Super Bowl Indicator positive for the market

[punter]

Giants pull it off. Yahooooooo!!!!, and I'm not even a big football fan . But I am a fan of market statistics. The Giants win ( I'm not going to explain the whole thing , google the explanation yourself) is statistically positive for the markets due to " The Super Bowl Indicator". This stat has been accurate 28 out of 31 times , over 90% of the time.

I called a rally in junior u's when the Giants were down 3 on this forum ( as well as one or two others) , this nails it for me.

Positive technicals on many u issues including PDN, RSC, UEX, CZQ and U ( as well as a few others)

Dines says 'hold', Punter says go. Lets see how it works out. However I would expect an emergency IWB to come out ( late to the party as always) based on the 90% chance that the market will rally from here. Generally the NFC/AFC differential is 17.5%. Stronger for the Amex than DJIA.

Just my opinion of course and this is a chat forum not an advisory. have fun with whatever you decide to do.

[jjj000]

ya I tend to agree with you... not on the Super Bowl correlation... heh... but on the bottom.  I wanted the bottom to be last Thursday, I really did.

Unfortunately I think we hit the gold cycle at a short term over-bought condition... and with those securities now coming down a bit, I think there is some unload sentiment making its way over to our sector still.

So I think once gold stocks perk up again then we'll start to see some wide ranging upward momentum here to match, hopefully lasting for a couple weeks.

Because seriously... if we head down to a new low again... I don't know if I can deal with it

[Bottomfeeder]

I have been thinking that the market already has priced gold with an understanding of the fed getting down to the 2% range.  Notice that gold began to move strongly before (pretty sure) the fed started cutting rates and that the dollar even with the heavy cutting over the past couple of weeks has been stable, relatively speaking.  Again priced in.

The gold and silver mining stocks that I have followed seem also to remain generally weak, even though both gold and silver prices have risen.  Were the stocks in front of the bullion prices?

This would seem to support the notion that the market is not a lagging indicator, but rather a pre-cursor of things to come.  Stocks fell prior to recession, and should start coming up before it is completed.    I personally don't think that we could expect these miners to go up in price, unless they are current producers and start selling future contracts at higher prices, but even still I gotta believe that those stocks have got to have a lot of that already priced into their stocks.

I'm thinking that Bullion prices have to stay up for an extended period, for the miners to benefit, or they obviously have to produce more product.

Thoughts?

[dananini]

Well then how do ever profit fro this shit?

[john77]

Dananini,

It looks like we don't! I am thinking of selling my house to avoid crashing through two intermediate term tops (I am in Canada).

Nonetheless, I am holding these U stocks as I have LONG lost my chance to trade aggressively. This is buy and hold now.

[jjj000]

Profitting ain't easy.  It takes a shrewd mind and a lot of research and time... unless you have some great insider contacts... in which case you wouldn't be bothering to post on a random message board

[punter]

Well guys thats ( all your excellent perspectives) exactly why I pointed out the TEDBITS site. It ( IMO) is an excellent take on the macro. Profiting is certainly not easy, but gauging the pulse of the market is a lot easier nowadays than it was twenty + years ago before the internet. Prior to that it really was an insiders game. Now not entirely.

As far as housing, it's true that Canadian real estate markets lag the US by 6 to 9 months. However every recession is different. last time around real estate ( 91 -2001) simply froze in price. Arguably thats a long time to hold. In the 80's prices came down fast and hard. What it will do ultimatley this time is of course impossible to predetermine . The nature of the market is completley differant this time in Canada due to the much more sane nature of our credit system vis a vis the US. Ergo, not so inflated a bubble. In Vancouver where I am the market is still quite bouyant, no guarantee of future performance of course.

UX Consulting reported today at a conferance in South Africa that the fundamentals for Uranium going forward were strong. Key point " What is forward" in time to you?

Gold miners are really the intrigue, so undervalued on every matrix. My gold percetage stays put, I think the surprise will be to the upside, but thats just my random opinion.

[jjj000]

well... I hope you are right... because if gold doesn't hold up above $880 this week then we might be in for a good couple weeks of red.

Which will of course bring down any uranium sector momentum along with it.  Just what we need.

[Croaker]

I wouldn't worry about Gold. It had a nice run up so people are selling for a little profit. I would expect it to get over 1,000 by end of Feb early March, at least I am hoping. So I believe buying on these dips should be good.