stock Market October 2009

[Uboat]

"Mega Uranium (TSX: T.MGA, Stock Forum) Monday reported that the Western Australia Department of Mines and Petroleum has granted its subsidiary, Redport Exploration Pty. Ltd., a Mining Lease for its Lake Maitland uranium project. This is the first mining lease to be granted for a uranium project in Western Australia since the newly-elected State Government announced in November 2008 that it had removed the ban on uranium mine development in Western Australia. Its shares surged as much as13% to 96 cents."

http://www.stockhouse.com/Community-News/2009/Oct/19/Junior-miner-jumps-on-record-gold-production

[sidewinder]

yea MEGA jumped to as high as .96 but then closed below the previous day.  Looks to me like someone took advantage of the little news for a day trade and a little transfer of wealth.     I don't trust any of these guys.

Biggest volume day for Mega in a year on the pinks.

Technically though, it is set up for a bounce here. 

[sidewinder]

I guess this is old news by now.  Guess JD will buy a chunk and pump the virtues of the Maitland project.  Meanwhile if you are holding it there's 58 million shares joining your pool soon.

Oct 19, 2009 13:33 ET
Mega Uranium Announces $50 Million Public Offering

TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwire - Oct. 19, 2009) -

NOT FOR DISSEMINATION IN THE UNITED STATES OR FOR DISTRIBUTION TO U.S. NEWSWIRE SERVICES
MegaUranium Ltd. (TSX:MGA) ("Mega" or the "Company") is pleased to announcethat it has filed a final short form prospectus today with Canadiansecurities regulatory authorities to qualify the distribution of58,824,000 units, at a price of $0.85 per unit, for gross proceeds of$50,000,400.

Each unit will consist of one common shareof Mega (a "Common Share") and one-half of one common share purchasewarrant, each whole common share purchase warrant (a "Warrant")entitling the holder to acquire one Common Share at a price of $1.25,for a period of 5 years following closing of the offering, subject toearly expiry after 3 years if the 20-day volume weighted average priceof the Common Shares on the Toronto Stock Exchange exceeds $2.50.

Theoffering is being underwritten by a syndicate of underwriters led byRBC Capital Markets and UBS Securities Canada Inc., and includingMacquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd., Thomas Weisel Partners CanadaInc., Haywood Securities Inc., Salman Partners Inc. and DundeeSecurities Corporation.

The units are being offered byway of a short form prospectus in each of the Provinces and Territoriesof Canada, except Quebec, and on a private placement basis in theUnited States and in certain other jurisdictions outside of Canada,pursuant to applicable registration and prospectus exemptions.

Megaintends to use the net proceeds of the offering for the completion offeasibility studies in respect of its Lake Maitland Project, and thedevelopment of the Project, and for working capital and generalcorporate purposes.

The offering is expected to close onor about October 26, 2009 and is subject to the satisfaction of anumber of conditions, including receipt of all necessary regulatoryapprovals, including the approval of the Toronto Stock Exchange.

Thesecurities described in this press release have not been and will notbe registered under the United States Securities Act of 1933, asamended (the "U.S. Securities Act"), or any state securities laws andmay not be offered or sold within the United States unless registeredunder the U.S. Securities Act and applicable state securities laws oran exemption from such registration is available. This press release isfor information purposes only and shall not constitute an offer to sellor the solicitation of an offer to buy nor shall there be any sale ofthe securities in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation orsale would be unlawful.

[dananini]

http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=6F6BBFA8-DC75-0C3B-7E49AA12A41515FD

[dananini]

Sorry about the redundant post. That was an error.
bhp has declared force mageure at olympic dam for it's copper and u supplies.

They're saying 6 months for repairs, so to me that sounds like a year.
I can't paste the articles, so just google bhp olympic dam accident.

If this can't move the producers i completey give up...

[Bottomfeeder]

Yeah Dananini...John Najerian was talking about BHP today stating that production was going to be at 20% of normal production, and was bullish on Cameco to fill the gap. *Remember, CCJ was a buyer in the spot market to make up for their own shortfalls .

Shortly thereafter HUGE volume on the pinks for Uranium One, (almost 13M on the TSX) the unleveraged producer in the marketplace.  Glad I own it, it should take off.  Paladin was also very strong, DNN also had a nice move on very strong volume.  I still think DNN blows and don't like CCJ much better if at all. 

SW as far as Mega goes, hey nobody likes dilution (which is why it sold off yesterday,again ), but only the government can create money out of thin air, so dilution unfortunately is part of the process in becoming a producer.

You should check out that Maitland project.  The U is 1-2 meters below surface, VERY CHEAP TO EXTRACT.  So if it costs us shareholders $50M to access a $3B resource (at current prices), I am fine with it, and frankly would prefer it to the alternative (which is leveraging up).  Dennison is a great example of doing it the wrong way, they levered up, destroyed their balance sheet, and then were forced to sell 20% ownership of the ENTIRE company, to keep their creditors at bay.  That is a sure recipe to become weaker, not stronger.

Mega is doing the same thing that UUU did, after they (UUU)made the Dennison mistake.  Now they are a cash rich producer, with an improved balance sheet and excellent growth prospects.

I mean what better choice do explorers have, sounds crazy but I would rather good projects be funded through dilution, as it is a much better long term platform for growth. I am figuring that Maitland in a couple years will be putting 200M a year on the bottom line (for a decade) thats about a $.75 per share annual, AND thats assuming no growth in long term contract prices, which is unlikely (see Int'l charts IEA.doe.gov)

Then of course you can put a multiple on that.  Dines has been pretty bearish on the stock for a while now (credit due) mostly keeping it in the "hold" camp. 

U's should be taking off from here, spot price rising, equities held up very very well IMO while the metal was correcting.  Continued upward movement in spot, should take the miners to CLOSE at new recovery highs, (like any day now)hopefully getting closer to Merv's 300 call.  Clearly ready to break to the upside.   I hesitate to say that its a no-brainer at this point, but we still need broad markets to just consolidate, while the dollar and oil are currently a non-issue for the U's.  Decoupled.

[Bottomfeeder]

3j.....great posts on shiny rocks, dollars and GDP currency btw.  Kind of think that GDP is the key to long term sustained health of domestic economies, moreso than price of the currency itself, within reason of course. (BTW USD is still 6% higher than a year ago, must be MORE fear in other markets ), and for good reason.

Just need to look Japan to see that.  Currency has been pretty decent (compartively), while their cost of living is high, and no real GDP growth for a long long time.  The Eurozone has been and will continue to suffer going forward IMO as the borders stabilize (limiting statistical GDP growth) and will have sustained HIGH long term unemployment going forward, should they stay on the same currency path.  But hey, at least their currency will be strong, to benefit only the rich who can afford to travel, and import foreign durables.

Good thinkng there 3j....I agree.

[dananini]

I still can't post this f'in link, but for whatever it's worth,repair time at bhp is estimated (by them) to be 6 mths.Not a month or two.

I'm too scarred to buy any more u's, but i don't know...this is good stuff for a below the radar, hated sector.I just can't do it

[dananini]

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/gone-fission-uranium-prices-and-bad-news/article1331764/

[jjj000]

...while the dollar and oil are currently a non-issue for the U's.  Decoupled.

Perhaps the optimism is decoupled... but overall pessimism/dollar strength still wins out and will still drag the U sector down along with it, as we just saw in the last hour of trading today.

Of course I have the benefit of hindsight here when saying that 

[dananini]

Well i promise everyone here, you won't see another u post from me for many months or years.I guess never.

That was disgusting today.TA and fundamentals are out the window now, so i'll hold and hopefully my heirs will benefit some day.

Not to belabor a point, but i read today about madoff sleeping in a bunk below a 21 year old drug criminal, and that his best friend in the yard is a child-molester.

High states everyone!!!!!...back up the truck.

[Bottomfeeder]

ha....yeah open mouth insert foot huh. .  I will be looking at spot on Monday, should be telling, and I will stand by my comments on the move, which will be higher, probably higher than any in the past 3 weeks.

I am a pretty big believer in the power of the broad markets dictating or overruling specific sectors.  Clearly if the financials roll over, more than likely the entire market will follow.  Pretty amazing that Dick Bove' (sp?) can come out with some pretty benign statements aoubt Wells Fargo not being able to sustain growth in the 4th quarter, and all the sudden a giant sucking sound appears.  Whatever.

Technically I don't like the reversal that happened today, but believe that alot of suckers got taken out of a rally.  Not overly concerned.

As far as the U's go, I feel great about it.  The stocks aren't going to roll over very long as long as spot is increasing, and I feel pretty certain that it will continue to increase to at least the $52 dollar level (downtrend resistance level).  The last hour of trading in the U's was swift, but actually did recover a bit before the close, and the volume to the downside was not very compelling.

My decoupling comments were I think still correct.  You didn't see U spot or the miners rising with gold or oil rising, instead you have seen them move relative to the spot price.  That has been going on since the end of last year really.  Good or bad  I think thats the case.  The dollar going up or down doesn't really impact spot, so while ynou may get a head fake here and there, its not really a driver IMO.  Still think RIGHT NOW it is the best metal to be in.

Dananini....chill man, what the stocks dont take off every day, and then therefore they are never going to go up again?  Go back to not looking so much, things are going just fine.  IF your postion is too big reduce it some so you don't make yourself so crazy around short term movements.  Trust your judgment and commit to your path, whatever you decide.  Remember we are in this for the long term secular move (investment), not for daily, weekly or even year or two long disappointments.  As you know when you look back in time a couple of years is really almost nothing in the grand scheme of things.

[Depleted]

The mood here is interesting. Everyone either is fed up with uraniums, or really likes them. There are excellent stocks well positioned for upward movements everywhere. The Spot price movement is embedded in each Uranium chart I pull. If you can't see the opportunities in the Uranium Sector, then Think outside the box people. Oil, Fertilizers, Silver, Gold. WTF... Dananini, you are beginning to sound like me 3 years ago. You seem like a well seasoned investor, I hope things work out for you, Sometimes one needs to shut the computer off and get away from it all for a few days, to recharge your sense of mind. Sound thinking requires at least some relaxation in there somewhere.
AXL.TO earned my entry at a buck this am, do your own DD. The market is great, right now. " The icing on the cake" would be for the uraniums to end their consolidations and return to their uptrends. It IS going to happen...it IS in the charts. Patience is something you will have to learn, and some people learn faster than others. All the best, keep up the good posts....Anyone get the 2 day double on TIM.TO?
For anyone who denies the TA, have a good look at POT.TO. Do you really think the long consolidation that ended in Mid October was a co-incidence? You knew there was going to be "News" at the end of the triangle, because the buying trend for accummulation has been exhausted. We don't know "what" good news would come out, just that something has to justify the upside breakout that was anticipated coming any day now by the chart. The "news" this time was the BHP Billiton takeover rumor of Potash Corp.  Funny how a picture can tell put one's mind at peace.
Cheers...D

[davidslane]

As you all know, I think the fundamentals for the world economies and especially the US suck.


Investors fear that a big drop is coming and a test of the March lows will occur and when a drop starts, the selling will be frantic.


Today felt like the first tremor of a soon to be larger earthquake.


So near the close, I liquidated anything I ownded that wasn't a gold or silver mining stock.
I also lightened up on some of my gold and silver stocks too.

Probably should have sold more, but it is so hard to sell stocks!


I still think owning anything other than gold or silver mining stocks is a waste of investment capital right now.
I still wouldn't be going anywhere near uranium stocks right now. Nor copper, materials, oil, nat gas, etc.


I set up a link comparing some gold, silver and uranium stocks going back 1 year.
It's obvious which did better on average.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=GG#chart9:symbol=gg;range=1y;compare=ngd+slw+pnp.to+mga.to+dml.to+urre+uex.to+ssri;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined



I might have been headfaked out early, and the dollar might still go down driving everything up.
But today's big equities drop while the dollar was making new 52 week lows set off big alarm bells and I now think the risk to the downside greatly outweighs any additional potential short term gain to the top.


Good luck everyone.

[sidewinder]

Interesting reactions.. LOL  I don't see anything spooky going on right now, we got a heads up for a correction after last thursday.  Did trade to the short side for the first time in weeks though.  Only because the market said so.  I actually did not trade since getting out pretty close to the top Monday until last night.  I am only "Trading" futures right now and still holding on to what U stocks I have.  I watch the U sector almost as a disinterested party so can't get emotional about any of this.  CCJ and some others did quite fine today even with the scalping party making raids this afternoon.

If the S&P dips below 1060ish I will have to re-evaluate my bias, but the big trend is still in place and I will be looking for the turn in 5-10 days.  Corrections are good places to make money and if the correction turns out to be a change in trend so be it.  I just can't get too excited about anything these days.  If we get in a tight range bound area I will just spend more time harrasing you guys and not trade in the traffic.  If I have learned anything in the past 3 years it's that patience truly is a virtue.