Stockmarket January

[Gonzoo]

?

[jjj000]

That's an accurate assessment.

[MetalMeister]

Not looking for for the USD.  Look at the open interest on December 29.

Starting to look like the shorting of gold and silver!

US DOLLAR COMMERCIAL COT POSITIONS 2009

NOV 17 REPORT

LONGS +372 @ 14,790 or 35.4% of open interest
SHORTS +3,642 @ 12,394 or 29.3% of open interest

DEC 8 REPORT

LONGS +651 @ 10,141 or 20.9% of open interest
SHORTS +11,087 @ 25,222 or 51.9% of open interest

DEC 15 REPORT

LONGS -4,704 @ 5,437 or 10.6% of open interest
SHORTS +7,507 @ 32,729 or 63.8% of open interest

DEC 22 REPORT

LONGS +311 @ 5,748 or 9.6% of open interest
SHORTS +9.015 @41,744 or 69.8% of open interest

DEC 29 REPORT

LONGS +18 @ 5,766 or 9.1% of open interest
SHORTS +5,049 @ 46,793 or 74.1% of open interest

[sidewinder]

Don't worry that was just me on a boring trade day.   

[ArsenalFan]

Long time no see.  Hope your all doing well.  Hope 2009 was a profitable year for some.  Will check in soon......

[ArsenalFan]

DavidsLane had some nice predictions last year.   I plan on getting in to some of his picks.

[dpmp]

AF, where can I find Davids Lane and his picks?

[ArsenalFan]

His predictions for 2009

http://www.buy-high-sell-higher.com/predictions/2009-predictions/

[ArsenalFan]

His predictions for 2010:

http://www.buy-high-sell-higher.com/predictions/2010-predictions/davidslane-2010-predictions/

[jjj000]

we broke through some significant resistance levels on Friday, and we reached R3 for the weekly pivots, which hasn't happened since July... right prior to the run up from 900 to 1100.

And bets against the dollar are once again gathering momentum, as pointed out by YC and supported by Fed outlook and employment numbers.

So all those things indicate we could be in store for a nice run here on commodities and the markets in general from a technicals standpoint.

Of course one bit of unexpected news or downside surprises from econ reports will trump all those technicals... but for now signals as I inteperet them have returned to pointing up.

DYODD, NARTB, JMHO, WTFDIK, bla bla bla 

[davidslane]

I didn't know I was that popular!   


[I should say that I don't trade regularly. I'm more of a buy and hold --- intermediate term investor.]


I might be one of the few folks who thinks deflation will carry the day for the next year or two.

We over leveraged for too long creating way overvalued assets.
We are now deleveraging. I don't care how much money is created, the over inflated value of those assets are still coming down and will over power any monetary inflation short term.

Housing prices, salaries (I speak of first person knowledge here), commerical real estate; all will keep coming down.


As John Mauldin (www.frontlinethoughts.com) writes, we will need 15 million new jobs in 5 years to get back to where we were before the recession hit. Not going to happen. 10% unemployment is here to stay for a while.

Wage deflation will keep price inflation in check.
We'll see lots of new stimulus along with targeted tax hikes for the uber wealthy and targeted tax cuts for small businesses and job creation.


Overall, I don't see the market going much higher. But money stimulus should keep the market from crashing.

Overall, I wouldn't want any other investments other than gold and silver and would rather do miners rather than the bullion ETF's (don't trust them).

High yielding dividend ETFs and stocks would be good too (after a big mid year pull back).
GDXJ seems to be the best overall miner play for gold and silver. Not putting too many eggs in one basket on a single mining stock. The majors just don't move like the juniors so I want more juniors.

And I don't like uranium until this recession passes. Too much uranium fuel will be coming from decomishioned Russian nukes after the US and Russia sign the next START treaty.

I own: AUY, GDXJ, GG, MFN, NXG, XAU.TO, XRA, EXK, FVI.V, PAAS, SLW, SSRI, SVM

My high yield corporate funds watch list includes: PTY, HYF and BTZ



BTW: I really like the site www.goldtrends.org

[Uboat]

Oil on the move!

"Buoyed by expectations of strong Asian growth, financial traders have piled into oil futures in the past several weeks, driving prices to 15-month highs. Analysts say the rising prices come despite continued weakness in U.S. demand, and pose new challenges to hard-pressed consumers."

http://www.globeinvestor.com/servlet/story/GI.20100110.escenic_1426081/GIStory/

[MetalMeister]

Couldn't agree with the last sentence more, DSL.

Here is one thing I want to throw out that many may not be aware of, I would give it a god skim.  Looks b ullish for gold and silver.

Food.  2009 was not a good year for the production of it.  Some pretty interesting numbers...

http://www.marketskeptics.com/2009/12/2010-food-crisis-for-dummies.html

*****2010 Food Crisis for Dummies*****

If you read any economic, financial, or political analysis for 2010 that doesn’t mention the food shortage looming next year, throw it in the trash, as it is worthless. There is overwhelming, undeniable evidence that the world will run out of food next year. When this happens, the resulting triple digit food inflation will lead panicking central banks around the world to dump their foreign reserves to appreciate their currencies and lower the cost of food imports, causing the collapse of the dollar, the treasury market, derivative markets, and the global financial system. The US will experience economic disintegration.

I might be one of the few folks who thinks deflation will carry the day for the next year or two.

We over leveraged for too long creating way overvalued assets.
We are now deleveraging. I don't care how much money is created, the over inflated value of those assets are still coming down and will over power any monetary inflation short term.

Housing prices, salaries (I speak of first person knowledge here), commerical real estate; all will keep coming down.

[sunseeker]

Couldn't agree with the last sentence more, DSL.

Here is one thing I want to throw out that many may not be aware of, I would give it a god skim.  Looks b ullish for gold and silver.

Food.  2009 was not a good year for the production of it.  Some pretty interesting numbers...

http://www.marketskeptics.com/2009/12/2010-food-crisis-for-dummies.html

*****2010 Food Crisis for Dummies*****

If you read any economic, financial, or political analysis for 2010 that doesn’t mention the food shortage looming next year, throw it in the trash, as it is worthless. There is overwhelming, undeniable evidence that the world will run out of food next year. When this happens, the resulting triple digit food inflation will lead panicking central banks around the world to dump their foreign reserves to appreciate their currencies and lower the cost of food imports, causing the collapse of the dollar, the treasury market, derivative markets, and the global financial system. The US will experience economic disintegration.

I might be one of the few folks who thinks deflation will carry the day for the next year or two.

We over leveraged for too long creating way overvalued assets.
We are now deleveraging. I don't care how much money is created, the over inflated value of those assets are still coming down and will over power any monetary inflation short term.

Housing prices, salaries (I speak of first person knowledge here), commerical real estate; all will keep coming down.

Hi YC
Good post.
We discussed this together on a previous occasion.
http://buy-high-sell-higher.com/forum/general-discussion/stock-market-november-2009-t1067.0.html;msg12329#msg12329

That prime fertile land will look a very good move if you ask me.

We have prime growing land of our own around our home, and investments in a number of companies which hold and manage prime fertile land (my low hassle easily bought, easily sold, no tax, managed for me, and hopefully capital generative option).
Whilst we are on the subject only this week I read an article by someone whose recommendations I have followed in the past to very good effect. From another article I read that the Chinese are in the market at present for real estate and prime fertile land which they believe are incredible bargains at these levels.

I can’t provide a link but for those interested:
Sven Lorenz is chief executive of Swiss fund management firm ARBB.
Latest recommendations TRC, ARCO, and JOE (is his highly speculative pick).
All rock solid companies trading well below their highs.
His advice is to buy sit tight and these will pay off. 
As always DYOR.

ATB 

[jjj000]

Good posts guys, thanks for the links will check them out.

Side note - sidewinder, pinetree - any others experiencing that stupid scrolling bug in the text box that jumps around and screws up your typing - I found a fix!! 

Next to your IE8 address field at the top there is an icon that looks like a piece of paper torn in half:


Clicking this will effectively render the page the way the old IE7 browser used to, which will eliminate the error.  NOTE: clicking that link will RELOAD the page so don't do it halfway in the middle of making a post already, as you may lose it...

If you are missing that icon, go into the "Page" menu item just below it. next to "Safety" and "Tools".  You can go to "Compatibility" there and activate that functionality.

Hope this helps.  Apparently this is a huge issue that is causing people to stop posting on many message boards.  Nice work, MSFT.