Stock Market July 21-25

[pinetree]

The thing that's really killing me is that I didn't expect oil to go from 148 to 124 a straight line.  I thought there'd be a recovery that would provide more concrete entry points.  Plus, oil has had some headfakes that have thrown me off, the last time it fell under 130 it turned around rose $10 in one day back in June, or earlier this month when it fell to 135 and then turned around and made a new high.  In each of those cases the airlines made some great gains which were then lost almost immediately.  So that's why I take a day trading strategy on these... and small positions... I'm always expecting oil to start heading up again. 

[Bottomfeeder]

I hate the middle, preferring to buy and sell extremes, overbought and oversold, regardless of sector.

I dont like nor feel the need to be a stock picker in financials, airlines,oil, gold, tech, as to me it only seems to really add risk.  Much easier to just pick the sector and etf with leverage and ride the volitility.

I think that this is the way to go in a bear market, which by nature is a downtrend.  IF you go and buy a bit early in a oversold condition so what.  Selling late is the problem, so dont be greedy and take your profits.

Right now we are in oversold conditions on the U's, period.  I have been reading about all the runs in other sectors from oversold conditions, and reading the frustration on all the misses. 

Well here is another one, in or out?  Example: DNN looks to me  like it has an easy 30% short term upside, as a producer, the juniors even more.  Thoughts?

[pinetree]

Agree about DNN, as a producer they are one of the few U's I'm willing to buy at this stage.  I'm staying clear of the juniors for now... none of them seem to be able to put in a bottom... thought I had one in PNP but boy was I wrong on that!

Looking at a 1-year on DNN it appears we have pretty strong support between 6.10 and 6.70, strong volume on the recent advances and lower volume on the pullbacks is also a positive sign.  One of my stink bids was triggered yesterday and by the looks of it I may have another filled today.

By the way... you bring up a good point comparing the airlines/financials to the U's current positions.  And I agree with Depleted that when these guys break out from their naked short induced hell it will be spectacular.  I just can't deal with holding losers, and who's to say when that will happen?  We could make a guess at an airline bottom based on the overbought extremes oil was at, and a tradable bottom in the financials was apparant when the shorting ban was announced, but I have no clue where these junior U's are going to bottom.

[john77]

Anyone know or can help me explain what Jim Sinclair is saying here:

"I have traded gold backwards to how you should do if speculating in general commodities. In gold I have bought every reaction in a stepladder fashion, selling exactly the same way. It has worked ever time even though I have seen my life pass through my eyes on a few occasions."

It sounds to me he is buying the dips, and selling the rips, but you would think that would apply to all the other commodities as well.

[sidewinder]

Can't believe I got into one of those "everything I buy goes down the next day" Modes.  Went and bought FRG again at 3.70 I guess it will be "Dines typical" and become another $4 stock that goes to .49.  And I'm considering DNN again.   Geeeeezzz Market goes up U's go down.  

Everything on the SEC list of stocks under the emergency rule is up 6 days in a row.  

The securities identified in the Commission's order: BNPQF or BNPQY BAC BCS C CS DSECY DB AZ GS RBS HBC and HSI JPM LEH MER MFG MS UBS FRE FNM.

By making something illegal that is already supposed to be illegal I guess they REALLY REALLY mean it this time.  nymex boyz / nyse members moving large chunks overseas.  They will just continue to play the game from offshore.

Here's a godd read from that A$$wipe Cramer.  

http://www.investigatethesec.com/drupal-5.5/node/264

These markets are manipulated with the express purpose of getting the retail investor's money.  One must be aware and watch for their footprints to trade accordingly.  

[Bottomfeeder]

john...exactly, and this really I think cuts to what Pinetree was just saying in that you can never tell exactly where the bottom is in commodity stocks in general.  Picking the bottom is almost impossible.  So you must buy in "pieces of positions".

I like to look at it as buying in the "U" or turn if you will.  Visualize it.  I may think that its a bottom and buy a partial only to see it drop another 10-20%, then I buy again, maybe it drops another 10% before resuming up, maybe the last buy was the bottom and it heads up.

Either way you have probably ended up with a couple of pretty good entry points on something you want to invest in, especially if you are watching TA and sentiment.

Personally I stuggle on the sell side more, not selling enough shares into resistance.  Its really about greed management more than anything else.  I just keep trying to tighten up my discipline and not making changes on sell orders after I have set them.

Anyway, I have caught more than a few "advisors" say that this is the way you have to play the commodities, and to me these stocks are to be played as commodities.  The good news to me is that my goal is to invest not trade, so as long as I sell them higher than I bought them I will do just fine.  But when a nice rip is there I try and take them, again selling partials.

[sidewinder]

Here's a question Cash Minerals .17.   Worth it or not? 

[jjj000]

Oil is UP but oil stocks are DOWN.  I knew this was going to happen sooner or later.  If this continues... there is going to be serious blood in the streets. 

Commodities are getting hammered.  POT had crazy earnings and the ferts are down (ish).  The U's continue to get creamed.  Solar is down.  PMs are down.  DOW is down.

Doom and gloom.

Oh, and BTW, just to add some humor, Amazon and Qualcomm are UP!!!  Memories of 1998.  Good times.

Looks like oil is ready to retest $131.  Hopefully a surge of a couple bucks in a day will bring some life back to the stocks.  If it doesn't... commodities are in for a real ass kicking, and I'll be shorting and buying PUTS and putting my head in the sand until around October.

Did I say doom and gloom?  Oh ya, I did.

CHX?  No way.  If you want to gamble at least wait until it stops going down.  I would bet on .10 before .20.

[davidslane]

Aug 1: Bad US July job numbers
Aug 5: US Fed holds rates steady again (they won't move on Sept 16 or Oct. 29 because of the US elections)

All will be right after Aug 5.
The US dollar will go down again and oil and gold up.
Financials will start to go back down.


Just wait.

[Croaker]

My thoughts are profits were and are being locked in and now those who sold are waiting as everyone else sells to lock in thiers and then will start to buy back into the commodities after the fall out.

CHX - I am with jjj000. There is nothing in the U's market to move anything up right now.

[pinetree]

I guess commodities are at last being taken out to the woodshed.  I wasn't expecting my 6.55 DNN bid to get filled but looks like it just went through.  Buying into this is like trying to catch falling knives - a little scary.  Glad I moved my stink bids down this morning... I think I'll move them even lower because this could get ugly.  Some below market longshots are worth a try in the strong gold stocks.  Great bargains are on the way!!

Regarding CHX... I'm sticking with the producers because they'll probably be first to react should anything positive happen in the U story.  There's no reason to think the late April low is the bottom for CHX, this thing could easily go to .10 or worse.  Unless the move to ban naked shorting is extended to resource sector juniors I'm steering clear for the time being.

[sidewinder]

Thanks for the input guys.  I will just wait or forget that one.

[sidewinder]

Larimide, Mega, FRG, Santoy, and the rest of Dines portfolio take the dive again today.  They may as well close down the Exporers Club and try again in 2020.  How can they stay listed?  talk about junk.  This has all the look of a big ponzi game.  Newsletter pundits and CEO of shakey operations putting investors money in their pockets. 

[john77]

Geez. Ouch. Anyone want to guess what Dines will say on his next TDL? I don't think there is anyplace to hide in this market, except cash.

[jjj000]

I dunno about Dines.  What can he say.  But hell if he has any recommendations and his herd (or what's left of it) follows, and some sector goes up from what he says... then I'm all for it.  I was up a ton before the April crash... so I'd be happy to follow the guy and be up a ton again.

All I know is... I'm really ashamed and aggravated and quite surprised that we aren't all making boat loads of money here on this board from the stupid simple airlines vs oil play alone.

Seriously, how much easier can it get??  Oil down 2 bucks, airlines up 20%.  Oil up 2 bucks, airlines down 20%.  It's like freaking clockwork.  Check oil and forex an hour before the market opens, go long or short airlines accordingly, cash out before market close.  Rinse.  Repeat.

I figure the oil/airlines play will continue to be playable until Labor Day.  Oil should be volatile as all heck from now through September at least, and no airlines will go bankrupt until they collect all last minute fares from jacked up summer prices.  After that, they'll start to bleed jet fuel/cash and it's just a matter of time.

At least I think so, but... altogether now...  wtfdik...