Stock Market September 2010

[punter]

SS...I like the macro on U and that is why I'm still in...juniors can pop in a heartbeat....U juniors are responding...but we still have a long way to go.....I was also watching PNP. The uptick on gold has washed the pain of the U losses to a great extent.....it sucks but its better than having panicked and run.

I am more excited about the way the HUI is stacking up against the breakout point...two nice CH formations......this si what I've been anticapated...the bullion story is just noise....lets get on with the stocks......that should be juicy if and when.

Contrary to everything I bought NOK this am @ $10. 30. This is a real laggard with a great product line coming out...the old guard is being shown the door and the new emphasis on consumers and gaining exposure in the US market has the potential to get this dog going....speculative....of course....thats where the money is.

[dananini]

Can anyone explain in layman's terms why pnp continues to languish and act like a typical 2007 jd stock.
I know it's up 50% or whatever in the the last few months, but for those of us who did the iron hand on the tiller thing 3 years ago,that's insignificant.
I believe the NAV was 2.20 back in April.
What the f does one do in this situation.
My average cost is $7+, with a shitload of shares.
Any advise would be truly appreciated.

[sidewinder]

SS, I'm almost through the 8 part exponential videos and they are great and well presented by Dr. Bartlett. 

I will stick the series on my blog as Bartlett's "class" might wake up a few people if they take the time to view it in its entirety.  Thanks for the link.  I've been working on a couple of PP documents dealing with this and one on what money really is.  Works in progress intended for my children and grandchildren.  Over the past several years I have began looking at things in life from an entirely different perspective and feel it is important enough to pass on. 

In other news as I am sure you all know the "Miracle Market" just keeps pumping it out.  The dollar keeps going one way and the market the other.  Take your pick.  As a trader one can be long, short, or long and short simultaneously.  I have been looking for the SnP futs to get to 1250is for months now and it may just do it as the dollar has a ways to go maybe a low as 70 on the DX futs. 

Never good at finishing stuff I have about 6 projects going on at any one time and now is no different.  However, given the truth there really is not much point for the younger among us to take any of this life stuff too seriously.  No conspiracy stuff, just facts should give anyone a heads up what the long term hold for this society.  why not enjoy it with those you enjoy and care about and put the rest on hold.  I don't mean become a bum but, do enough to get what you want out of life and the hell with the rest it really isn't that imperative.         

[MetalMeister]

SW/SS,

Well, I did watch the whole series and I say phewwie on Bartlett!!

At first I was getting into the oil graphs and peak oil and peak coal.  The bacteria thing was total crap.  It was a mental setup.  But the oil/coal projections are right on.

He really sets everyone up for the population control thesis.  Pulls you in hook, line, and sinker.  With stink bait...

SS, you are right, what the world needs now is nuclear, nuclear, nuclear.  I think you said that somewhere. 

Amazing that Bartlett does not reach the obvious conclusion but he is only physics and math nut professor and he has never had to actually run anything for a living like a business.  He is a flagrant liberal so I would expect nothing less than an illogical, anti-freemarket solution like population control.  Such liberal deception to focus on the problem and not the solution.  Just spin wheels on people's heads and minds.

I Goggled Bartless.  Here is a good synopsis of his and other's laws:

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5925

Of particular appreciation is the comments section.  Enjoyed that.

I do however believe that it should be innate in every human being not to bring more people into the world than you can provide for until they are "self sustainable"!

Ha, ha!

Why Indians and Chinese, and so many others have so little long term care for their offspring, I do not know.  Now we have Mexicans spilling into the US who have the same lack of foresight.  Interesting, though, I know some in the Philippines and China and they do not think twice about the number of kids that they will have.  Maybe in the Phils it is the Catholic thing?  But what is China and India's excuse, and Pakistan, and on and on?  The Muslim thing, the Hindu thing, the Buddha thing?

I think America could handle most of it's problems if she got rid of illegal immigrants, gave up on maximum health care until you die unless you pay out of pocket, and started building nuclear plants out the wazoo and converting to electricity, among many other things but there will never be the political will before it's too late and guess what?

TOO LATE IS ALREADY HERE!!!



It really is.

It is now my belief that we are going to have a MAJOR negative economic event before the end of the year, maybe before the end of the month of October, which I expect is most likely.

MAJOR.

You and Punter have been writing about what to invest in and I have no answers, period.

I have trouble saying gold and silver now because I do not know if we are on the verge of a gigantic blast off or fall to the dirt when the paper economy fails here in a few more weeks.

I have no idea what stocks to buy.

I feel very sick to my stomach about having so much cash right now.  Was hoping to buy about 50K in 90% junk physical silver on a pullback, but what pullback?

The USD has taken a beating and I believe this is only the very beginning as we will be quantitatively eased out of the value of the cash that we hold.

Ho hum!  At least I got my PMs dirt cheap compared to today's prices!

Dan,

The only thing I can say about holding PNP and other U's is hold steady unless you feel like short term trading them like some of these guys do.  But my guess is that the world is starting to see the reality that nuclear is the only option and those shares will be worth something significant in 3-4 years, IF THE WORLD IS STILL AROUND THEN AND WORLD WAR HAS NOT BROKEN OUT WITH ADDED ADDITION OF FAMINE, PLAGUES, AND PESTILENCE.  I'm not kidding about that either.  All my study of world economics, history, and current events says that we have to have major war sooner than later and that is the way I am preparing for my short term 5-10 year future with that inevitability in mind.

Just my honest opinion, sir...

If, on the other hand you determine that 3-4 years is too long to wait then I would get my cash out now and either short term trade U stocks or/and U's to make up the $7 difference, or buy physical silver and gold with it, or sit back and hope that once all the dust clears that the paper ground you bought shares in for PNP and others is recognized by whoever owns that ground in a few years.

[MetalMeister]

And I just want to add one thought.

Every day that I have sat here the last several months waiting for the sign of when to buy PMs on a dip, the worth of my CASH has dropped, dropped, dropped relative to silver and gold.

I do not agree with Onlooker's thoughts that "cash is king", right now, or going to be king.  I believe the USD is on the way out on it's last leg.

I do, however, understand that real estate is going to deflate significantly in months to come so maybe the dollar will hold it's value relative to real estate?

But then I read a post today about how they might cover up real estate deflation in a government controlled real estate market run by Fannie and Freddie. 

http://johngaltfla.com/blog3/2010/10/05/

I could just kick myself for not buying PM, with this extra cash, 2-3 months ago!

[sidewinder]

YC

I feel very sick to my stomach about having so much cash right now.

You need not suffer further.  I have a solution.  You have my e-mail address;  Simply pay-pal me any amount of cash which might lower the level of your cash holdings to a more palatable level and this will bring you back from the nausea.  I promise.  You will feel better, I will feel better........... a complete win-win situation.  I know you will like the concept if you think about it.   

Did you read what you wrote?  You contradict yourself several times but I do know how excitable you can become.  You should join me on the no bias without proof program it will set you free.  Then again, it could drive you slightly 'round the bend.  If I have time later I will elaborate on my claim of contradiction.   

[MetalMeister]

Excitable...?  hehehehehehe  I call it learn-ed enthusiasm.

Temporary hopelessness in investing is more like it. 

I have just read too much lately and it's wearing me down.  Some people say PMs will rise up another 20-40% before a correction.  Other people say a correction is immanent.  Still others say the bubble is about to burst.  I am only concerned about this temporary 2-3 months where I did not make a decision and now am caught in cash.

When JP Morgan is on the street trying to buy up silver from mining producers, you know something very astounding is about to happen.  They have been getting out of their COT shorts in silver and somewhat gold, I did mention that did I not?  These are very strange times, these last couple of months.  Something astounding is about to happen, something out of the ordinary.  JP Morgan meets with Hecla Mining on Thursday at JP Morgan.

http://www.theflyonthewall.com/permalinks/entry.php/HLid1306515/HL-Hecla-Mining-management-to-meet-with-JP-Morgan

Several guys have told me they are aware of JP Morgan out shopping PM production.  More when I know more.

Contradicted myself?  I have never claimed to be a great writer.  I just spilled my guts thinking out loud on that last 2.  Caught with cash like a rat drowning in a cesspool.

Can't wait for your analysis, doctor!

[sidewinder]

Temporary hopelessness in investing is more like it.

I think that is by design. The money men KNOW the mess they have on their hands.  (once again I think of Mike Montagne here and that leads to Bartlett's lecture on my mindmap.)  This is all reached such a serious level the arguments and theories presented will reach new heights with BOTH sides ranging from fudging the truth to outright lies to protect themselves.  This is part of the reason for confusion. 

We must admit that we hear so many outlandish positions and as the strength of the "institution" fails the fringe and minorities will pounce government placing politicians and bureaucrats at all levels on the defensive, at some point becoming adversarial to the citizen.  (as though they have not almost accomplished this) 

Remember cash IS a position.  although I think silver will be the big winner in this all. 

[sidewinder]

I'm really strapped for time right now and will reply when I get some things cleared out that are ongoing. 

YC, if you want to talk about this send me an e-mail and I will fwd a phone number so you can contact me if you wish. 

[punter]

Dananini...good question. So here we languish with every stock in the uranium universe in the dog house after the global central banks attempt to reprice assets....why....is the operative question when all other sectors have partially recovered....why the lack of intrest in U? My belief is that uranium fell into the wrong hands last round when the institutiona were caught flatfooted by the sudden rise. The re-set is allowing even the dinosaur organizations to take positions and do their M&A at better prices than in the last cycle.

PNP should be doing better if not for the junior gold holdings alone....n'esct ce pas? But wait the junior market hasn't leveraged to gold whatsoever so all PNP's holding are jumior development companies that will perform spectacurily in the year leading up to the blow off phase in gold. The million dollar question is when will that be.....opinions vary...but...the HUI has been rumbling...the juniors will rise in turn...and so will PNP. If we get a '2 fer' at some point along the commodity line with U finally coming back we'll have a happy ending indeed.

PNP is pure speculation...we are not at that phase of the market yet...Research what Casey has to say about phases in the resource market.

If its any consolation...all is not lost or even unusual in the junior U market...these issues can sometimes lay dormant for years. It will only take one in your portfolio to blast off and wash the mess off the paper. When they go ...they go fast....is PNP the one to back...who knows...but it do's have a very diverse stable of possibles...it only takes one..

And ya...that 'iron hand on the tiller bullshit' caught a lot of people sideways.....now only the fundamentals of U will bring about the eventual reality of the sector.......you know the one about the market being able to stay irrational?

Make sure you're broadly invested so that these hiccups don't drag you down totally and take a profit on this gold thing as it runs.....ten percent off the table for every twenty percent rise in your holdings. No more repeats of the old 'hand on the tiller' nonsense. Its always a good thing to take a profit...hope this helps.

[punter]

Oh and buy the way...I bought a shotgun product on the TSX today Sentry Select Precious Metals Diversified ...ticker NCE 703.......why buy just one stock when you can own them all? At this point individual stocks are rank with possibilities but so is the stock universe. Being lazy as I am....I figure I also get the performance of their bullion trading desk in all PM's while I wait for the big blast of in the general stock market as indicated by the double CH this week in the HUI......which may be another way of playing the same thing and will also increase the leverage to a falling USD. Play as you go boys...have a blast.

[sunseeker]

From an e mail a good friend sent me today:

http://marketoracle.co.uk/Article23306.html




From “The Sun” newspapaper.....
Wednesday, October 6th
PETA, 23, from Essex

PETA is delighted that gold has been found in the Chilean mine where 33 workers are trapped. She said: “The timing couldn’t be better. Yesterday I noticed a gold futures reached a record $1,340 an ounce after recent market volatility boosted demand for the metal.”

The miners would be even more delighted if they could get Peta down there with them.

Hi Sidewinder

“SS, I'm almost through the 8 part exponential videos and they are great and well presented by Dr. Bartlett. 

I will stick the series on my blog as Bartlett's "class" might wake up a few people if they take the time to view it in its entirety.  Thanks for the link.”

Thanks for the accolade.

I'm glad a few of you found the time to wade through it.

A few things have cropped up which are taking up my time (like Sidewinder). I never realised retirement would be so hectic.

Catch you when I can.
ATB 

[punter]

follow up on NOK...closed today $10.71 up from my initial buy at $10.38...not spectacular but did so on up volume...I think the bad news has been well priced into this stock. Do your own DD.

I also bought more gold related issues on what I think is a 'dip' on normal profit taking......the price was already coming back towards the end of the market.......perhaps anticapating tommorrows US jobs numbers...the ECB's continuation of stimulus rates....QE can't be avoided in the US...its being pushed by the IMF on western economies.......all non issues to the gold & commodities macro. Good luck.

[MetalMeister]

There's Gold In Them Thar Hills !!!

[punter]

Glad I put more cash to work on golds down day yesterday. NOK looks to close up .5%...if it went up .5% every trade day for a year we'd have a winner. I don't remember if I mentioned YRI.....but I had also taken that at 10.80 and its up a buck...small wins in stealth mode...slow and steady wins the race . I still watch the HUI charts for the big break in gold stocks..its holding steady....maybe the break over 1350 will be the catalyst?