Stock Market June 2011

[onlooker]

The DJI sled down from 15625 to 12290 in one day.  Is this going to be another 2008 scenario coming up this summer?

IMO, nope. 

I think that back in 2008, the markets were less manipulated, and the market waterfall was an unexpected event.

Whereas, I suspect that the June 1, heavily manipulated DJI’s waterfall was engineered by the Big Boyz (named by JDH).

Could be that the Big Boyz created for the masses a raison d'etre for a QE 3?

See:  http://www.zerohedge.com/article/did-fed-just-gave-green-light-sell-stock-market

I will heed to the cautionary note Do not leave your investments on auto pilot this month (June) . 

But, I have not been scared off going into the Big Boyz's engineered markets.  I will be looking for great buying opportunities (bottom feeding)  in commodities.

[onlooker]

I am not a very long time market observer.  I could be wrong, but it appears to me that the DJI slide from 15625 to 12290 in one day is an unusually very orderly decline.     

On markets manipulations.

See:   http://www.zerohedge.com/article/mike-krieger-interviewed

~    ~   ~

This year, for the sheeple, there have been some irrational crashes in the middle of currency, energy, debt, etc  .... crises. 

See:   http://www.gulfbase.com/site/news/Oil-prices-suffer-flash-crash-in-early-May,-eliminates-prior-gains_177526.aspx

See:  http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article28151.html

Could be that these irrational crashes were carried out for a reason.  True purpose of these crashes to be revealed and understood at a later date.

I anticipate more irrational crashes, and then buying opportunites  to come.

[sunseeker]

Bought AGRO yesterday. I got in at a better point than Soros. If the trade turns out well I can take the credit for waiting for a pull back but I wouldn't have even heard of the company without Soros.
The credit for the pick will go to Soros....

http://seekingalpha.com/article/273223-soros-just-spent-455-million-on-adecoagro-and-visteon

I bought LSUG today......

http://www.etfsecurities.com/csl/lev/etfs_sugar_le.asp

My basic theme will be Agriculture orientated for the next few weeks by the looks of things.

Grain, Corn ETFs Rise on Reports of U.S. Crop Damage …..
http://seekingalpha.com/article/274479-grain-corn-etfs-rise-on-reports-of-u-s-crop-damage

I might have jumped the gun by going in too early?

From last year..

Depleted posted..

http://buy-high-sell-higher.com/forum/general-discussion/stock-market-july-2010-t1154.0.html;msg13775#msg13775

Fertilizer stocks looking like they may have hit near term bottoms, or ready for their bottom retest. technically a buy on the next dip, if test fails.

My reply....

http://buy-high-sell-higher.com/forum/general-discussion/stock-market-july-2010-t1154.0.html;msg13782#msg13782

From an old research note I had saved (2008).

Potash Corp.    End of June to end of December   
Potential profit 42.0% on 8 out of 10 trades.

Agrium.             End of June to end of December
Potential profit 25.3% on 8 out of 10 trades.

Thanks for highlighting a seasonal opportunity (and one I had missed).

Team work.

ATB 

[pinetree]

[sidewinder]

That's the channel I'm looking at PT.  Somewhere from 1244-50 would put it at the bottom of the channel for a target.  Then up I think. 

Soon as it starts looking bad enough QE3 ............ We'll see.

[sidewinder]

  I know you are familiar with all the horizontal lines PT, but for the others all those horizontal lines represent Fibonacci points based on the wave one of the S&P emini (ES) in 2002.  To complicated to explain here but sometimes I use the S&P Fib based on the wave 1 from the 1929 crash so these factors are basically one fib series extended harmonically to produce support and resistance points into the future based on Fibonacci numbers of major events.  so there.

  The big red line is a major support/resistance point.  This daily chart shows the ES blowing through this like a knife through butter, upwards at the first of this year then coming back to test that point in March producing a low.  Then 3 waves up to make a high, and then the confusion down, sideways and a pretty good collapse.  this down move to test the March low of 1241.25 is either completed or is still testing.  The price came down to that major support and price got to 1259.50 stopping just short of the Fib line at 1259.43.  Missing it by .07 cents and is now bouncing.  The ES closed today dead on the 9 SMA (red MA line) so it can be anyones guess as to what it's likely to do over the next few days but if this is to continue downward a solid test of the March low will be necessary.  

  Also (not depicted) the bottom of a regression channel from the March of 09 low is around 1244-1250 So in a continued down move that will be a target.  Bottom line is we have to break through that fib line at 1259.43 to extend this test of the low.  I would be very careful here as this could be the end of the down move for the time being.  Any speculation on direction at this point for me is simply a guess with no indication either way.  So, I guess it would depend on the news and action in Europe.  If money pours into the USD and it keeps going up then the markets will keep moving down otherwise a move to new highs.

  There is one other possibility in the future, and that would re-link the USD to the market and they move in unison but that's for later.  For now the inverse relationship in the dollar and the markets simply means the value of the dollar is dropping and the value in the market is actually holding its own but since the price is expressed in dollars it will naturally go higher.  The value in the markets may be actually down or even, if expressed in other currencies.  

Oh, I forgot to add:  The red vertical line running through yesterday's candle is a Fibonacci Time extension taken from October 07 (When this mess really started) to the March 09 low.  That line is the 161.8% point which is also a Major Fib point for trend changes.  I find it interesting that this point in time coincides with Martin Armstrong's end and beginning of, a new 8.6 year wave on his count.  

[dananini]

Has anyone bought some SDS shares (or one of their thousand cousins) for the expected short term ugliness. it just seems like easy money.it was in '08 and  i'm getting the same feeling in my gut right now. as davidslane called it back in late sept. '08, a "big puke" might be in the offing once again.

[sunseeker]

Has anyone bought some SDS shares (or one of their thousand cousins) for the expected short term ugliness. it just seems like easy money.it was in '08 and  i'm getting the same feeling in my gut right now. as davidslane called it back in late sept. '08, a "big puke" might be in the offing once again.

Hi Dan
I thought that  the "big puke" would have happened before now.
My word of caution...
Most market shorters go broke at some point (even Jesse Livermore).
There's so much gloom in the market that everyone probably feels like you do, and that's not usually the best time to short. It's very difficult but developing an opposite (contrarian) mindset seems to be the best shorting strategy.

I just don't short anything. But that's the way I am.
 
It goes without saying.....
Good luck if you go ahead with it (or if you already have).

ATB 

[Tedsundololes]

 êàê ïîõóäåòü êðàñèâî è áûñòðî ,  êàê áûñòðî ïîõóäåòü ôîðóìû ,  ïîõóäåòü áûñòðî ÿãîäèöè è áåäðà ,  áûñòðûé ñïîñîá ïîõóäåòü áåç äèåò ,  êàê êàê ïîõóäåòü áûñòðî ,  ,  , 

[sunseeker]

êàê ïîõóäåòü êðàñèâî è áûñòðî ,  êàê áûñòðî ïîõóäåòü ôîðóìû ,  ïîõóäåòü áûñòðî ÿãîäèöè è áåäðà ,  áûñòðûé ñïîñîá ïîõóäåòü áåç äèåò ,  êàê êàê ïîõóäåòü áûñòðî ,   ,   ,  

I see your true colurs.
A Ukrainian (Weight Loss System) spammer....

Вы разочаровываете меня.

Пойдите прочь.

 


PS...

JDH

I'm mightily impressed that the site recognises Russian characters.

[sunseeker]

Inflation is coming....

http://brucekrasting.blogspot.com/2011/06/obama-democrats-republicans-and.html

See comments below. There are a few dissenters particularly as to how it could stimulate the housing market, but without QE3 are there any other levers left to pull?

ATB 

My LSUG (2x Sugar) had a very good day. 12.4% up. 

[dananini]

Geez, has anyone on this board ever taken losses like this in a particular sector (u's).
I've been down 100k with 150 in for four years now.Floods, fires, earthquakes,etc.
It's kinda hard to believe it all at this point.I saw today that MGA is down to 31 cents, and it looks like lake maitland might be banned in 2013 if the hippies win.
Who could be this hapless?

[sunseeker]

Geez, has anyone on this board ever taken losses like this in a particular sector (u's).
I've been down 100k with 150 in for four years now.Floods, fires, earthquakes,etc.
It's kinda hard to believe it all at this point.I saw today that MGA is down to 31 cents, and it looks like lake maitland might be banned in 2013 if the hippies win.
Who could be this hapless?

On top of that there's this.
Los Alamos National Laboratory fire........
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43558540/ns/weather/

100k down and you're still here. That's a feat in itself.
You've got balls.
I'd have lost mine for far less than that.  

ATB  

[onlooker]

Input Silver and May 1, 2011 into the Kitco charts

http://www.kitco.com/scripts/hist_charts/daily_graphs.cgi

I use this sudden deep downward drop in price of silver as a reminder as  to why I am currently not buying into precious metals, even though the world and currencies are on fire.

~    ~    ~

This trader offers an explanation as to what is going on in the very schizophrenic precious metal markets.   

See:   

Dan Norcini's Saturday, June 25, 2011

Random Thoughts on the Passing Scene

Having set a benchmark with these extremely high prices, any move lower in commodity prices will be measured against that new benchmark. Should the stock market take out a major downside support level and the economic data turn from bad to worse, Bernanke could rightfully argue that he has "upside room" for another round of QE in terms of commodity prices seeing that they are off recent highs. In other words, the public has now been conditioned with a spike to high prices and any move down from those levels will be seen as relief even if the price stabilizes at a new, permanently higher price level. When corn moves from $3.50 to nearly $8.00, a drop down towards $6.50 will be seen as a bargain even though the price is now $3.00/bushel higher than it was a mere 3 years ago. Same goes for crude oil. A drop from $120 towards $90, or even $80 or $70 will make the stuff look dirt cheap even though it will be trading at twice the price it was back in 2008. The list could go on and on.

What we are seeing then is a sort of three steps forward, two steps back in the commodity markets in terms of prices. The public, whether it realizes it or not, has now been conditioned to accepting the new and permanently higher price levels some of which are tied directly to the loss of purchasing power of the US Dollar. The new NORMAL is higher prices. When another round of QE comes our way, the drive to the former peak will be seen as inflationary but the impact will not be as psychologically devastating as was the first surge to these record highs. The next time it will be met with more of a yawn unless prices surge past these old peaks. Then the cries of inflation will arise once again, the Fed will face another round of criticism and the cycle will be repeated as they back off from stimulus yet again.

In such a fashion will the battle between the forces of deflation and inflation play out with the loser being the middle class and those who do not realize what is happening to their way of life.

http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/06/random-thoughts-on-passing-scene.html

[onlooker]

So, what am I going to do?

I am going to wait for the QE 3 announcement. PIMCO says QE 3 may come about in August.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/22/us-pimco-fed-gross-idUSTRE75L4L820110622

And, if Q E 3 doesn’t happen in August, then I will wait for it to happen before I venture back into the commodities, precious metal markets.

Until then, I am going to enjoy life like teaching my budding four and six year old kids to ride a bike ( and to write their names, to swim, etc ...) – to gain confidence.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9PzoxTgfRO0&feature=player_embedded

Thanks JDH, for posting this great inspirational, infectious video clip in your Believe in Yourself posting.