Stock Market - March 2011

[onlooker]

Oil Prices 2 march 2011 - Oil Prices Advance As Fighting Rages In Libya

Wednesday, March 2, 2011

http://indonsia-stock-exchange.blogspot.com/2011/03/oil-prices-2-march-2011-oil-prices.html

Is there going to be another cycle of a massive increase in oil prices, to be followed by big cuts in consumer spending, and ending with a slowdown in global economies in 2011?

See: 

Oil price spikes and recession intertwined
By Kevin Carmichael   FEBRUARY 25, 2011
 

Oil shocks and recessions go together.

Spikes in the cost of crude were followed by economic downturns in the United States in the each of the decades following the Second World War. Many of those price surges were related to geopolitical events such as the Iran-Iraq War.

It’s little wonder then that the situation in Libya, a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, is making many people nervous.

5. Supply Shock, 2007-2008

Oil prices surged independent of a major geopolitical event. Instability in Iraq and Nigeria played a role, but crude prices shot to a record of around $147 a barrel in July, 2008, mostly because supply failed to keep pace with the rise of China and other emerging market countries. Chinese demand alone increased by 840,000 barrels a day between 2005 and 2007, yet global production actually tumbled after 2008. GDP declined at a rate of 0.7 per cent between the fourth quarter of 2007 and the fourth quarter of 2008.

http://www.cigionline.org/articles/2011/02/oil-price-spikes-and-recession-intertwined

See:

IF Oil Crisis THEN Recession
Posted February 23rd, 2011 by theStockMasters...

Here we go again, pick the point in history, every time we have had an oil crisis we followed that period with a recession.  Only this time add the possiblity of Inflation or Stagflation and get ready for some rocky times.

Be it an oil crisis or the price of crude hitting ridiculous levels (a la 2008), the result has been a terrible recession that follows suit.  Let's review the timeline since 1970.

   

http://thestockmasters.com/node/2807

[MetalMeister]

Let me take exception with those articles.

There was no oil crisis in 2008.

There is no oil crisis now.

The price of oil had nothing to do with the recession(DEPRESSION) we just experienced and are STILL in...   

Here is what is going to happen:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U-kmI1hzbI0&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pa2zhJh2s3E
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sJNIuZOTReg&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JcsoWO4fctg&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QdBtU6lb5AE&feature=related

[onlooker]

MM’s quote:

Here is what is going to happen:
Quote

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U-kmI1hzbI0&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pa2zhJh2s3E
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sJNIuZOTReg&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JcsoWO4fctg&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QdBtU6lb5AE&feature=related

   

Depleted’s quotes:

Hmmm, did this all last year, here we go again...O&G sector on full alert.Spring time is here again...early
My radar screen is full of longer trending big fish moving upstream. Dialing in some from my screen to watch...
BIR.TO, BNK.TO, BKX.TO, AXL.TO, DEE.TO, CQE.TO, SVY.TO and on, and on, and on...technically (visually) exciting.
Do your DD on this sector, you will be pleasantly surprised, and rewarded also. I am only looking at TSX stuff, I am sure there are excellent prospects on the NYSE and AMEX...Good

Ok, now DEJ.TO (Dejour) has finally been activated three days ago, and two days ago was a good time to jump in on the initial pullback from the launching pad..

Sometimes, there’s unusually good, mainstream media reporting which have opened up my eyes, like:

The Price Of Oil            January 12, 2009

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=4713382n

There are dialogues from Lindsey Williams or Jim Willie or Catherine Fitts Austin or John Perkins, or those found at  http://www.theotherrussia.org/  which makes me question what is real and what is not.

And, lately, there are revelations and videos at Wikileaks which confirm that there’s a lot of doctored mainstreamed information.

Putting all the above info together and discarding the misinformation out there, I am getting a better picture of what’s coming.

Oil stocks are indeed looking good!

[sunseeker]

Lent...

We prepare with 40 days of fasting and denial for the greatest feast
of the Christian Church, the Paschal Mystery of Easter.
BUT......
It need not always be about denial (unless your name happens to be Bernanke/Obama  ) and fasting but in a change of mind and heart.

Lent is about altering one's mind-set toward whole new ways of thinking and acting.

I concluded a few years ago that now is good a time to take stock both financially and mentally (after heeding a warning from a long absent member from this site “Adriandunn”) .

So this is the time of year when I tighten up my stop loss, and also sometimes sell all or part of winning positions on good news. Buy when there's blood on the streets. Sell during the victory celebrations.

So I had a busy week the last week.
Sold
FFY for a good profit soon after they announced good results. I did wait until I saw selling pressure materialising. Took a 10 week 9.6% profit
ANGM stop loss for a loss. 7.5% loss (with hindsight too hasty).
Two of my uranium positions
SRI stop loss for a profit. 16.92% profit
FTE stop loss for a profit. 60% profit

But I've now bought WIP
https://www.spdrs.com/product/fund.seam?ticker=WIP

All holdings download.
https://www.spdrs.com/site-content/csv/WIP_All_Holdings.csv

In an inflationary environment this “International Government Inflation-Protected Bond ETF” will do well. I remember reading many years ago about somebody buying something similar in the 80's and doing very well out of it. If we head into an ARMAGEDON scenario of governments defaults then the gold and silver components of my portfolio will fly and I shouldn't be upset. That's the thinking behind that decision anyway.

Has anyone been watching CAF?
It's a whisker away from being a “ten bagger” for me now. Although if it wasn't for the person who recommended it to me I'd have said goodbye by now. Hold on for another double from here he reckons. I don't know about that but he has been right up to now. Personally I've very little to loose from here on.

My copper strategy is struggling for the very first time since I started doing it. At 11.3% up it's falling short of the 20% gains of previous years.


ATB

Off to Clitheroe again tomorrow. Exactly the same scenario as last time.  
http://www.theemporiumclitheroe.co.uk/dowloads/Brasserie.pdf

[Depleted]

Oil in the News.
So far, I have never heard of any, repeat, any, countries in the Middle East, North Africa, etc, that have actually CHANGED their oil exploration, production, or delivery inventories, or OUTPUT. Every news snippet I hear, goes something like" Yes, and the price of oil has climbed a dollar again, on fears of economic instability in the middle east and Libya".  So, the price of Oil is being artificially pumped up, without actual change of oil resources from those counties with "instability". I have yet to hear someone state that Oil delivery has been dropped, minimized, reduced, or something, to justify the oil price, but, nope, I don't expect it, not now. It seems Oil related stocks had started to climb several months ago, long before Egypt, and on NO NEWS TO JUSTIFY THEIR MOVES, and now there has to be a story to account for it. For me, if the X million barrels are delivered per day, under contract, how can the price vary on a notion of instability?    
The goods are being delivered, aren't they??? The market is always changing...I am forever having to rethink, and relearn new strategies for investing...
Depleted
 

[MetalMeister]

DP,

Anything I could say here would be SHEER speculation...   

And looky here, QE3 placed on the FED platter:  http://money.cnn.com/2011/03/07/news/economy/Lockhart_Fed_QE3/index.htm

All I can say is people who follow Lindsey Williams the last 4 years have made a LOT of money!  That guy filtered information on oil going to $150, then to $40, then to $50, then to $70 and now back to $150-$200.

What it amounts to is the REALLY wealthy who run this world are just shaking up the oil market so they can make slaves of everybody else and shake out all the wannabees... 

Have I written here regarding my "sheer speculation" about the Lindsey Williams's doublecross by the elite?

Oil in the News.
So far, I have never heard of any, repeat, any, countries in the Middle East, North Africa, etc, that have actually CHANGED their oil exploration, production, or delivery inventories, or OUTPUT. Every news snippet I hear, goes something like" Yes, and the price of oil has climbed a dollar again, on fears of economic instability in the middle east and Libya".  So, the price of Oil is being artificially pumped up, without actual change of oil resources from those counties with "instability". I have yet to hear someone state that Oil delivery has been dropped, minimized, reduced, or something, to justify the oil price, but, nope, I don't expect it, not now. It seems Oil related stocks had started to climb several months ago, long before Egypt, and on NO NEWS TO JUSTIFY THEIR MOVES, and now there has to be a story to account for it. For me, if the X million barrels are delivered per day, under contract, how can the price vary on a notion of instability?    
The goods are being delivered, aren't they??? The market is always changing...I am forever having to rethink, and relearn new strategies for investing...
Depleted
 

[MetalMeister]

Speaking of oil and natgas, did anyone hear of this in the last few days?

Fracking causing earthquakes!

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/03/06/fracking-arkansas-earthquakes_n_831633.html

[sidewinder]

I have not made up my mind on Williams yet although he has made some claims that have panned out.  My problem is he is on that Alex Jones show all the time.  Some how that guy just grates on my nerves and he is into all that UFO shit.

That doesn't invalidate Lindsey Williams nor anything he says, it's just I have a problem putting credence in some of these "talk show" personalities. 

Just for the record, I do believe Williams latest statements and should that play out I will be pretty much sold on his word.

Alex Jones, Art Bell etc whoo whoo ....  Hey, they get the listeners though.  They might all be wearing tin foil hats but an audience is an audience.  Just look at Charlie Sheen .....  If he don't kill his self I bet he comes out making a ton of dough off this latest escapade.  Them Sheens are a piece of work.  Use to work with a guy that rented the Sheen boys a lear to go to Some place in South America to scout out a location for a film.  They were there about 3-4 days.  When the pilots went to the airport to prepare the plane for departure back to the states the local drug guys were waiting.  They did some kind of swab test on the interior of the Lear and  when they got a positive for cocaine the government confiscated the jet.  LOl  I never did like the guy (the owner) that much and gave him shit everytime I saw him afterwards.  He NEVER got his jet back, I understand the el Presidente of that government is now riding it around like his personal limo.  LOL Too funny and a true story.     

[onlooker]

In the past, tolerable relations between Libya and Saudi Arabia were strained to the max.

See: 

QATAR: Libya's Kadafi bashes Saudi king at Doha summit    March 30, 2009

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/babylonbeyond/2009/03/doha-libyan-pre.html

Tolerable relations between Libya and Saudi Arabia have collapsed.  Where was the cavalry for the Saudis?

See:

Qaddafi counter-offensives raise civil war fears, Saudis evacuated from Libya    
By REUTERS / ARAB NEWS     Mar 7, 2011 

http://arabnews.com/middleeast/article305301.ece

Civil wars end when?  Weeks or months or years?  So, what next?  Can Saudi Arabia still save the world from higher oil prices?    

See: 

The Saudi capacity puzzle
by Izabella Kaminska    Mar 08 2011

Could Saudi Arabia be telling porkies when it comes to its spare capacity capabilities?
It’s something Goldman Sachs analysts are wondering on Tuesday.

For example, they’ve deduced — from reverse-engineering the kingdom’s production levels — that Saudi may have raised output before the crisis in Libya ever broke out.

When added to the Wikileaks cables — which already hinted that Saudi capacity was being misreported on purpose — all this draws serious question marks against any comments from Saudi Arabia trying to pacify production fears.

In short, it looks more and more like Saudi Arabia may be bluffing about its ability to make up for lost production.

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/03/08/507161/the-saudi-capacity-puzzle/

[onlooker]

MM’s quotes:

All I can say is people who follow Lindsey Williams the last 4 years have made a LOT of money!  That guy filtered information on oil going to $150, then to $40, then to $50, then to $70 and now back to $150-$200.

What it amounts to is the REALLY wealthy who run this world are just shaking up the oil market so they can make slaves of everybody else and shake out all the wannabees...

SW’s quote:

Just for the record, I do believe Williams latest statements and should that play out I will be pretty much sold on his word.

Given all the shenanigans confirmed to be carried out by politicians, governments, oligarchs, or exposed by whistleblowers, I would not disregard what Lindsey Williams is saying.

From what I have observed so far in the Middle East, it makes sense to conclude that oil prices will soar in 2011.  All that remains is to see if Lindsey Williams’ end game scenario comes true or not.

[sidewinder]

Well the only thing about what Williams says is that it makes some sense.  Having said that I don't trust these late night AM radio host and I damn sure don't trust any preacher.  Add to the fact that he's a pilot (of some sort or claims to be) and you have a good source of rumor. 

I guess that's how this stuff is sold ....... It makes sense to morons like me.  Now, if this doesn't play out according to their timeline they will say because they alerted YOU the public WE were able to avoid it. 

I'm just going by what the guy already has said and watched it play out.  Could be they twisted to facts to fool me but that's never been too hard.  I hope they are wrong, but it sure looks to be playing in that direction.  Should they be proven wrong they should be run out of town on a rail AFTER being being strung up by the nutz for an hour or two. 

[sunseeker]

Remember this?

Ummm, VANE?  Is that a play on words?  Where is the beef?

I took a bite of ….......
http://www.vaneminerals.com/about/

Well the beef is here....

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201103080700084919C

And here....



Moo... LOL

ATB 

[sunseeker]

I guess that's how this stuff is sold ....... It makes sense to morons like me.  Now, if this doesn't play out according to their timeline they will say because they alerted YOU the public WE were able to avoid it. 

Hi SW

I watched a program on “Quantum Theory.”
One particle can be in two places at same time.

Firing a single atomic/sub atomic particle at a target through two “set” apertures produces two signs of impact.
But when sensors and cameras are introduced to watch or record that behaviour they can only ever see/record one impact.

Conclusion?
The mere act of watching or recording the event alters the behaviour of particles at an atomic/sub atomic level.

To some degree that's true at a normal level too.

ATB 

[MetalMeister]

SW,

That is precisely why I do not listen to Alex Jones.  This UFO stuff is nuts.  No truth to it at all, I believe.  But it is sensational and it helps boost ratings and draw in people that would not ordinarily listen to someone like Lindsey Williams.

Really creeps me out that he does stuff like that.


SS,

Well, that certainly explains that...  Vain you are!

I looked at the chart on VML and saw it lost 94% from it's high a few years ago.  Seems to have gone through the same dilution process as most U stocks over that timeframe.

I did not realize it had a 43-101 inferred resource when I looked it up after you posted it.  How much can you really expect it to rise considering the dilution?  How many pounds/tons of U was the high, in 2007, based on as opposed to what it is now?

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=VML.L+Interactive#chart2:symbol=vml.l;range=5y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined

[sidewinder]

Really creeps me out that he does stuff like that.

yea him and that Art Bell (who lives over the hum from me) play that alien crap to the hilt.  poor dumb bastages listen and eat it up.  Then the area 51 shit geeeezzzzz. 

I have worked with and know several pilots that were lucky (and good) enough to get assignment to "Dreamland"  (pilots term for area 51)  It's called that because it is a pilots dream to get to fly the latest and neatest shit in the world. There is a lot of really, really, neat stuff out at Groom Lake but aliens ain't one of them.  Outside the obvious need for defense security I personally think the major reason for the biggest security is to keep everybody from having any idea how much $$$Money$$$ is being poured into projects there.  But that's just me.  I think the public would shit bricks if they had any idea just how much goes into these projects and yes if it involves government it involves waste and fraud somewhere along the way.  So what better way to make money disappear than national security.  Sorry, that's on a need to know basis ..... butt out, pound sand.