Stock Market June 2009

[jjj000]

PT - now you see it   I actually got in on 5/27 at 10.05 on an earlier buy signal.  Got out at 11.26 yesterday.  Got scared and exited too early.

Still working on the sell signal.  I haven't figured out whether it's a momentum support failure that's the sell signal, or the reverse of the buy signal (rising OBV, dropping MOM)... or some combination thereabouts...

[Bottomfeeder]

3j....I think you asked me about what I thought about Dines call on rare earths......not much at this point.  I mean I have thought that it would be good to diversify some mining stocks to cover other industry so I will do that. 

I mentioned a month or so ago about a company in South Dakota that had a large discovery of germanium, which is necessary for solar panels, that I need to finish researching.  I haven't researched any of Dines picks yet.

I am thinking right now about managing the ones I have.  I think they will all go up or down pretty much together, so I may look to reallocate to some REE's after exiting some U's at some point.  No big hurry though at this point  IMO.

Did run accross a pretty good article though:

http://.ibtimes.com/articles/20090602/john-kaiser-the-race-to-rare-earths_2.hutm

FRG's situation, nice:


http://www.smallcapinvestor.com/stockresearch/stockstowatch/2009-06-02-fronteer_frg_cooper_gold_uranium

[Bottomfeeder]

3j....moving conversation/question over to this thread....

Since its not Mega Shipping my next guess would have to be Ocean Freight?

[Bottomfeeder]

Hey I just got a e-prospectus on all of Direxion Funds....didn't know about some of these....interesting, thoughts?

http://www.direxionshares.com/pdfs/DRX_prospectus.pdf

Playing with fire on Uranium One....

http://www.miningweekly.com/article/canadiansouth-african-uranium-miner-in-a-central-asian-twilight-zone-2009-06-05

My thinking on this is that with Russia cutting deals with US utilities directly and Kazaks ties to Moscow, Japanese consortium involvement in development, and the possibility and support of a fuel bank there, that the geo-political risks may be overdone.

I am not so sure about it now.  Maybe Kazak isn't really motivated to have a fuel bank there because of all the international oversight it would bring with it.  Could be too limiting and hurt their ability to essentially seize international assets, much the same way Moscow did with BP a couple of years back.

Appreciate all thoughts 

[davidslane]

I wouldn't touch UUU with a 10 foot pole.

I read that one of the Japanese consortiums is pulling out of their UUU deal to buy their uranium.

I also read there is a question that UUU actually has rights to any Kazah uranium and that the person who provided them the contract didn't have authorization to provide them the uranium access and fled the country.

It all sounds very fishy.

Why risk the money. We already know the management sucks.


So many better lottery tickets.

So, are you investing or gambling?

[Bottomfeeder]

DSL....technical trade first.  Thought I could pick up a few shares for free.  Maybe I will sell out tomorrow and keep 500 shares for nothing, get my money back and be done with it.

I don't know what you call that.

But your right I have always felt the management sucked, but they have spent a ton of money developing assets to production level, you would think that at some point they would be able to monetize something or get taken over, something.

I haven't caught anything on the Japanese pulling out.  My understanding is that they ponied up like 200M for the mine, which "surprisingly" just opened up on April 24 (about then) then what do you know.....they committed criminal offense. 

Just looks like a shakedown to me, but that doesn't mean it cant be damaging to the co.  Hell the whole Ur-Asia deal with Billy boy was the basis for the whole deal....talk about shady .

[designer]

I wouldn't touch UUU with a 10 foot pole.

((I read that one of the Japanese consortiums is pulling out of their UUU deal to buy their uranium.))

Davidslane...can you post the link that states the above?
Thanks.

[davidslane]

That's an error on the Japanese thing, sorry.

I saw a headline about Atna may pull out of a UUU mine in Wyoming, but I didn't read it any more thoroughly and thought it had to do with Kazahistan.

Sorry for that misinformaiton.


Still wouldn't touch UUU though, just like I wouldn't touch HL.  But I guess if your play is to day trade a few points, that's a different story. I'm going for multi-year holdings.

[designer]

Regarding UUU, here is a post from the google finance board that confirms my gut feeling
the whole time. I was in at 1.65 and will remain with this prize till I make a fortune.....
These are the opportunities I wait for 2-3 times a year..........


I am now carefully watching the development of situation with UUU
assets in Kazastan, since I can read local Kazah news and understand
how business works in post-soviet southern countries. This is what I
can tell about current situation:

   1. previous boss of Kazaatomprom is going to jail for sure.
Authorities have already found a lot of illegal money, covered
transfer of assets to offshore companies etc. This is quite common for
this region; there is nothing really special about that particular
case.

   2. Government did not tell anything seizure of uranium minefield
assets from current western owners. They have big plans for future
development and confiscation of assets from legal owners can heavily
damage future of Kazakhstan uranium minefield business. For example
Kazakhstan government talks about uranium minefield development with
Toshiba, some Chinese companies, etc.

 3. This is not the first time (and not a second time too) when
Kazaatomprom has a tensions with government. Kazaatomprom has powerful
enemies, just because this is a one of very few profitable businesses
in a very poor country. So, this is just another round.

Conclusion: UUU will have private chat with Kazakhstan government,
pays regular bribe to smooth the process and after a few day we will
see an official confirmation of legitimate ownership for these
minefield, as they did before already three of four times.


The list of resources I used:

http://www.maek.kz/
http://rus.azattyq.org/content/Mukhtar_Dzhakishev_Kazatomprom/1600716...
http://www.miningworld.kz/ru/2009/news/uranium_mining_09/
http://www.time.kz/index.php?newsid=10781

[davidslane]

Personally, I wouldn't make an investment based off of a google finance board entry.
There are a lot of pumpers there.

Buyer beware.

Just saying...

[Bottomfeeder]

Designer....I too am watching this closely.  The Kazak government has alot to lose by illegal asset seizure, with many resources to be developed around the world.  I would think that Russia needs those reserves to be developed for western exports in the future and will have to be careful, as contracts can be cancelled as quickly as they are signed.

Thank you for your research, and please keep us posted on any future news discoveries.

Still holding.

[designer]

Davidslane...and as such I have made no investments based on what is said on this board!
I do agree "Buyer beware" but then none of us gets out of here alive anyway..haha
I just thought this whole thing was overblown in the first place and the politics simply
would not allow this level of expropriation with so many major global players involved
in this booming sector!

Bottomfeeder...totally agree....although these guys are square heads (I have a friend that worked in
the oil business in Kazakhstan). and corruption is a way of life, they are still intelligent enough to know
that a FU this big would destroy the relations with all involved, therefore my money says it will get quickly
resolved providing us big time gamblers to get in at a point that never would have normally occurred.

[jjj000]

I'm gonna stay out of this one and let you guys figure out the fundamentals on UUU from a political perspective

OBVMO says Uranium One was a buy on 6/4 (when looking at the US pink sheet SXRZF chart).  That's all I need to know.  I guess enough other people think the sell off was overdone as well, and momentum has turned up on the stock since yesterday.

UUU.TO may look different on the timing a bit, but I'm sure it's close...

[Bottomfeeder]

Designer.....my girlfriend is Hungarian, and her father carried the communist card back in the day, so I have been fortunate to get exposed to a very different way of thinking, which is cool.

BTW....she rejects those principals, nonetheless it is interesting the way she processes and understands the nature of the eastern european and central asian cultures.

Her father was a geologist and they spent alot of time in Mongolia, when she was a child prospecting and so on, pretty interesting and a very primitive life back in the day.
 
3j....here are some fundamentals on UUU:

http://www.miningweekly.com/article/prospects-still-solid-for-organic-acquisitive-growth-at-uranium-one-ceo-2009-06-05

[MetalMeister]

Moving this here from May thread.

Cash is definitely a big gamble for me.  But I believe that I will make money just on their proven coal reserves alone.

Someone will buy them for their U reserves.  Their 43-101 is supposed to be completed sometime next year.

I have no Santoy, but I have some Melkior Resources MKR.v which since last December-ish is about a triple.  What I like about them is their gold drilling results.  When the money starts flowing back into juniors then they will be worth .80 easily, IMHO.  Melkior was partners with Santoy in uranium prospecting, no longer, but I just liked their gold assays and drilling results so I watched them for a long time.  I bought in the first time in the .30s then sold after they went to .60-.70, sold at .50 because I was afraid they would drop way down again in late 2007-ish, I think.

I always liked Santoy but something held me back from buying their story.    Can't remember what it was, maybe because Pinetree Capital was never invested in them?  Pinetree was invested in GEM but I never bought that one either.

Over a million shares!

Ok, now the question everyone wants to know.... how much Santoy do you have?