Stock Market for March 2009

[sidewinder]

Beware the Ids of March...

Been rather busy trying to position for what I think is about to become a wild ride. 
Thought I would put up this link about the ultra ETFs .
   
 http://www.proshares.com/funds/performance/UnderstandingProSharesLongTermPerformance.html

http://www.direxionfunds.com/education/correlation_matrix.html

Know what your'e into.....  This kind of market will rip faces off in both directions.   Hedged?

English did not like the latest news from HSBC and the FTSE slid this AM and recovered a bit at the time of this post. 

Dow Futures have been below 7000.  Where will it stop ??   My guess is 4000 before too long if it cant hold the 7000 level.  with a pause near 5700 or so.  Who knows, but that guess is just as good as any in this market. 

Bottom yet?   Various pundits keep calling Bottom! sooner or later one of them will be right.  Some have multiple bottoms and when it happens they too will have been right sooner or later.  Then they will be all swelled up on MSNBC crowing about how they called the bottom.  Gotta love those guys. 

Thinking about shorting WFC.  Dont think they have seen the bottom Yet. 

See Ya all...   Good Luck

[sidewinder]

Guess I need to make the last post a little more clear.   Personally I AM looking for lower in the markets.  However, I am NOT about to go short just yet because we may get one hella bounce.  Yes I think we get one more very small opp. to go up.  But that just me thinking out loud.  I keep looking at Armstrong models and it sure cant hurt to be cautious for another 7 days.. But that's just me.

If any use pivot point as I do here is a pretty good site. 

http://www.mypivots.com/dn/?symbol=5

 If you are familiar with guerrilla trading strategy, the following stocks are setting up either for a gap & snap or bullish gap surprise plays - ABT, CELG, RTN, AMEDM JNJ, BAX. In the case of gap & sanp, the stock will first gap down and then rallies back. When it trades above the previouis day's low, it is a buy. The bullish gap surprise play is an immediate buy at the open or if you want to be prudent, you wait for a 5-m breakout. In both scenarios, you look for a 2 to 3 dollar profit or quit the next day. As the name implies, guerrilla trading strategy uses hit and run tactics.

from a friend looks interesting.   

[sunseeker]

Hi SW,
I am guessing from your previous post that you are into healthcare/pharm/bio companies at the moment.

Re: Pivot Points
Links to good site that you might like to explore:

http://www.livecharts.co.uk/

http://www.livecharts.co.uk/pivot_points/pivot_points.php?symbol=

http://www.livecharts.co.uk/pivotpoint.php

ATB

[sidewinder]

Hi Sunseeker, Not really the healthcare although that sector has been strong last few days.  These just came up on scans of all stocks a friend did.  We all have several scans done nightly and kind of share the infomation every AM.  Some scans look for gaps, others for other things and depending on market conditions everone just culls out the particular instrument de jour.  This is just day trading stuff, to me its the only way I can trade this market.  By nature I like swing trading but thats simply all but impossible.

Thanks for mentioning the UK site.  As a matter of fact I have had it up all night watching the FTSE sink.

Footsie has tumbled towards 3,700 in the wake of HSBC's huge rights issue and deep cutbacks across its operations.  and HSBC to cut  dividends.   

[sidewinder]

Oh nice Avitar,   I guess we must be cousins.   looks like cousin Travis got in a bit of a mess by mauling that lady a week or so ago and paid the ultimate price. 

http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2009-02-16-chimpanzee-attack_N.htm

[yellowcaked]

Invasion of Planet of the Apes?

Looks like we are set to deep 6 (into the 6000s) today:

Ahead of the market's open, Dow futures tumbled 150, or 2.13 percent, to 6,902. Standard & Poor's 500 index futures sank 18.20, or 2.48 percent, to 716.00, while Nasdaq 100 index futures lost 24.75, or 2.22 percent, to 1,092.25.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Wall-Street-heads-for-another-apf-14508693.html

[yellowcaked]

You know what is interesting is that we are always looking at the DOW.

It shows probably a more accurate drop unlike the DOW as you say they have changed components.  But then again I do not know the Wilshire's components either.  But it does show the drop as far steeper than the .COM bubble burst and 9/11 aftermath.
 
Wilshire 5000 historical:



http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/intchart.asp?symb=97199001&time=20&freq=1&comp=&compidx=aaaaa~0&compind=&uf=0&ma=&maval=&lf=1&lf2=&lf3=&type=2&size=1&txtstyle=&style=&submitted=true&intflavor=basic&origurl=%2Ftools%2Fquotes%2Fintchart.asp

[pinetree]

Hi SW, I've got the same game plan.. think there's a bounce soon and then lower.

I put on some shorts after last weeks +200 day and my target was Dow 6800 but I think I'll close them out this morning, just to be safe. 

What are your thoughts on gold?  I broke down and got into DZZ last week with a plan to short it down to its 50 day and see what happens there.

[sunseeker]

SW.
OMG not cousin Travis.
Used, and then just thrown on the scrap heap. Is that any way to treat a former celebrity? I’ll bet that they didn't even give him the chance give himself up. It need not have come to this with the right counselling he ……….

Hi YC,
That chart does make a good point (Top Left.Zoom select the Max timescale):
http://www.google.com/finance?q=MUTF:WINDX

A worse drop than the Dot com, or 9/11.
Which ever way I look at the chart that drop looks at least 12% deeper than anything else over the 10 year period (steep too). Taking in consideration the time of year, and a new president (popular/depending on your point of view of course), then under those circumstances you would have expected to see a good upward rather than a steep downward trend. My point of view is that it doesn’t bode well for April/May, and beyond.

ATB

Pinetree: My feeling is that we could very well see a short rally (I think that it will be short though). Then again I adopt a more of a gut feeling than a strict technical outlook.

ATB (but not with the gold shorting) LOL

[jjj000]

My crazy predictions from here:

-- DOW 6300 (S&P 635) maybe by Fri this week
-- rally back to DOW 7350 (S&P 770) by 3/24
-- bounce around those levels until May
-- sell in May takes us down to 5500 (S&P 450) by Jul/Aug2009


If you want me to get real crazy...

- after drop to 5500
   - rally back to 7350 (Apr2010)
   - drop back down to 6000 (Aug2010)
   - rally back to 7350 (Mar2011)
   - slow up/down recovery back up to 10,000 from there, starting July 2011

If this actually happened, or anything like it... it would be the money making opportunity of a lifetime playing those swing trades...


Yes, I am completely pulling this all out of my behind.  GLTA...

[sidewinder]

Using a line chart and doing a fib retracement from the 03 low to the 07 high the 1.61 retracement is at 4086 on the DOW and 407 on the S&P. 

Finally some encouraging signs on the Price/Volume relationship with Price Down Volume Up dominating Fri and again today.  PDVU on about half of the Russell-300 1415 stocks.  Patience is a virtue.  Not yet but maybe soon. Not unreasonable to look for a "V" bottom before proceeding lower. 

Think there are something like 5 out of the DOW 30 now under $10 Thought they were not going to allow any stock under that level in the DOW.  C, BAC, AA, GE, GM/  Question is what would they be replaced with?

Sure would like to see two more days with more volume though.

[sidewinder]

Guess the subscribers of Jimmy D's little advice rag will get a "Once again we reccomended you buy just as we reached the bottom" bulletins.  Wish he would send an IWB to the rest of the world some are not getting the message.

[sidewinder]

Thought I would pass on this site just in case.   With the market in such a shape it may pay to know the "circuit Breaker" Levels.  the site here gives the market circuit breaker levels for first quarter 2009.

http://www.nyse.com/press/circuit_breakers.html

[Croaker]

I wonder if the Market Tanked as much because Buffett said the Economy is in shabbles? 

Lets see what Bernake has to say this week and see what the Market does.  Should be a semi support for the Obama Plan, if not I would be greatly surprised.

3j30, you might be right on the DOW levels on either one of your predictions. Scary to say, but ........

I will stay in gold throughout the year. Meaning Buy and Sell. 

Come 2010, I might sit on the sidelines and just watch the craziness.  I thought 2009 would be the worst year, but now it could be 2010 and a 2011 be the "stabilization" year for the market. Meaning sideways.

We (Government) still pumping money like crazy into the Financials has be worried, plus the IMF will be pumping money into all the countries in the world very shortly, we haven't heard about it yet, but it is coming real soon.

We are going to be hearing I quit, I am not paying my debts from alot of countries. This mess is really starting to look very, very, very ,very, very bad.  World wide. 

Prediction - This year is the critical year to stabilize the worlds markets.

LIONS AND TIGER AND BEARS OH MY.  LIONS AND TIGERS AND BEARS OH MY. LIONS AND TIGER AND BEARS OH MY.......Off to OZ to see the wizard!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

Surfing with both eyes wide open.......with JAWS on my @SS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Bottomfeeder]

SW....thanks for the triggers....could be a bottom, at least short term.

Croaker...IMF has been pretty active, but I think your right, 2nd round should be coming.

It is pretty hard to stabalize things in the market, when there is so much policy change going thru the markets, in the midst of an asset crisis, which still seems to be stuck in first gear.  Throw in bankruptcy law changes (the way the world has worked) and associated cram downs and so on, a hidden treasurer, and a government who either doesn't understand or care about the impact of the markets....and what do you have?  An absolute mess.

As for 2010 and 2011.  IF we are lucky enough to have this economy re-inflate, our resource investments should do well.  Its too long a time horizon for me to be able to figure out right now, when the Fed is forced to raise rates to cool inflation, but I am sure we will find our play.

I am thinking about taking my cash at the next top, and allocating to the USD (maybe SP 850 level) as well as Aussie and Canadian.  Looking for some opinion from you guys on the CAD and Aussie idea, as they have been beaten up.