Stock Market July 2009

[sunseeker]

Hi Uboat

Good link.
When and if a sell off comes I am ready to add.

ATB 

[pinetree]

I agree with Croaker on Mega...  I had pretty much the same target and almost bought some at 1.10 on Friday but decided to hold off.  I also think it will go under $1 on the pinks.

Just read the Nadler article...

Those who assured us that this summer's 'doldrums' will not only not materialize but would be replaced by major rallies towards the lunar surface are now booking vacation tickets that will enable them not to have to write and explain themselves to their (likely) fuming readers.

Ha-ha... he's always got some funny potshots at the goldbugs.  As much as they all hate him, he does turn out to be right quite a bit.  Though if Jim Willie's hitmen can get the job done and take out the Comex he'll really be eating crow...

[onlooker]

Some goldbugs have figured out why John Nadler is often taking pot shots at them.  They uncovered that Nadler writes at Kitco (pro-gold organisation) for free, but he is actually employed by HSBC (gold/silver suppressor organisation).  A fox in a hen house situation.  True or not, I do not know.

True, it appears that Jim Willie’s article on hitmen to take out the Comex has not come true … yet or maybe never.  I note that Jim Willie (and other goldbugs) had to eat crow before for printing out a previous article that didn’t come true.  So, lets forget about Jim Willie’s latest article. 

Instead, lets look at some other news.  There is talk on more stimulus money coming out from the U.S.  This means that the U.S. government will continue on its current course to inflate and debase its own currency. 

See:   Obama Adviser Says U.S. Should Mull Second Stimulus (Update2)   (July 7, 2009)

See:  http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=ajQbZ.WrAVwQ

Plus, unemployment appears not to be getting better both in the U.S. and Europe.

See:  http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/us-sheds-467000-jobs-rate-rises/article1203971/
 
See:  http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/unemployment-on-rise-across-europe/article1203934/

Surely such gloom and doom news means that gold will remain bullish?     

[onlooker]

Sunseeker:

Between November 2008 and February 2009, and despite my being a novice trader; I made great gains through repetitive selling and buying of GLD and SLV.  They are designed for short term trading, and of course, both gold and silver were in bull mode at that time.  So, I have to admit that I have become addicted to them.     

But, before the general public clue in onto the paper gold and silver scams, and the pitfalls of easily obtainable ETFs; I plan to get only physical gold for the long term.  Thanks for presenting Adrian Douglas’ analysis on the paper gold and silver scams.  Also, thanks for repeating http://kcast.kitco.com/ .  I had not seen it before.

[onlooker]

Sidewinder:

Paul Craig Roberts is an economist and was a former Assistant Secretary of the Treasury in the Reagan Administration.  He pulls no punches and confirms who the current U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, Timothy Geithner works and doesn’t work for in the following interview.

See: On the Edge with Max Keiser - 03 July 2009 (pt4 of 4)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XcQJSFJKvy0&eurl=http%3A%2F%2Feconomicedge%2Eblogspot%2Ecom%2F2009%5F07%5F05%5Farchive%2Ehtml&feature=player_embedded

I think it is case closed on whether or not political-economic oligarchy exist in the U.S.

[sidewinder]

Yep,

You know onlooker, isn't it funny how the "Former" officials now tell us the hard truth especially, when "their" party is not in office.  But When "they" were in office the "other" side was yelling the truth to the American people.  It's just enough to make a "normal' citizen puke.

They all remind me of a cowboy movie With Emilio Estevez, Bruce Dern,  Kiefer Sutherland, Lou Diamond-Phillips called "Young Guns".   Bruce Dern and his boys were nothing more than scavengers Who when on the spot of death of some poor souls would Pick over the bodies taking the boots, personal belongings and even pulling the gold filled teeth.  ALL these sum bitches are no different they just wear suits to do the "peoples" work. 

Thanks for the link.

[sidewinder]

I will share one with you now onlooker..... Matt Taibbi from Rolling Stone Mag wrote a good article in the Jul 2 issue entitiled "The Great American Bubble Machine".  short video there also.

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/28816321/the_great_american_bubble_machine/#

[sunseeker]

Hi Onlooker
Just for the record:

I can’t take the credit for finding the K Cast program that honour goes to DSL.

However I did post that I had noticed that stocks often lag movements in the spot price, and you may be able to take advantage of this.

So here’s my check list example for anyone interested.

1) Watch K Cast for the change in sentiment.

2) Double check the K Cast indication isn’t an anomaly.
I look here.
http://www.livecharts.co.uk/MarketCharts/silver.php

3) Look to see which of the big players have been hit on the day.
Good free live prices here (but I don’t know if it works outside the UK);

http://www.shareprice.co.uk
eg.
http://www.shareprice.co.uk/NASDAQ:SSRI/SILVER-STANDARD-RES
(News here as well, but it’s not as good for that)

4) Check your target stock(s) for any bad news that could be affecting the price.
Use your own favourite company news source.

http://www.digitallook.com/
eg
http://www.digitallook.com/companyresearch/133231/Silver_Standard_Resources_Inc./company_news.html

5) No bad news? Then buy.

It shouldn’t take long, especially if your favourites are organised to take you to the relevant company news links (have back up favourites just in case a site is down at the critical time).

It may well have worked for me today but I had a train to catch early this morning.
Never mind opportunities are like trains (there is always another one on its way).

ATB

[sunseeker]

US Mint AGAIN Suspends Gold Coin Sales - Is USA Really Out of Gold?

http://prudentinvestor.blogspot.com/2009/07/us-mint-again-suspends-gold-coin-sales.html

You just can’t print physical gold.


ATB 

[onlooker]

Sunseeker:

I sometimes invest in markets outside of North America (ex. Standard Chartered Bank).  Plus, when something is for free, you can always count me in on taking a look.  Thanks for posting your U.K. links.

[onlooker]

Sidewinder:

Excellent article.  Not only is Matt Taibbi’s article an eye opener, so are some responses from readers, who could be Wall Street insiders. 

These readers reveal that the average investor is not just competing against other ordinary investors along with brokers working for large institutions; but also, against Hal 9000-like computer programs designed to easily get phenomen profits for their super well capitalized creators, the investment banksters.

See:  http://www.djmisc.com/type/super_archives/Paul_Dean_HAL_Sings%20Daisy.jpg

See:  http://content.ytmnd.com/content/4/1/d/41dbb8993730f9f7e6fffe29b11990a1.jpg

At this forum, certain groups of obscure stocks such as those related to Vegas, or car rentals have been found to rise together; and on the flip side, educational stocks have suddenly declined together.  So, for a specific market sector to raise or fall in unison, I suspect that it is either a group of brokers has coordinated their trading activities together or that computer programs have controlled certain market sectors at specific time intervals as ordered by their creators.  I now think that it is more likely for the latter to be true. 

Hoorah for Rolling Stones. I work on Wall Street and have for years feared what GS has become. Taibbi gets most of it right, except the article suggests that GS ran the whole show. All the major firms were involved.

Program Trading: One thing Taibbi misses is how GS has turned the stock market into a roulette wheel with their program trading: Trades that can last only an hour and are run by computer algorithms. On some days GS program trades are nearly 40% of the NYSE volume!!

Through the efficient allocation of human capital, the best and the brightest are attracted into developing (i) derivatives of derivatives of derivates of derivatives of derivatives – for example Collateralized Debt Obligations cube, or (ii) complex trading models to arbitrage on minuscule price differentials. Disciplines with real scientific but no financial value, such as quantum physics, mathematics, aerospace are left for the faint-hearted.

Who would want to spend their life toiling away in the name of scientific research to benefit mankind when the alternative is to strike it rich by pressing a few buttons on a Bloomberg terminal? In the past 50 years, there has been a strong negative correlation between market performance and Space development, with many top rocket scientists being lured into investment banking during the roaring go-go era. These geniuses would develop highly sophisticated vehicles such as Jupiter V, not to go into space, but to hold Collateralized Debt Obligations. In the past 30 years, The Dow has gone up more than 1300% but astronauts are still driving the same Volvo 240 into Space.

Matt Taibbi got this right. When it comes to the whining of the crooks from Goldman Sachs and Wall Street, my guess is they figure they can drown out the truth with lies in number. As someone who experienced the internet boom and bust right in the middle of a company that was fodder for both predator and parasite, the description Matt provides is dead-on. A bunch of knucklehead opportunists looking for the next "big market" or "new products" or "new space" that is prime for marketing overvalued shares to busy people or sometimes people looking for the next money maker to get them to retirement by age 35.

In case you haven't seen this from WSJ:

"for 2009, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is on track to pay out as much as $20 billion this year, or about $700,000 per employee. That would be nearly double the firm's $363,000 average last year"

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124649352055183157.html#mod=testMod

Also, see the following price graphs for two separate commodities; one for gold and the other for silver.  Yet, they are also remarkably alike.  Surely, they are generated by one computer program shared by the bullion dealers?   

http://caseyresearch.com/dImage.php?i=1227183028-gold8.gif

http://caseyresearch.com/dImage.php?i=1227183029-silver7.gif

[sunseeker]

1)
”Some US embassies worldwide are being advised to purchase massive amounts of local currencies; enough to last them a year. Some embassies are being sent enormous amounts of US cash to purchase currencies from those govts, quietly. But not £’s. Inside the State Dept there is a sense of sadness & foreboding that ‘something’ is about to happen, unknown re a date—just that within 180 days, but could be 120-150 days.”

Bob quotes another source that “Panasonic has told their people to be back in Japan by Sept 09.”
2)
“My HSL suspicion is that the elite plan another FDR style “bank holiday” of indefinite length, perhaps very soon, to let the insiders sort-out the bank mess which is getting more out of their control every day. Insiders want/need to impose new bank rules. Widespread nationalization could result, already under way. It could also lead to a formal US$ devaluation, as FDR did by revaluing gold (& then confiscating it). But devalue against what? The euro? Doubtful. Gold? Maybe. Or vs. the IMF basket of currencies (which seems more likely)—& much in the news recently.

Any kind of bank holiday will push the US$ lower, which may be a bonus benefit to their ongoing scenario of letting the $ fall. Such a fall would get the devaluation they want without having to declare it. In sum, the insiders want more bank & system control, fewer banks & a lower US$. A bank holiday would suit all their needs."

http://news.goldseek.com/DollarCollapse/1247638020.php

A basket of currencies (excluding $, and £) as well as PM’s could well be worth consideration.
(good site by the way for all things ETF)
http://etf.stock-encyclopedia.com/scripts/textsearch.php?text=currenc



Very interesting. But will it happen? Especially now when the element of surprise needed for success seems to have all but gone.
Bluff - Double bluff? Anyone here good at playing poker?

ATB 

[onlooker]

Switched from gold ETF to bullion.

Greenlight Holds Bullion, Buys Reinsurance Stocks (Update1)

By Saijel Kishan

July 14 (Bloomberg) -- Greenlight Capital Inc., the $5 billion hedge-fund firm run by David Einhorn, told investors it switched all of its holdings in a gold exchange-traded fund into bullion during the second quarter.
“At a minimum this will provide some savings as the costs of storing gold are less than the fees” for the SPDR Gold Trust, the New York-based firm said yesterday in a letter to investors.

Einhorn, 40, told clients in January he was buying gold for the first time amid the threat of inflation from higher government spending. The firm, started in 1996, held 4.2 million shares of SPDR Gold Trust in the first quarter, making the gold- backed ETF its biggest holding. Gold has climbed 5.8 percent this year.

See:  http://www.bloombergnews.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&sid=arz6MqVbTVBs

[sunseeker]

onlooker

Switched from gold ETF to bullion.

Great news.

Good one onlooker.

ANI flying so far. Bought PEZ today. Hope I can get lucky with that one too.

ATB 

[pinetree]

Not sure how much stock to put in this but I find it very interesting.  I'm fascinated by the sentiment aspect of the market and am really interested in contrarian thinking.  There has actually been a lot of research done on identifying market tops and bottoms from magazine covers and newspaper headlines.  Really interesting.  Just some food for thought...


http://theartofcontrariantrading.blogspot.com/2009/07/contrarian-goes-to-barnes-and-noble.html

I visited Barnes and Noble this past Saturday. Three magazine covers caught my eye. You can see images of them above this post.

The Harper's cover photoshops president Obama's head atop an image of Herber Hoover's body. The title of the story is "Barack Hoover Obama - the Best and Brightest Blow it again". The Forbes cover screams that congress is stealing the recovery. And at the top left of the same cover appears what will probably become known as the worst investment advice of the century: dump stocks, buy bonds.

The Business Week cover touches on a favorite theme of mine - retirement fears. The puchiness of the cover comes from the cover image: a graph of declining stock prices ending as the back of a beach chair. Note the use of the color red - the color of danger and fear.

These three covers tell me that the bearish investment crowd that developed during the Crash of 2008 has hardly diminished in size or intensity during the market rally since the March 2009 lows.


Hulbert also had some interesting observations, this taken from late June when the Dow was at 8500.

That represents a rather quick retreat on the sentiment front, and suggests that we're not seeing the kind of stubbornly-held bullishness that often spells a rally's doom.

Consider, for example, the HSNSI's current level of just 15.8%. The last time this sentiment index was so low was in late March and early April, when the Dow was more than 5% lower than where it stands today.

To put this comparison another way: The average market timer considers the Dow's current level of around 8,500 to be more bearish than the 8,000 level was two months ago.

If you make your best profits by betting against the herd, then it can't be any surprise that the widely watched head and shoulders top appears to have aborted.  We got our fake-out intraday break below the neckline last week and now the short covering spike up.