Stockmarket May

[MetalMeister]

Thought I would throw this article out here on the Amish...

They do have a self sufficient way of life and when society breaks down or oil is running low they will not be affected nearly so much as others.  Most of them live with no electricity or oil consumption.

And we have to admit they are a very happy people.

http://money.cnn.com/2010/05/04/smallbusiness/amish_business_success/index.htm

[pinetree]

Any of you guys got one of those fancy trading platforms where you spell out the number of shares you want rather than type in the number?  Better make sure you don't mix up a "B" with an "M" LOL!  I'm sure glad I don't have one of those.  The other day in a moment of insanity I logged into my brokerage account to buy some Cash Minerals and where it said number of shares I typed in TEN THOUSAND and the order wouldn't work.  Saved me from a real stupid mistake.

Fat Fingers my ass.  Or at least that's all I've heard from people who were there as it happened and are experienced enough to know what they're doing.  But for the media, priority numero uno is to calm the masses and prevent any further stampedes and that's probably the best way to do it.

I mean, if they tried to explain it as someone typing in some extra zeroes it would be believable.  But to hear people like Cramer using the spelling error excuse to is laughable to the extreme.  Just shows what a panic they must have been in to get some explanation out there to the public.

[MetalMeister]

http://www.businessinsider.com/euro-shock-and-awe-will-create-huge-short-squeeze-followed-by-air-pocket-and-market-collapse-2010-5

[MetalMeister]

Now Moodys says they could downgrade US bonds by 2013 if CBO estimates are off.  All depends on % interest on debt to tax revenue...

http://www.businessinsider.com/us-debt-downgrade-moodys-2010-5

[MetalMeister]

They just missed 115Billion...

I wonder what else they have missed?

Government is so smart, aren't they.  Bring more big government to our lives, we love it!!!

Making Moodys look more and more right all the time for a 2013 meltdown of our bond rating...

 

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100511/ap_on_bi_ge/us_health_overhaul_costs

[sunseeker]

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/edmundconway/100005702/us-faces-one-of-biggest-budget-crunches-in-western-world-imf/

“Mervyn King, irked US authorities by pointing out that even the world’s economic superpower has a major fiscal problem -“even the United States, the world’s largest economy, has a very large fiscal deficit” were his words. They were rather vague, but by happy coincidence the International Monetary Fund has chosen to flesh out the issue today. Unfortunately this is a rather long post with a few chunky tables, but it is worth spending a bit of time with – the IMF analysis is fascinating.”

 

[Depleted]

Lots of stuff showing positive gains today, Wooww... the only problem is, they started today at new lower levels, and are desperately trying to come back up to yesterday's close...new lower highs, and new lower lows, down some more....there could be some sort of near term bottom in the next few sessions, though, if only because of the massive amount of blood coming out of the market. Gold and Silver Juniors are done, Senior Gold and Silver stocks are correcting, so waiting there,  so, its almost time to lick the chops and get ready to pounce.......but not yet.
Watching with a more relaxed outlook now...Good Luck and Good Trading, especially to all those day-trader short artists out there...
Cheers, D   

[pinetree]

Looking over the charts this weekend I see that on Friday the VIX put in a bearish engulfing candle, and ES,YM, etc a bullish hammer.

So I am biased to the bull side for the market at this point.  Of course anything can happen, but that's the direction I'm leaning.

The dollar's action last weeks suggests to me that it may have put in a top, at least for a while.  The Euro is ridiculously oversold and could snap back sharply.  If these markets turn it could be bullish for equities, though the market-dollar correlation has been very weak lately so we'll have to see what happens.  This potential scenario would likely be good for gold as well.

I'd love to short the dollar futures if an opportunity presents itself but I'd probably be asking for it since I don't have much experience trading currencies.  I'll probably have to settle for buying some UDN in my IRA...

[Depleted]

I am still seeing a longer term downtrend still intact with sharp upside mini rallies back towards the longer term downtrend. Looking at gold leaders, the bigger guns...This is still a suckers buying oppotunity as I see it, still more blood needed. the recent bottom still requires testing, and the impatient will get burned. The cork hasn't been pushed under the water far enough yet. YC and SS and the like seem to be looking off into the sunset on gold. Yes it will go higher, everyone has said it, agrees with it, problem is leverage. For Gold to double from here, we could be waiting a while, IMHO. Some metal stocks, and miners went 2X to 14X last year, when gold only doulbled, yes safer, but not the loudest bang of the fireworks show. Of course if one has 500k to 1M plus to convert into the yellow metal, well, you too can keep tooting how gold will contiues to rise, and the nest egg grows. For us smaller feeders out there, there is not quite enough leverage to put all the eggs in there, but it sure would be easier, then, I too would nt' have to trade, and could just sit and watch the action from my chaise lounge chair. Someday, maybe someday....

[MetalMeister]

Hey Depleted,

Could you list some of those miners with the multi-times doubling last year?

Would be interested in checking them out and comparing them the various markets and indexes to see if it is possible to get a fix on how those stocks, juniors or producers, are effected by the overall world markets during those time frames.

The only junior I own is MKR.v Melkior, see it on this site, and it did very well for me in the last 18 months or so.

Would appreciate this list.

Thanks,

[pinetree]

I tend to agree, Depleted.  I have been and still am expecting a market bounce.  However I am wondering if we have seen a paradigm shift over the last month, from buy the dips to sell the rallies.  We will see.  I don't like to predict so will take the shorter term opportunities as they come and do my best to stay out of trouble.  I still think the dollar looks toppy but have had no reason to act on my short bias yet and if it wants to keep going higher that's fine with me.

YC, for fun I was looking over the charts of some gold stocks from my old watch list of a couple of years ago.  The best performer I came across was Red Back Mining (RBI.TO).

[sunseeker]

“Lehman's Bankruptcy Estate Sues J.P. Morgan”

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704032704575268843657457202.html

“According to the court filing, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon and other top executives used inside knowledge to take advantage of Lehman as its financial state worsened, forcing Lehman to hand over $8.6B in collateral in September 2008 and triggering a liquidity squeeze that contributed to Lehman's collapse. Lehman says those actions cost the Lehman estate "tens of billions of dollars of value" and caused $5B in direct damages.”

Great to see the number of posts coming in on the site  today.
ATB 

[Depleted]

Hi Guys....
You asked, I will tell… As you know I am basically operating on TA, that is in my comfort zone. I have triggers I filter on that keep fresh lists I scan daily.
Everyone has their own way of peeling an orange….
Since I am in BC, I predominantly track/follow the TSE/TSX for this stuff.
Stuff I have been following, am involved with, or have been involved with.
Some are miners, and some are not, anyways, here is where I have been the last year or so. Ok, ok, YC and SS the numbers are not at 14X, but close, and these do represent good value, especially the first two, which I would consider extremely safe, as safe as any mining company could be.

1) III.TO Imperial Metals…. 2.00 to 21.00    up 9500%
     I mentioned this one on this board quite some time ago, was Bethlehem Copper a while back, my cousin runs a massive Ore truck for them.
 Big Copper deposit near Spences Bridge.

2) TCK/B.TO  Tech Corp 3.35 to 46.92      up 1300%
     I am not sure, but I thought I mentioned this one on the board a while back also.

3) CSI.TO Colossus Minerals 0.51 to 8.68    up 1600%
    I told EVERYONE about this one long before Mr.Dines mentioned it, but he is a good man for telling all his TDLers.

4) SMF.TO Semafo 0.75 to 7.61   up 914%   Miner
5)  STP.V Southern Pacific 0.08 to 1.45  up 1712%  Miner
6)  TSD.V  Tsodilo Res.  0.40 to 2.50   up 525%  Miner
7) VTR.TO  Volta Res  0.26 to 1.79  up 588% Miner
8 ) WTN.TO  Western Coal 0.36 to 6.79  up 1786%  Miner (Coal)
9)  NGD.TO  NewGold  0.94 to 6.67  up 609%  Miner
10) OGC.TO Oceana Gold Corp  0.13 to 3.38  up 2500% Miner

Now some other stuff…NATGAS and some Oils were hot earlier this year and mentioned some on the board.

11) PRE.TO Pacific Rubiales Energy  2.05 to 23.35  up 1039%  Energy
12) TPL.TO  Tethys Peroleum 0.35 to 2.18  up 522%  Energy
       Mentioned this one on the board early,as well as IAE.V (Ithaca Energy)
13) AGT.TO Alliance Grain Traders  7.56 to 35.40 up 368%  Grain
14) SXC.TO     12.60 to 76.03  up  503% Health

So, there you have it. When I have a chance, I will start to turn the microscope over to the American Exchanges and look for value there, but right now, I don’t have the time to spend on it. 2 hours per night is all I can muster, but further scanning would produce some good results there, I am sure. But right now, I am noticing weakness all across the board, that started back in...….welll just look at the charts…
Good Luck and Good Trading.... D     

[MetalMeister]

]http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/05/12/federal-budget-deficit-hi_n_573827.html[url][/url]

[MetalMeister]

I agree with you PT, it's sell the rallies.  I'm not so sure this whole bounce from 6500 Dow has not been a sucker's rally orchestrated by the FED and with strong hands taking the little guy's money

I tend to agree, Depleted.  I have been and still am expecting a market bounce.  However I am wondering if we have seen a paradigm shift over the last month, from buy the dips to sell the rallies.  We will see.  I don't like to predict so will take the shorter term opportunities as they come and do my best to stay out of trouble.  I still think the dollar looks toppy but have had no reason to act on my short bias yet and if it wants to keep going higher that's fine with me.