I had to think about this post a little....the board has some fire in its eyes, which is good, and I think to be expected given the performance of the markets, especially the past couple of weeks.
I think in reading the previous posts the most disappointing thing, is that frankly market based comments are being viewed as politics at all! I try to share my perceptions to help myself and others monetize these perceptions. I put more time into this than most guys have and hope that some find it helpful. My interest is in the market perceptions not the political pundits.
If I offended anyone by the "high right hand joke" or the Palin joke, I apologize, but lighten up.
I am personally one that believes that the markets are a great identifier of truth, sometimes taking time to play out.
However, if anyone is taking offense to my perceptions of market reaction to geo-political events than so be it, but please have the courage to post truthfully and thoughtfully, with all YOUR bias's aside.
I mean maybe it is just a coincidence that the markets have been in a freefall since Obama presented his budget? Maybe I missed some new surprising catastropic economic event, that has failed to appear in any business related broadcast, market website or business publication since?
As far as my comments about Obama, I am only judging his body of work as I see it, along with the rest of our government. His constant public appearances, and economic/market related comments, are in my mind completely fair game.
IF you disagree about a specific interpretation, then again, I and I am sure many others would love to see how YOU process the same information and the markets response. Maybe you have a good reason to believe that GDP will grow beyond 5% next year, while our lending arms continue to be broken?
The markets dont have Republican or Democratic dollars, which is why both (investors) are losing their asses just like everyone else that is or wants to be optimistic!
This and the previous Administration/Legislature elected to intervene in these markets and as such are now THE MARKET. I mean the entire market, just about every sector I can think of.
It appears that private capital doesn't see many opportunities to invest in this new marketplace. I mean it just appears that way to me. I feel no sense of responsibility for their choices, nor remorseful for what I believe to be objecitve opinions on it.
DSL specifically I agree with you on valuations. As you know, LEVERAGE is the key component to achieving growth. Which obviously has been my ax to grind, along with the PR gaffs that have continued to surround it. Sorry it is what it is. The S&P cant have growth without leverage. Right? Cant have leverage without banks right? And you cant attract private capital while the public is financing the banks right? I mean how do you think S&P growth occurs? That is the reason why growth projections are heading down and the market is re-pricing. Right?
Better get those bank assets in order FIRST PRIORITY or anything else is just a political populist pipedream, as thrift and deflation will CONTINUE to destroy the financial capacity of our country, lending institutions, and ALL ITS CITIZENS. Remember guys bank stock is PART of a banks capital structure!
As far as what Repulicans and Democrats want, therin lies the problem. They want to CONTINUE to take care of themselves. I mean does anyone here really think that Blago is a political exception? How nieve (sp). (BTW I dont even know or care what party he belongs to.) I could personally care less about anyones pet politicians, and who you like, or for whatever reason you have been conditioned to believe so. I am politically agnostic, and I believe for good reason.
I mean come on did anybody see the bill with 8000 earmarks that Obama isn't going to stop,(against his promise) and neither will McCain (against his promise). They all suck, and the political fleecing of our nations peoples continues. An obvious trend in tact.
I continue to think that the political ideologues are just a bunch of Kool-Aid drinkers, whatever side their on. I mean which is worse McCain not knowing anything about the economy (his words) or Obama thinking that he does? Who cares, neither of them do, and our system for appropriations is broken and biased by politics. I mean how can anything get "fixed" with that as a backdrop?
I mean the Chinese are much better at capital deployment for example, even though they are basically communists. I mean isn't that just the truth? I would rather they design our economic stimulus plan! This lousy second rate government prepared and agreed on a 800B stimulus plan in what 4 weeks? Anybody here think that is intelligent? I spend more time planning for vacations.
Remember an important historical discovery... the world is round not flat, get it?
I mean who is seeking rough landings and smooth landings? The only ones who even think that way are those seeking elective office or supporting those seeking or in office.
Certainly Main Street and Wall Street don't think that way!
To me this is not about Obama's ideology, but rather about him continuing to shove huge spending bills through the government, while his political clout is high. Rubber stamped, plain and simple. If you recall, that is why I stated during the election that I am a "gridlock" guy, checks and balances.
He is way too smart a guy to think that this is the "smoothest" way to go about conducting business in an economic crisis. I mean you think it makes sense to remove charitable deductions from anybody when so many people are hurting, to dis-insentify "private" giving? Is that caring?
Do you think that it makes sense to give home buying credits to buyers and then remove the mortgage deduction in the middle of a housing related financial crisis? Start National Health care legislation first allocating what 600B, then working on a plan second? ? Cap and trade policies, now? All right now in the first 40 days when he hasn't even got his staff hired yet?
In the middle of all this mess? Really?
Smooth?
I haven't seen any Obama "fan" come out and say "man that doesn't seem smart". How come? Because this all looks smart to you guys? Please, not even in your dreams. Why can't you guys do that? Let me answer that for you this way. ITS NOT BECAUSE OF MY POLITICAL BIAS.
If you guys are put off by the markets perceptions, then you should check yourselves and not blame the messengers. If you think that these things aren't impacting the market, then I think you live in a vacuum.
I mean you guys should be out there touting his policies and timing and showing some of us non-believers specifically how this is benefical to creating greater middle class wealth and all the opportunities to monetize them in the marketplace.
Instead you are the same freakin guys out there feeling "better than ever" about gold/silver and the hyperinflation story with your money and talking about the way to create middle class wealth on the other! Talk about conflicted ? Your investment dollars are indicating a trend in tact (continuation) it would appear to me?
Maybe for some of the people "investing" that visit this site, these things dont matter much, because you are "buy and hold" investors, but for guys like me and a few others that are investing AND "trading" these markets, this stuff is essential for timing. I mean it is the market, now. This IS the stuff that these markets are moving on. These policies are what dictate capital deployment and growth!!
Making excuses for losing money, due to manipulation, or this guys fault or not this guys fault might make you guys feel better about losing money, but to me I could care less, its still money lost, and most everyone I know would like to see the markets go up, regardless of their affiliation.
YC....good call there in February
3j...I was all over the Chu stuff but appreiated the post. Remember I am still a U believer!
Croaker...I have been churning the financials long (and losing!), but I think a big upside move is coming here pretty soon. My strategy is to "follow the money" and bet that the bankers are smarter than the politicians.
Sorry for the long post, I gotta get ready for the markets response to the jobs report.
GLTA
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