Stock Market September 2009

[davidslane]

Haven't left ya. Just not actively trading much anymore.


I sold all my uranium stocks in May and haven't touched my account until a week ago when I took all my remaining cash and loaded up on more gold and silver stocks.


I wanted to review my second half prediction from July 8 (my last posting) [below].
[Which is relevant for those monthly traders and not day traders around here.]


I have some changes.

I now think that the coming correction will be pushed off until mid November.
I think we have some more short squeezes as the S&P 500 runs up to around 1150.

I also believe the US dollar is about the break down towards 72 and gold up to around $1,350. And oil to $90. At least into mid November.


But my mid November, the runs will exhaust themselves and back down we will come. The US economy is in shambles, unemployment keeps rising and this will depress stocks in the US for the next half of decade.


I think there is tons of money to be made in gold and silver stocks for the next 2 months. The cause may be China's taking possession of physical gold and silver from COMEX and finally breaking the paper COMEX market. Or it could be the passage of the health care bill in the US or just a squeeze of the massive COMEX shorts (which could take out JP Morgan).


For those uranium lowers out there, I had to give up on that story. It was costing me too much money. Those stocks will probably rally with oil over into November if I'm right, but I'll make better money on gold and silver stocks. And I expect uranium stocks will plummet with the rest of the market as they did in 2008.


I found a new story, and that is gold and silver stocks. By mid November, if I'm right and gold and silver explode upwards, I'll be cutting down to 75% cash, buying some puts, and waiting for a pull back to buy back into gold and silver stocks (keeping a minimum gold/silver position).


The world economy will be so weak the next 5 years or so, I just don't see uranium as the best trade (nor can I find many intermediate term trades I like except gold and silver --- which will itself pull back come November I think).


I'll still be reading here off and on.
Just not much to contribute right now.

Good Luck all.

Let's see if I'm right this time.

Haven't written much in a while.
Still focusing on long term and not short term anymore.


Still, why not throw out another prediction.


We bottom over the next week (maybe even today) and then turn up into Labor Day making new highs for the year for the markets, oil and gold.

This will be driven by better than expected Q2 earnings.


By September, we'll head back down again and come close to retesting the March lows when worries that we are years, not months away from a recovery hit everyone dead on with Q3 warnings.

I expect a lot more Treasury and Govt spending in the 3Q to counter the falling markets which will send gold up towards $1,200 or higher.


As for everyone's favorite uranium, those stocks will follow other commodities, bottoming soon (they often hit their highs in May and then lows in July). And rallying into Labor Day. They'll fall with the rest and then rally on inflation fears with gold come November and onwards.


As for when the post November slide will end? Not sure.
I expect gold/silver will do well, but the whole market including gold and silver could be dormant into April 2010 as we retest the 2009 lows and gold pulls back to the 900's. Gold/silver may rise in 2Q 2010 when a second stimulus bill could be passed.


Let's see if I'm right.

[Bottomfeeder]

Good hearing from you DSL......thanks for your sharing your thoughts.

Here is some fresh Paladin news:

http://www.newswire.ca/en/releases/archive/September2009/08/c3163.html

It will be interesting to see, how the offering goes.  I did notice that the pinky's sold off at EOD, while the TSX maintained the gain.  I guess that they can't shut down the pinks as quick .

Anyway I will look to see what the fallout is.  I have missed that sucker so many times now, this might be an opportunity if an overreaction occurs.

I sold half my Ucore holdings today, left with nothing but freebies.  That btw is my only rare earth play.  I am a bit puzzled that Dines didn't have it on his REE list, given the strong meterologicals that were announced last week.  Frankly, IDK what the heck Jimmy's looking at these days as it relates to his buy/hold/sell timing recs, although I do have my suspicions that he is accumulating the "hated", in spite of his recs.

[Bottomfeeder]

Titan Uranium adding heavyweights to the board it appears.....

http://ca.sys-con.com/node/1098132

Serial posting....

[punter]

Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE: ABX)(TSX: ABX) announced today that it has entered into an agreement with a syndicate of underwriters, led by RBC Capital Markets, Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated, J.P. Morgan Securities Inc. and Scotia Capital Inc., for a bought deal public offering for gross proceeds of approximately $3.0 billion representing 81.2 million common shares of Barrick at a price of $36.95 per share.
 
Barrick intends to use $1.9 billion of the net proceeds to eliminate all of its fixed priced (non-participating) gold contracts (the "Gold Hedges") within the next 12 months and approximately $1.0 billion to eliminate a portion of its floating spot price (fully participating) gold contracts (the "Floating Contracts"). A $5.6 billion charge to earnings will be recorded in the third quarter as a result of a change in accounting treatment for the contracts.

[pinetree]

BF, for a minute there I thought you said you sold half of your core U holdings.  I thought to myself... "what!? the U perma-bull is throwing in the towel!?"  But it's Ucore... UCU.V...

Interesting news on TUE... I haven't followed them but will look into them and check their financials.

[Bottomfeeder]

PT....yeah they also brought in a very highly touted meterological guy a couple of months back. 

I try and pay attention to management and resumes as another indicator.  Of course who the heck really knows, maybe these guys are total drunks fired for banging their receptionists in the board room , but you do the best you can I guess.

All about increasing your probabilities for success as we were discussing on the other boards.  Sudden CFO departures, announced as "immediate" always get my attention too, things like that.  Sarbanes-Oxley anyone?

[sunseeker]

"The UK may have to cut emissions of greenhouse gases by 90% by 2050 so the aviation sector can continue to grow."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8243922.stm

What really annoys me is that the solution is staring them in the face.
The UK could produce all the power that it needs and more if we built nuclear power plants, and supplemented that with wind, wave, or geothermal etc. Doing that would probably cut emissions by even more, and create employment. The same is no doubt true for other nations. All we really need is efficient government to implement the changes. Isn’t that why we have government and what we pay them for?

Which take me back to the post I made by John Embry:

Sunseeker Re: Precious Metals
« Reply #54 on: September 07, 2009, 05:02:18 PM »

Part I
What about uranium?
“John Embry: My attitude is very simple on energy. We are going to have shortages, and alternative energy isn't going to come fast enough.”

http://www.q1publishing.com/dispatch/502/Gold-Outlook%3A-Expolosion-in-the-Price-of-Gold-Imminent

Ironically, in the United States where they are bailing out all the banksters, what the United States really needs is an infrastructure build out.

ATB 

[dananini]

Bf, you wrote a while ago to put pdn shares away in the vault; and look at them in ten years and see $20+.
Why are you worried about .40 here are there?
Did you see the audio mid-afternoon from the pres. stating the placement is NOT to shore up the BS, but rather to go on the hunt? it went from down a quarter this am to up a couple of pennies by EOD.
There's actually rumblings about them going after ccj.Ha ha ha..
I have a ton of U shares and won't ever buy another one.Hopefully my heirs will spend it well.
Your optimism provides me with alot of solace some days.Sorry to get emotional

[onlooker]

Punter quote:
Barrick intends to use $1.9 billion of the net proceeds to eliminate all of its fixed priced (non-participating) gold contracts (the "Gold Hedges") within the next 12 months and approximately $1.0 billion to eliminate a portion of its floating spot price (fully participating) gold contracts (the "Floating Contracts"). A $5.6 billion charge to earnings will be recorded in the third quarter as a result of a change in accounting treatment for the contracts.

More bullish news on gold and silver related to Barrick Gold Corp. and Silver Wheaton Corp.

See:  Al and Roger Wiegand Discuss the Implications of Recent Barrick Action Concerning its Hedge Book - by Al Korelin, Sep 09, 2009

http://www.kitco.com/ind/kitcoradio/index.html

and see:

http://www.financialpost.com/m/story.html?id=1973785&s=Mining

[sidewinder]

Interesting interview with Bob Prechter avaliable for audio download.

http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/2009/Prechter.html

Just below the title on the page you can select the Audio format to use and download

Also if you scroll down the page a bit there are other broadcast.  The current one on top is entitled : How to Forecast Gold and Silver Using the Wave Principle.

With all the talk about Gold and Silver it might be interesting to some.

Enjoy 

[onlooker]

Gold dips in electronic trade after Beige Book
By Laura Mandaro  Sep 9, 2009

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures slid from their settlement price in electronic trading Wednesday after the Federal Reserve released its report on regional economies known as the Beige Book. It said the economy was improving in much of the country led by cautiously optimistic factory owners. Gold for December delivery, the most actively traded contract, fell to $992.8 an ounce in electronic trading, down from a settlement price at $997.10 at the close of floor trading.

Say what? 

The decline in America’s manufacturing resulted in China becoming America’s manufacturing center.  This point was made crystal clear on this site by the infamous video showing a very disturbed man smashing the hell out of a computer.   

The following video provides concrete evidence that the manufacturing sector in China has been decimated. 

See: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YEDFgJACMcQ&eurl=http%3A%2F%2Feconomicedge%2Eblogspot%2Ecom%2F&feature=player_embedded

So, how is it that the Beige Book can report that the U.S. economy has improved as according to their “cautiously optimistic factory owners.”  Who are they?  Where are they?  Is it any wonder why I and others have a hard time believing whatever the Federal Reserve says about the real U.S. economy?

[sidewinder]

Onlooker

Very good video.  I posted about these issues a year ago.  Spent lots of time in HK and Shenzhen. 

Indeed the situation and the way the multi national companies move out in the cover of night without even some warning to the workers shows how uncaring the companies are of the needs and welfare of the workers.  Many of the violent clashes the have occurred sporadicly are because the workers have absolutely nothing in benefits. As pointed out in the video, when a worker leaves his region he gives up any social aid.  So it is a big gamble to come into the cities and work in the factories right now.  When the bubble was building and massive expansion was going on for the countryside resident to come into the city was sort of a no-brainer.  That's where the money was (if you cant call $100-$150 a month money).  Now there is uncertainty and is unsettling to all. This conjecture of China selling product and developing domestic markets will not happen and cant happen for several generations IMHO.  Furthermore, it won't happen with the central government it has now. 

Asia offers the adventurous and enterprising individual vast opportunities in the future as it has many over the past 30 years.  This reset has started to cull out the inefficient and underfunded making the next run even more enticing. If I were younger, I would be testing the waters now but that lifestyle is not for everyone.  One of the things to be mindful of is the current government in China will be looking for scapegoats when an if the S&!t really hits the fan.  This could put impediments (which can be overcome with the right connections) for foreign entrepreneurs.  You really have to think differently to operate in Asia, pure linear thought just won't work.  AND you can't learn this in the west, it has to be boots on the ground type thing, first hand experience.

I really do have compassion for the Chinese worker.  We will just have to wait a bit and see how all this plays out.  I hope they don't withdraw and circle the wagons, everyone will lose.
   

[punter]

I checked a few days ago and eported that I had a gut feeling that something was going on in the Nat Gas market and in particular the HNU. I was rewarded today for waking up and smelling the shitty smaell coming out of the back room that the game was 'in play".

It had been in the grinder for so long that nobody wanted to play. Thats exactly how the plan works in the favor of the traders and not the investors. I was only surprised that they didn't just keep slamming it down to $1.50 as some of my colleagues suspected. I bought a tranche  ( HNU) anyway at the $2.45 level 'cause it just had my hemmeroids itching.

The HNU bounced a  healthy 28% today. Not bad for a few days work.

Now thats out in the open, it will begin to trade on momentum, guess who has lots to sell? It reminds me of the old days when floor traders would 'box trade' ( sell shares back and forth) to one another to make it appear that there was building volume. Suckers the retail in everytime.

Gold..............how can you say enough? This is going to $1200, thats is not the issue, inflation/dollar deflation whatever you term it will push it ( along with all comms hard and soft higher) due to the monetization of general debt.

Whos got the biggest leverage though. Where's the money? The bigs have had a good run, Yamana still may have a few dollars, but will the smalls have a run? Thats where the leverage is. At $1200 there may be enough money to raise in the market rather than having to wait for credit financing which is whats keeping the smalls down right now.

Silver and the smalls are where I'm betting the next really good pop is. As I said I want to make fast money not grind it out. We've all had enough of that this year. I want to be in Europe by Saturday !!!!!!!!

What s the best vehicle for a spectacular rocket ride on  golds....anyone?

[davidslane]

I'm no longer playing the pinks with gold/silver stocks (okay, I have maybe 2) so I can only recommend a bit more conservative picks.


I think the best moonshot is SSRI (I know it's silver).


Look at: MFN, NGD, NXG, SSRI and PAAS.
I'm also a fan of AEM and AUY.


HL, as much as I hate their management, could run high because it's a know quantity and will get a lot of new momentum traders.


I also agree that gold and silver will rocket up the next 8 weeks or so.

I just think that there are too many shorts still in the overall market and the markets won't crash until those shorts give up. I think we have until early November before the next shoe drops.

[jjj000]

Volatile speculative gold stocks??  Small or micro cap?

AZK, VGZ, NGD, CGR, RBY, NXG, TGB (watch copper on this one too)

No pinks there, but no vouching for their legitimacy or quality of reserves or drill results (if any) either.

I just know these ones move pretty quickly with sector momentum in their favor.  Again, these are not the best mining companies, rather just popular stocks among momentum traders.