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Author Topic: Stock Market for April 2009  (Read 118088 times)
MetalMeister
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« Reply #15 on: April 01, 2009, 08:31:06 PM »

Sunseeker,

Did you go to the OCC Report and actually view the data that Butler discussed?  I just did.

Unfrickin' believable!
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Godís Son said the GREATEST Commandment is to LOVE His Father.  Mark 12:30

John 14:31  I love the Father, and as the Father gave Me commandment, so I do.

Exodus 20:8 Remember the Sabbath day, to keep it holy.

1 John 2:6 He who says he abides in Him ought walk just as He walked.
Peter518
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« Reply #16 on: April 01, 2009, 11:17:30 PM »

SPX futures jumps over 10 pt.   Those futures traders must have made a fortune (40 pt in one day!). 

The annexed news as well as M2M news tomorrow may be the reasons for this jump in SPX futures.

Tomorrow we will probably gap up at the open...

There was a good chance to buy back FAS at around 3:00 pm today (bear trap), but missed it again...


By the way, solar energy stocks seem still have legs to run.  Recently, top gainers include STP, CSIQ, YGE, SOLR, SOL, AKNS, JASO, TSL and LDK...

All the best.

===================================================================

House passes new, weaker bill in AIG bonus flap
House passes new, weaker bill in AIG bonus flap after voting earlier to retrieve money via IRS

Anne Flaherty, Associated Press Writer
Wednesday April 1, 2009, 7:52 pm EDT

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The House is taking another, albeit weaker, stab at trying to keep bailed-out financial institutions from paying their employees hefty bonuses after lawmakers had second thoughts about their vote two weeks ago to tax the bonuses away.

A new bill, which passed 247-171 on Wednesday, would allow the bonuses if the Treasury Department and financial regulators determine they are not "unreasonable or excessive."
...
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/House-passes-new-weaker-bill-apf-14823146.html

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Trend is our Friend...
sunseeker
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« Reply #17 on: April 02, 2009, 06:09:52 AM »

Hi YC
I have no interest the COMEX now either (thanks to you).

You can see why the COMEX is being referred to as the CRIMEX.
 
Would it be wrong if I put on a bet for much more than I could ever pay back if it went wrong? If the bet comes up I am worth a fortune. If it doesnít I walk away, and leave it to someone else to pick up the bill.
Thatís what these banks are doing, and its taxpayers money thatís helping them to do it. They will pick up their bonuses for a good job if they prevail. The tax payer will pick up the bill if they fail. Itís a heads you loose, tales I win scenario. All the risk is taken by the taxpayer, but only the rewards go to these banks.

Canít anyone see thatís how we got in this situation in the first place?

Itís the sort of behaviour that the US once frowned upon when practiced in other countries
.
 
Is it any wonder that France, and Germany are pressing for tighter regulation?

ATB

Modified
sorted out my typo
« Last Edit: April 02, 2009, 07:04:46 AM by sunseeker » Logged

sunseeker
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« Reply #18 on: April 02, 2009, 07:25:19 AM »

Who would have thought that a country like Chile would be lecturing the UK, and the US on financial responsibility?

http://www.moneymorning.com/2009/04/02/chile-economy/

ATB
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« Reply #19 on: April 02, 2009, 07:36:13 AM »

Would it be wrong if I put on a bet for much more than I could ever pay back if it went wrong? If the bet comes up I am worth a fortune. If it doesnít I walk away, and leave it to someone else to pick up the bill.
Thatís what these banks are doing, and its taxpayers money thatís helping them to do it. They will pick up their bonuses for a good job if they prevail. The tax payer will pick up the bill if they fail. Itís a heads you loose, tales I win scenario. All the risk is taken by the taxpayer, but only the rewards go to these banks.


I have never heard anyone phrase it in those words, sunseeker... but yes, that is exactly what is happening.  That's sobering to hear you put it that way.

But if the COMEX is no good... where does that leave you if you want to buy the stuff?  Just hope that the price tanks and buy on a dip... and hope it gets manipulated higher eventually???
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jjj000
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« Reply #20 on: April 02, 2009, 09:30:16 AM »

OK, M2M reform was approved by vote by FASB.  Let's see if it's a sell the news or a rally starter.  Banks are making higher highs in Pre-Market...

GLTA
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pinetree
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« Reply #21 on: April 02, 2009, 09:41:09 AM »

Just as I suspected.... we gap up but just below 830...  actually it's 832.98 for the precise high of this channel.  I'll see what happens if that gets taken out, not in a hurry to throw money down in the first hour of trading...

BF - 10 day 1 min.... we seem to be banging up against spx resistance... you see that too?

Seems our two methodologies are both saying the same thing.  We're at a critical resistance level.  How things shake out from here should be interesting.  Trying to be patient....
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Don't be so hard on yourself, perfection is not achievable in the markets.  If you're trying to be perfect at every entry and exit then you will nickel and dime yourself into the psychiatric ward.
sunseeker
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« Reply #22 on: April 02, 2009, 09:56:19 AM »

Thanks 3j3o
Itís to good have a well respected opinion in agreement.
Quote jjjooo
Quote
But if the COMEX is no good... where does that leave you if you want to buy the stuff?  Just hope that the price tanks and buy on a dip... and hope it gets manipulated higher eventually???

Very good question.

ďAny physical commodity contract that doesnít allow for physical delivery is not a legitimate contract. It is the physical delivery option that gives the contract its legitimacy. The originators of these cash settled contracts are either foolish or have intentionally devised a contract that favors naked short sellers.Ē

http://news.silverseek.com/TedButler/1238609316.php

Why is it that the COMEX is being allowed to introduce contracts which arenít backed by the physical metals? Is that because they are no longer able to?

You could say it's gold confiscation by the backdoor.

Next thing you know theyíll be bundling up their shorts, getting them AAA rated and selling them on.

Here am I naÔve enough to think that the regulations were going to be tightened, not relaxed. Is there such a thing as a regulatory authority anymore? The very people that should be restoring confidence in the financial system are destroying it.  Angry Grrrr.

ATB
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pinetree
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« Reply #23 on: April 02, 2009, 10:58:41 AM »

Ok, hope I'm not confusing things by looking at too many indicators... was thinking of jumping in on this but have been looking for any kind of divergences between the financials and broad market, any outperform or underperform....

Here's what I have now....

It's almost 11am EST and the SPX just matched it's 10am EST high, but FAS and XLF are still well below their earlier highs.  XLF is at 9.44 and it's high was 9.62, seems to be lagging the market.  FAS at 6.62 and it's high was 6.84 - these are small divergences but still...

Even with today's gap up the XLF:SPY ratio chart I posted a few days ago has still not broken it's downtrend, still sitting right below that trendline.

Am I right to be concerned about this or am I just being too picky?  For now I'm not going long....

EDIT -
actually I am a little concerned - the financial highs came on the open and its been down since.  On the 5-min timeframe the XLF made a lower high at 10am while SPX made a higher high.  At 11am when SPX exceeded it's earlier high by a few pennies XLF made another lower high.  This underperformance needs to stop before I go into FAS.  Looking for any clues of a sell the news plunge....


« Last Edit: April 02, 2009, 11:15:20 AM by pinetree » Logged

Don't be so hard on yourself, perfection is not achievable in the markets.  If you're trying to be perfect at every entry and exit then you will nickel and dime yourself into the psychiatric ward.
Bottomfeeder
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« Reply #24 on: April 02, 2009, 11:16:20 AM »

Pinetree....right there with you guys.  I added more yesterday at 5.73 (again) and sold all at 6.55.

StockConsultant.com had  XLF listed as a true triple top breakout above 9.62.  What is the high of the XLF today? 9.62, now tailing to 9.39.  Price target 11.82 +30%, that would be 90% approximately for FAS.

You are right on the resistance.  I mean look at that chart!  Its a mess with all the gap ups and downs, leaving sections of just hanging technicals.  What to do?

I wrote a few weeks back about the upcoming news events and how I thought they would impact the market.  I think I listed 4 of them.  3 are out of the bag.  The last one is reporting, which I think begins around 4/15 Shocked.  So if the first to report puts out positive numbers, we get another bump up, which would continue for a bit.  Leading back to Armstrongs top date of what was it again 4/15, 4/22?

I think there is some room to run here but I think tomorrow is a sell off potentially.  I am going to continue to try and buy and sell late in the day.  I made a few bucks on these FAS longs, but frankly blew it and missed alot of $.  Too many gap ups and downs, which I was on the wrong side of.  Gotta do better.


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pinetree
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« Reply #25 on: April 02, 2009, 11:22:17 AM »

Ok, here's the deal... I've identified two main swings in the SPX this morning each making a higher high and on each one the XLF made a lower high after opening at 9.62

$SPX makes a higher high at 837 at 10am, XLF makes a lower high at 9.57
$SPX makes higher high at 842 at 11:20am, XLF a lower high at 9.46

Hmmm.....

Other notes... gold getting clobbered, almost down to the neckline of the "potential" H&S top, that's at 895.
« Last Edit: April 02, 2009, 11:24:08 AM by pinetree » Logged

Don't be so hard on yourself, perfection is not achievable in the markets.  If you're trying to be perfect at every entry and exit then you will nickel and dime yourself into the psychiatric ward.
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« Reply #26 on: April 02, 2009, 11:33:02 AM »

OOPS....I forgot something
Pinetree...  I am looking at that 30 day daily chart with at 10SMA at the moment.  That has my attention, having just crossed over into the first day above, which could go on.

Look at the pattern.  This is the third section (suspended technicals), with the second section making  lower high which is negative, but to me it still looks pretty good.

Ole' Art the trader Grin, says that traders are looking at serious resistance at the 845 level, so any long positions have to keep a finger on the trigger.

What do you guys think?
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Bottomfeeder
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« Reply #27 on: April 02, 2009, 11:38:55 AM »

Serial posting sorry....

I am also looking at FAZ having just barely crossed over into its positive momentum zone.  My strategy has been to buy on the second 10 minute tick, and wait for it to confirm in that period.

So  I am thinking that it is a possibility.  NOT for a long term play mind you just to fill up the gap down from this morning.

Thoughts?

EDIT: By the way its 8:38 am PST, for time reference if you guys get this late!
EDIT EDIT: The momentum is not decisive of course, so be careful.  I am waching the third tick, becuase it may go back negative, because of weakness.
EDIT EDIT EDIT:  In FAZ at 17.71.
« Last Edit: April 02, 2009, 11:54:59 AM by Bottomfeeder » Logged
pinetree
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« Reply #28 on: April 02, 2009, 12:29:26 PM »

Here we go again... SPX breaking out to another new high at 845... and for now the XLF is at 9.43, another lower high...

I'm really torn.  I see this financials weakness and it has to make you consider the possibility of a belated sell the news downswing coming later today, or tomorrow.  Or at least a gap fill downswing.

But if we go by the channel theory we've been working with, then we should be playing for 875 and taking advantage of this financials weakness and buying FAS.

Confusing!  But I guess if trading were easy then everyone would be doing it...
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Don't be so hard on yourself, perfection is not achievable in the markets.  If you're trying to be perfect at every entry and exit then you will nickel and dime yourself into the psychiatric ward.
Bottomfeeder
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« Reply #29 on: April 02, 2009, 12:45:46 PM »

Yes....I am very nervous being short! Shocked

I see this massive wall of buyers millions.....with nowhere as many sellers, yet the price isn't going up......talk about manipulation by major players!!!!

There is going to be a big break coming, just not sure which way.....I may lighten up here into any strength and record a little loss....just to be a bit safer...
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