Stockmarket November 2010

[MetalMeister]

Uboat,

Now I see, definitely a parallel over the last 5 months.

My guess is it continues with QE2 weakening the USD.

Silver has just been closing the gap/ratio on gold lately, plus the big commerical banks continue to sell off some of their shorts each week as they are trying to shed their risk.  They have to take some of their own medicine for a change.  At least everyone thinks that is what is happening.

The big question is how far can the USD drop?  Or should I say how far down can the FED QE2?

Interesting, the stuff I have read so far on the G20 this week from other economies point of view.

They are getting pretty FEDup with this round of devaluation of their investments in us.

http://money.cnn.com/2010/11/08/news/international/quantitative_easing_global_criticism_g20/index.htm

The harshest criticism came Friday from German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble, who told reporters at a conference that, "With all due respect, U.S. policy is clueless."

"It's not that the Americans haven't pumped enough liquidity into the market," he said. "Now to say let's pump more into the market is not going to solve their problems."

Schäuble went further in an interview with the German magazine Der Spiegel in which he said the Fed's move undercuts efforts by the United States and Europe to get the Chinese to allow its currency to rise in value.

"It's inconsistent for the Americans to accuse the Chinese of manipulating exchange rates and then to artificially depress the dollar exchange rate by printing money," he said in the interview.

[sunseeker]

I bought a piece of this today....
AGTA @ 3.8 pence (UK)

http://www.agriterra-ltd.com/

Grain/Cattle ranching/Infrastructure in Africa.

DYOR.

Just heard this............

George W Bush Quote....

"Being the sober guy helped me realise how mindless I must have sounded when I drank." 

http://www.independent.ie/world-news/americas/george-w-bush-the-booze-the-family-and-relaxing-with-books-2413239.html

Ya should have stayed on the sauce Mr President.

ATB 

[sidewinder]

Though I'm sure Dubya would be a hoot to throw back a few pints with, the joke that he actually became president is almost though not quite as sad as the current American experiment into the diversity thing.  I feel quite sure the experiment stops here though.  A guy told me many years ago.  "sometimes you just don't know how hot something is until you touch it"  Well, like a child perhaps we have learned our lesson even if it is too late for some. 

I still find it unusual that a sitting president has a problem producing birth records in this day and age. 

[pinetree]

Hi SW,
Just wondering if you're still day trading.  Haven't seen much market talk from you lately, though maybe that's in part due to the decreased board traffic of late.  I just looked and can't believe it was April 2009 when you started the TA thread and introduced FW stuff you used - it doesn't seem that long ago!  Wow - time flies... 

[sidewinder]

Hi PT, yea got short Monday and shorter Tuesday on the ES.  

So far my little prediction of the SnP futures going to the big 61.8 (about 1234) arriving On or About 11-8-10 before a correction of any significance is hanging on.  We willl see what Monday brings if the dollar can survive a few more days of that can of whoop-ass the Fed opened.  Such a friggin game ya know.  Perception may just be the new reality.  

so I was a little premature on the failure but not by much.  

Doing a lot of life things.  Stuff I have been ignoring for years around the house.  I just check the screen on and off during the day.  

The S&P came right down on schedule and touched the daily 20 SMA.  Should it break the 20 Monday or so it should rapidly move down to the daily 50 SMA now at 1160.  I was short all week for sizable gain but with the volitility did not want to hold over the week end.  That would simply be a crap shoot although I think it will continue down.  There will always be another op to re-enter sunday night. 

[sunseeker]

I managed to carve out a good gain this week....

POL 23% (reporting on Monday)
AAB 4.35%
PNP 7.33%
GPM 4.79%
SXX 20%
RRS (GOLD) 2.27%
SLW 3.55%
FRES 2.62%
I find that haven't mentioned those two here...
FTE 26.26%
KLG 16.67% (Indonesia bought as a turn around after volcano).

% Gains are in £'s which weakened against the $ this week. Ergo they'd look even better.

My new baby is:
AGA
http://www.agarangemaster.com/
http://www.agarangemaster.com/990.htm

Popular......
http://www.aga-web.co.uk/92_1079.htm

They also make Rayburn:
http://www.agarangemaster.com/1001.htm
http://www.rayburn-web.co.uk/what-is-a-rayburn.aspx

My late Aunt and Uncle used to have a Rayburn. I used to get them redundant telegraph poles which I could get hold of for 50 pence a piece. I'd cut them up for them with a chainsaw. One log used to burn for about 6 hours. Carbon neutral and almost for free.
Since I bought in I can see plenty of free sources of wood around where we live.

Currently 85 pence Net Asset Value Approx £1.94.
Excellent/brand name/reputation.
Classic design.

Discount to asset value.
Pays a small dividend (currently Ex).
The sort of value stock that I could imagine Warren Buffett himself taking a liking to.

It's fairly thinly traded. Trading volumes look healthy recently.

Sales pitch over.
Phew.......I should be on commission for this. 

ATB 

[sunseeker]

The war of the currencies is ongoing and will influence the stock market and prices of precious metals. Recent movements showed that a falling dollar lifts the stock market and gold and a rising dollar does the opposite. The Feds printing of 600 billion is also intended to lower the value of the dollar against currencies of China, Japan and Europe thus boosting exports and reducing debt payments.

Europe has countered by tightening debt regulations and shifting risks to bond holders, causing surging bond yields of debt of Ireland, Portugal and Greece and highlighting the problems of the Euro,

ergo we might see a short term reversal of the dollar decline and possibly a reversal of the bull market in stocks and gold this week.  ATB   

Hi Onlooker

People have been predicting a reversal of the bull market in stocks for a while now. It had to happen.

BUT



Spot on. Full marks for your timing.

ATB 

[sidewinder]

Since you like humor SS, here's one for you.  Site is full of clever, naughty songs but this one is my fav. 

http://www.rathergood.com/baps

Again, naughty and for adults only + a sense of humor recommended. 

[pinetree]

The S&P came right down on schedule and touched the daily 20 SMA.  Should it break the 20 Monday or so it should rapidly move down to the daily 50 SMA now at 1160.  I was short all week for sizable gain but with the volitility did not want to hold over the week end.  That would simply be a crap shoot although I think it will continue down.  There will always be another op to re-enter sunday night.

Nice going.  Your calls on market turns have been spot on of late.  I sometimes put up a 40 length linear regression and had noticed on the weekly chart we were up near +2 std dev which usually means things are getting a little too frothy.  So short was the high prob trade for sure.

I had read earlier this year the the few months leading up to mid-term elections is historically one of the most bullish market periods and this year lived up to past precedent in grand fashion.  Was reading recently that the bullish trend does tend to continue over the several months following the elections so will have to see what happens.  Maybe a decline this month before the Santa rally in December...

[sunseeker]

Since you like humor SS, here's one for you.  Site is full of clever, naughty songs but this one is my fav.  

http://www.rathergood.com/baps

Again, naughty and for adults only + a sense of humor recommended.  

Ha ha....Very “Monty Python.
”
You'll see the significance of the following when you are able to watch in full the link I posted on your blog
(for those who don't know  http://sidewindersview.blogspot.com/) .

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=crARnAJv1EM&feature=fvw

You probably know all about this.......
But it was an eye opener to me when I heard about it on the Radio.
The owner apparently ran a “Fitness Studio.” He closed it down through lack of interest and opened this place................

http://www.heartattackgrill.com/


Forgot to mention URU in yesterdays post up 32% on the week (close to a double since I mentioned it).
The U's are doing well aren't they....

The trades follow news reports that China has increased its nuclear-power targets by 60% over the next decade. RBC Capital Markets analysts were among those predicting "a multi-year bull-market cycle" for the fuel in the wake of the reports, at a time when uranium prices have already jumped.

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB10001424052748703585004575604872731975164.html


ATB

[sunseeker]

Sold my KLG & URU today gains just to big to let slip.
Buy when there's blood on the streets. Sell during the victory celebrations.

I put the URU part of the money raised in GCL (adding to existing holding). It had slipped back to 82p at the time (closed at 86).

The KLG money will find a new home if and when.........

ATB 

[sidewinder]

Well, we reached that "tipping point"  George and Cliff have been talking about now the tap dance begins. 

Seems there have been a bunch of earthquakes.......... in places known to have bunches of earthquakes.  Well, this is not a single event anyway but a "tipping point" so things are now set into motion for something.  Not like "cow tipping" which generally occurs at night and when the unsuspecting bovine is asleep.

Got to admit, with the global, domestic and general economic situation the way it is now is a good time to be in the seer bidness. 

[pinetree]

Here's some mid-term election stats: http://www.zealllc.com/2010/mteral.htm

I also wonder how anyone could seriously get excited about mid-term elections.  Same old crap with different idiots indeed.  Kind of like the public repeatedly being fooled when the politicians ask "pull my finger".

Saw your blog post SW.  I agree on the 20sma and have been watching it closely for a few weeks now.  I've had a number of nice trades going long off intraday touches of it.

SS, looks like your copper strategy is working like a charm again this year...

[sunseeker]

Here's some mid-term election stats: http://www.zealllc.com/2010/mteral.htm

I also wonder how anyone could seriously get excited about mid-term elections.  Same old crap with different idiots indeed.  Kind of like the public repeatedly being fooled when the politicians ask "pull my finger".

Saw your blog post SW.  I agree on the 20sma and have been watching it closely for a few weeks now.  I've had a number of nice trades going long off intraday touches of it.

SS, looks like your copper strategy is working like a charm again this year...

Hi PT
Re: Copper
1296 for ANTO (my entry point) is my mark in the sand this year. I'll be adding to my present position should we reach that point again.

It's usually a very bad idea to start averaging down,and under normal circumstances I'd strongly advise anyone against doing it..........
But given the opportunity that's what I intend to do. It may or may not be ANTO but it will be copper (Big copper. Not small copper). News (good/bad) plus a direct comparison with other copper producers against the spot price of copper (I might see a better opportunity elsewhere) will ultimately influence that decision.

http://www.shareprice.co.uk/ANTO/ANTOFAGASTA-PLC

It's always worked for me. There's always a first time for everything so no more than I can afford to loose.
 
I've been out all day on a bit of a jaunt. Fine food/Fine drink  and I've even managed to bring home a few unopened bottles of Rioja. As per usual the timing of this regular trip sparked a bad day for the market. I said to one of my broker friends yesterday before we set off “You know tomorrow is almost certainly going to be a bad one..”So it was far from being unexpected.

My capital at the ready looking for bargains. I posted that I had a +22% cash position. Gritting my teeth along with Yellowcaked. I got impatient and as a consequence I'm now down to 16.5% cash. So far that's been a good move. It rather depends on how deep a slide we witness now as to whether I'll be singing that tune in the coming weeks.

ATB 

[MetalMeister]

There is blood in the he water.

Can you smell it?

They can.  They being the CME.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/cme-raises-gold-futures-margins-6-hikes-silver-margins-second-time-under-week