instead, China has decided to serve the world another surprise. Following last week's announcement by PBoC Governor Zhou (Where's Waldo) Xiaochuan that the country's excessive stockpile of USD reserves has to be urgently diversified, today we get a sense of just how big the upcoming Chinese defection from the "buy US debt" Nash equilibrium will be. Not surprisingly, China appears to be getting ready to cut its USD reserves by roughly the amount of dollars that was recently printed by the Fed, or $2 trilion or so. And to think that this comes just as news that the Japanese pension fund will soon be dumping who knows what. So, once again, how about that "end of QE" again?

               



People's Daily Online reports China's forex reserves pass 3 trillion USD for first time

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/04/future-shock-chinas-remarkable-3.html

Here's what will eventually happen, because it simply must work this way mathematically: With its US dollar reserves, China will buy USA assets, not Japanese equities, not Euro-based assets, not the Italian stock market or Italy's national debt.

Likewise, with its Euro reserves, China will buy EuroZone assets, not Japanese equities, not US or Canadian assets.

"Mish" certainly raises an interesting point.

Sorry. I'm a bit busy to address all the excellent points which are being raised.
A holiday is on the cards and I've got things to sort out before then.

ATB 

[sidewinder]

I think coal may be in for a good ride.    especially coaking coal.  Just saying.

[onlooker]

Should be interesting to see how the markets will react after Ben Bernanke's press briefing at 2:15 pm.

Profit-taking in Commodities was Limited by Weak USD
Wed, Apr 27 2011, 04:44 GMT

On the macro front, the FOMC meeting will be under the spotlight. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will use the press briefing to shape market expectations on inflation and monetary policies. We expect him to clarify the Fed's consensus on inflation outlook, the sources of inflation and how the stance of monetary policy may influence inflation expectations.   

http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/market-insights/2011/04/27/

[MetalMeister]

I think you're right on the button.

Coal is looking a lot safer than nuclear, huh?

This new, state of the art scrubber coal power plant is going in just south of where I live:

http://www.prairiestateenergycampus.com/

Friend of mine was telling me that the emissions are very low.

I wonder how China's review of their nuclear plant designs is coming.  They said they were going to review every plan based on the damage to Fukushima.

Isn't it interesting how you don't hear much about Fukushima these days...   

[sunseeker]

I think you're right on the button.


Isn't it interesting how you don't hear much about Fukushima these days...   

No but....

Welsh farmers still living with the fallout from Chernobyl......

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/north_west/4946352.stm

25 years on....

"'This thing will be with you for three weeks - three months at the most.' That is what we were told in a meeting at the time," Mr Roberts said.

AND....

http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/2011/04/26/still-living-with-the-fallout-from-chernobyl-91466-28584346/


ATB 

[sidewinder]

JDH cracked me up in his "Blinked" message for the week when describing his latest sales.  Know the feeling buddy. 

Nowadays when I feel so strongly compelled to SELL! I go take a break and a deep breath, finding the pre-defined points remove all the angst. 

Just looking over futures on SnP it seems most of the down moves are with larger volumes and the up moves volume just falls off and off till finally producing a sharp down move with lots of volume surge.  This seems as though everyone is antsy and the least bit of downward action pulls 'em in for the short ride down. 

Gold on the other hand had steady increase in volume and price all through the 2nd half of last year and towards the end of the year   ... poof.... dried up, only to return to normal levels within two weeks starting at the first of the year.  The January correction in gold was just another buying Op and volume fell off all through the decent in price in till the bottom the week of JAN 24 which produced a weekly doji candle.  That setup was a perfect buy signal IMO.  Volume began to rise with price and has remained fairly steady ever since.

Looking at the gold miners they really have ran pretty much with the physical …. Until the last three weeks.  I look at little ol’ Yamana and see nothing spooky but the last month has bound to be trying on shareholders. 

So BTFD has been working for the last year on all this stuff.  Is AUY a bargain at 12.14?  Who knows, Is gold a bargain at 1569?  Well 6 months from now we may think so. 

Personally, I look for some shock to the system in the next two to three months but that does not mean I am scared to buy anything.  Silver has just had HUGE volume over the last three weeks and I guess the man on the street is beginning to have a look see.  It has doubled in price since November and now has three weeks of large volume increases.  I don’t like that and am ready to pull the trigger on SI anytime.  However as I pull the trigger I will only be determining where to buy it back because this ain’t over by a long shot.  I just don’t want to get trick Fu#$%d by the weasels in the interim. 

Per Armstrong’s wave I am rooting for a bottom on gold/silver around the middle of June and maybe buy and “E” ticket in there somewhere.  I have been ultra short term on most everything for at least two years now and almost have forgotten how to swing trade but with gold and silver it has to be the big picture and longer term holding.   That’s where the rubber meets the road for this economy. 

Nothing has changed to make ANYTHING better and if anything it is progressively worse.  The debt is still there and climbing, the obligations are still there and climbing, confidence in all governments is declining as well as the currencies.  We are far from ‘peace on Earth’ and domestically, within the US at least, factions appear to be even further divided as both sides lie, coerce, conceal and generally create noise that only obscures the real problem. (loose cannon on deck called government)

To top it off we are in the midst of these really violent weather patterns which I definitely attribute to solar activity and I can only say that there is so much “noise” that the average person nowadays appears to just be weary of it all and indecisive in most things, but violently support the pet peeve they select as a surrogate for all the others. 

In a nutshell my opinion is that while the market may well correct we are headed much higher in these markets and have maybe another 3-5 years of this nuthouse environment before the lid may just blow off.  With global tension as it is, that opinion can change in a matter of hours however.