Stock Market for April 2009

[Bottomfeeder]

Looks like I am going to miss buying JNR @.23 and LAM @1.91, still got a shot at Bayswater @.13...

I know....especially Bay..but I could see it going to .50 from here, and a strong possibility of at least .26.

[Peter518]

Seems the tide is changing.  The uranium fund UF.UN.TO is up 10% today and they are buying back their shares.

Today uraniums perform very well, the best performing on my watch list today are DML.TO, LAM.TO, PNP.TO, PWE.TO, UEX.TO, and URRE

Big guy like CCO.TO/CCJ PDN.TO and SGR are also performing well.

Until now, today is a strong trend up day.  I should jump in immediately at the open OR have bought at the EOD yesterday.

Looks like I am going to miss buying JNR @.23 and LAM @1.91, still got a shot at Bayswater @.13...

I know....especially Bay..but I could see it going to .50 from here, and a strong possibility of at least .26.

[Peter518]

By the way, SPY has just overtaken the in Feb, 2009, and next target may be Jan, 2009 high (94.55)

[jjj000]

fwiw, I think the rally is done.  But then again I've been saying that for weeks now

Missed the gaps up, looking to play the SBD's off the mid-day highs.  Risky, stupid, stepping in front of the train, fighting city hall... all of the above... yes, I know.

What's up with URRE today?  Crazy.  I kind of forget that I hold a bunch of straggler U's that I never dumped.  And all put together they are more than my single biggest holding otherwise.  So I laugh at a day like today where combined they deliver a nice little gain.  Hey, some are now only down 65% from being as low as 95% under... 

[sunseeker]

Hi BF
Re: PNP.
Bang goes the sell in April theory. In my defence I did say that I thought that it still had legs. I didn’t realise that they were Usain Bolt’s at the time.
 
I hope that no one was influenced when I posted that I had sold.
Doesn’t look like the smartest decision now. 

http://i108.photobucket.com/albums/n6/LAT1N0H3AT/Pictures%20of%20Myself/KickingDougsAss.jpg

Who’s next?

ATB

[Peter518]

David Pescod on Uranium
======================

We’ve been mentioning uranium over the last couple of weeks as we are seeing all the potential signs of what could be a significant bottom for the sector as spot prices have now been up for two weeks in a row. Big moves on uranium stocks again today and an article in Market Talk on the Dow Jones Wires should be credited with creating some of the interest.

They wrote, “Uranium markets seen heading up for a bull run that could last three to four years, RBC Capital says. Reasons? Looming supply/demand shortfall, Asian utility buying, sector consolidation. Utilities will have to pay higher and higher prices to secure both spot and longterm supplies. We also believe that the longer the spot price remains depressed, the more dramatic the price runup will be.”

[Beginner]

STRATFOR & George Friedman - Not the End of the World Just Yet

Google up Geroge Friedman, founder of STRATFOR.  He has written a book called “The Next 100 Years.”

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DIwZsbBXpNQ

Don’t worry if Obama spends a few trillion, the wealth of the US economy is bigger than the next four economies and bigger than Japan and China combined (and Japan is the world’s second biggest economy).  The wealth of the US ecoomy is estimated at approximately 340 trillion.  The US is also one of the least populated countries as well as being the richest.

The economies of the world may have a few years in the doldrums but the US, not China, will rule the waves for the next one hundred years.

As for China, the Chinese coastline is part of the Western ecnomy but the other 1.1 billion (out of 1.3 billion) live under deep governmental repression and in abymal grinding poverty and are very very angry.  That means trouble ahead for China.  When the US sneezes, China gets pneumonia.

Interesting that Friedman sees solar as the energy of the future - but in microwave form from outer space where the sun shines day and night, and then, by some magic,  is routed down to earth.  How about that JD?

[john77]

Did any old subscribers who let their subscription falter get an email from Dines with the first page of the APril 24 TDL? Hope this isn't a sign of a top dragging in more subscribers for a whipping.

[dananini]

People stumbling into learning they still own some u's" they forgot about".

[davidslane]

Yep!

Haven't been with Dines for 1 1/2 now.
Don't miss him.


But I got page 1 of his latest issue touting his great timing to buy last October. Must of forgotten about that buy Pinetree at the top recommendation.


Dines is either desparate for new (old) subscribers or trying to pump up stocks which are about to collapse.

Remember, uranium gets crushed mid May every year!!!
Wouldn't be surprised if he is pumping before the May dump.


I also think the market will pull back this summer, so buying uranium stocks now sounds like a bad idea.


Sounds like a time to SELL uranium stocks into this Dines rally based on this e-mail.


His charts are also so misleading. Showing 200%+ and 300%+ gains. Come on.  What do you expect from $0.20 stocks that have droped 95% from their highs. Why not show the WHOLE chart, not just since the October 2008 low. What a FRAUD!

[Bottomfeeder]

Ha....Sunseeker....nothing wrong with making a profit, not many on this board can actually say that, myself included.  Pretty encouraging though as some of these stocks are back to 7/08 levels.  Mega/PNP up 600% from low.  Hey say what you want, but 600% is 600%.

Not to gloat or anything, but today was like the good ole days, as far as gains go, so I am glad to see the upside here. If this thing can keep going a couple more weeks like it has the last couple, I will be happy to sell some.

SW...as you were saying the other day these guys are hard to trade.  I tried 3 of them on the buy side and they got away from me too quickly.  I just let em go.

Skeptics should check the charts though, and see what is behind the move, its not JD, IMO, bigger than that fundamentally.  The guys who bought the Megas at the top and didn't hold sold I think, now it is more worrying about the guys who bought at or near the bottom looking to book profits that will create some choppiness ahead.

Me, I'm still holding.


3j....what are you seeing to make you think this rally is over?  I am thinking that the 882 number is pretty bullish, even though it didn't close that high.  Television technicians minimize it as being less important because it is not a closing number, but is still a recovery high.

[pinetree]

For me the warning was Thu/Fri last week when the indexes put in a higher low (vs Mondays low) and then took out the 4/22 high.  I didn't want to believe it though.  I had come up with a list of reasons to suggest that the rally was over back on Friday 4/17 and went short, and added on 4/22.  Due to my denial (aka needing to be right) I ended up holding the shorts a day or so too long and so I made basically nothing on the trade.

But I think most everyone thought 875 was going to be an interim top.  All I can figure is that by the time we closed Mon 4/20 down 300+ pts pretty much everyone who wanted to be short was short.  I read somewhere that this rally won't end until the bears capitulate, until they throw in the towel and stop looking at every up day as an even better shorting opportunity.  We normally only think of capitulation as something that the bulls do at market bottoms, but maybe that's a good description of what's happening here.

I got long FAS this morning and am still holding (instead of making it a daytrade), will exit tomorrow if the market looks to be rolling over.  Can't believe I'm going long here but if that's what the charts tell me to do then I'll do it.

Nice to see the uraniums moving, hopefully bringing some relief to their long-suffering holders.  As for Dines I think Sidewinder put it best... total snake oil salesman.

EDIT - 3j, are you considering today's up move enough to constitute a break of spx 875 in your channel system?

[honeytart]

Hello Davidslane
With all due respect Sir, do you really believe that this latest U's rally is shortlived? Didn't really understand fully what you meant when you said that now is not a good time to buy U's as in your opinion they will get crushed mid May. 
Can you please elaborate just a little more here?
Do you believe that after they supposedly get crushed mid May, that it is the end for them albeit for awhile and that the bull rally will then be over, so therefore best to take your profits now b4 mid May? Or
did you mean they will get crushed, but will regain quickly. 
Regards Mr Lane
Thanks. 

[sidewinder]

Not answering for David but in the past the uraniums have been getting whacked every year about the 1st couple weeks into May. 

But then again this is a different kind of year isn't it.  In the past the summer doldrums led to some losses and picked up price in fall of the year.  But then again this is a different kind of year.  While seasonalities (dont think thats a word) certainly occur are they cast in stone?  Copper traditionally peaks as of last week and I cant say that one is working out bad. 

I plan on keeping a daily eye on the little guys and watch the technicals for signs of weakness (if weakness inside of weakness can be identified).  As cheap as most of these are for a few hundred bucks you can get a pretty good lotto ticket and check on it in 2012.  You may get a nice surprise.  Large sums would be a high risk proposition IMHO.

The nerve, touting 600% and BS.  The stuff I got on his recs. finally got to -90% although a few did make -72% the average is -90% today.  LOL NOT.

[Bottomfeeder]

PT...I got long FAS today EOD.  I along with probably everybody else have tried shorting this market all month, and have traded right in line with the S&P index performance, which is ok, but I gotta believe that is playing right into the headwinds.  Too much money on the sidelines, forced to take positions, moves the market higher on every pullback, until it doesn't.

As far as Dines, hey whadaya want the guy to do.  Say hey, U's are a great buy down 60% up 600%?  Its not just him.  What do you hear in the news these days? The S&P is down 45% from the top, or 30% up from the bottom?  I think we can say for the most part the reporting is on the CURRENT, or where it has just come from not a diatribe on all the 2 year movements of anything.  It reflects a changing of market psychology.  He mentions this in his last newsletter, and it was an astute observation in my mind, that became more obvious after I thought about it.

So I think some of you guys need to kind of get over it really.  Not trying to be rude or anything but come on.  We are all kind of investing and trading THIS market right?  Not the last one or the next one, this one.  I mean what are you guys liking to buy these days technically or fundamentally?  Have you run into something better the past 6 months?  

On the other side I do appreciate the thoughts on sell signals because I dont want to give it all back either, but try and be constructive about it.   It will help you as much as me and others  that value your opinions.   I have been setting up the charts more looking for exits.  These guys have been flying, but the other side is that in many cases if we can get another 10-15% move, the next resistance levels are MUCH higher, so that is the tough part, letting your winners run.  I keep trying to buy when they come down and test support, but have been having a tough go as of late.

Example PNP resitance 1.77, then 2.00, then 2.5.  I see MEGA resitance at 2.01, then 2.50, 2.70, then 3.70.  LAM 2.40 (broke through 2.01 today), then 3.00, then 3.60, then 5.00.  Not saying any of them are going to those tops, but they keep breaking through resistance every day almost, which indicates that there are currently not alot of sellers and that resistance isn't or at least hasnt been very strong.  Volume has been increasing and is strong.

Right now I am listening alot to Merv for sector performance indicators (although it seems he vanished on a breakout ) and playing it with the broad markets, which oil seems to be coupled with.  See no reason for them to crash on their own, any more than I see copper going to 1.60 or oil to 35.  So there is the battle in my mind.

Dananini....glad to see you back.  You still holding some Aussie U's or what?  What are you thinking?

BTW...I swore last year I would honor sell in May, but have fabricated a new reason this year to believe that somehow more money will flow in this year than normal, as this year is different with too much money being out of the market and missing the upmove, as opposed to too much being in, which woudld be a more normal May position.   Greed returns and people don't want to miss out.  Also Dines did have some interesting stats on May showing that up months performance is improving and that it is not as dominant a trend as it once was.

He was also bearish on Gold and Silver (as close as you will ever get to a sell signal from him) for active management, he was still bullish for the long term for "iron hand on the tiller" investors.

Sorry guys not trying to be an a-hole, just dont like seeing you guys past loitering, its over with, what about now and why?