Technical Analysis Page

[sidewinder]

SS the week I put that broom up the SnP closed at 1108.

This week closed at 1311, 1 year 2 months later. 

Like "The Dude"   The broom abides. 

[sidewinder]

Regards the SnP futures.  Two weeks ago we broke above what I consider solid resistance at 1262.51.

Actually three weekly closes above that point now under the bridge.  That 1262 is now decent support.   

We did this SAME thing involving the SAME numbers exactly one year ago.  The market remained above this support until Aug (end of July actually) when the SnP futures broke support went through this grid and bounced almost exactly on the next major support.  That support being 1071 and the market bouncing off 1068 only 3 point over shoot and only momentarily.

My grids are all based on the wave 1 which occurred in 2002 and are the Fibonacci  retracements within larger Fibonacci retracements.  Won't get into it here but these are some very powerful numbers when looking at cycles, fractals etc. 

I just look for repeat-ability and patterns and there's nothing unusual about the charts of the last few years.  Last year we spent 5 months correcting and sideways and the past couple weeks is the first real indication of resuming an assault on the previous weekly highs.  Will it happen ......... Hell if I know but the weekly charts shows me a Moving Average Pattern that almost always produces a run up to test previous highs.  When the SnP futures get in the vicinity of 1362 we can simply hold our breath. 

Lots of Bears out there that want this to collapse for all sorts of reasons but the market will do what it needs to.  With Europe in the shits, capital has been all kinds of flustered about where to flee, I think it will flow into the US market for various reasons but at least for a while.    The dollar has been going basically up for about 6 months now and the futures were extremely volatile while this has been going on. This past week and almost every time the dollar goes down a bit these markets get boosted UP.  The dollar may retrace downward over the next few weeks or so giving the markets a boost.  Then I can see the opposite happening around the middle of March. 

Hey, this is all some amateur's guess so consider this my warning about making investment decisions based on anything you read here.   

 

[sunseeker]

I'm with you now.  
April 18th
http://buy-high-sell-higher.com/forum/general-discussion/stockmarket-april-t1124.0.html;msg13447#msg13447
AND
http://buy-high-sell-higher.com/forum/general-discussion/stockmarket-april-t1124.0.html;msg13448#msg13448

Just keep your eye on the broom while I fix the dog another bowl o' beans

I looked back and you where eventually vindicated on two counts....

May 8th
http://buy-high-sell-higher.com/forum/general-discussion/precious-metals-t1018.0.html;msg13584#msg13584

Yes SS the broom is on it's ass about now.

I still firmly think we will bounce again but from what level is the question.

Some bounce though.
Don't be so hard on yourself.**

Cash is trash?
Put your money into something that stands to give you above inflation returns.
Or put it in a bank and watch your net worth erode.

** The Barclays Skyscaper Index (an hitherto reliable CRASH predictor) is indicating a Chinese crash.

Which would have dire consequences for everyone.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/china-soaring-skyscrapers-latest-confirmation-housing-bubble-barclays-finds

http://www.architizer.com/en_us/blog/dyn/37729/barclays-skyscraper-index-correlates-worlds-tallest-buildings-with-impending-economic-crises/

Keep watching that broom.

             


ATB  

[pinetree]

I think we got about 6 more weeks of this before the next correction.  BTFD UFN (until further notice)

So, what do your tea leaves say now?

I keep thinking... if major market tops are only put in when the public is feeling optimistic about the markets and economy then this thing has a long long way to go.  Everyone thought the markets were going up forever in 2000, and everyone thought house prices were going up forever in 2007, so where's the enthusiastic bullishness now?

Most regular people I know don't trust the market and most retail "traders" are still trying to short the market.

I mean, I realize this market is going up because of stimulus money.  But aren't the public always left holding the bag at the top?  So what's it going to take to get the public into the market in a big enough way so that the banks have someone to unload things to?  Maybe it will have to make new all time highs for that to happen.

[sidewinder]

I'm not worried until March PT.  But I would keep my finger on the trigger as we are butting up against some resistance in the Futs.  if the ES blows through 1331.25 don't blame me.  

Next week will be interesting. 

As usual, should someone start a big gunfight all bets are off but, I'm beginning to think that politicians nowadays are too stupid to even start a fight and make it look like the other guys fault.  People have gotten to the point they don't believe anything coming out of government so a shoot 'em up is a little bit harder to pull off now.  Especially during an election year, so it's up to any of the several idiots around the world to do something stupid and I wouldn't place any bets on that one either way. 

[pinetree]

I thought this was interesting....
http://www.bigmiketrading.com/traders-hideout/7364-random-line-theory.html

This guy is having a random number generator pick spots to place lines on the chart, and then seeing how many of those lines appear to be "respected" by intraday price action.  Pretty funny.  Makes you wonder about all the magic S/R indicators everyone is selling....

I know some guys who say TA is voodoo nonsense, and trade martingale type strategies or variations of flip a coin and enter with a profit target 1.5-2 times your stoploss type of idea.  They believe price is essentially random and the market is a game of chance.  Got to have a large account and stay away from leverage if you want to martingale though...

I don't know what to say to that.  I will say the biggest breakthrough in my trading was when I stopped trying to precision time market turning points and started focusing more on money management and hedging.  So I do understand where they are coming from.

[sidewinder]

TA doesn't give you guaranteed results.  Simply High probability.  Can't help but believe that most approach TA with some idea that it gives them all the answers and hard rules.  I don't look at it any way other than pattern recognition and high probability.  So then look for lowest risk and highest probability entry.  Exit is then the key win or lose.  Money management rules in case you are inclined to get stupid. 

 

[MetalMeister]

Down trends in gold and silver?  how low will it go?

[pinetree]

Yeah, SW, I know what you mean.  I don't really consider martingaling as true trading.... but if it makes money then more power to them.  But it's dangerous.   I heard about the guy at TTM (John Carter's outfit) who runs their trading room.  Apparently he had been successfully running a martingale strategy in their live chatroom for over a year, but a few months ago blew out his account averaging down without a stop in /TF futures.  Unbelievable that people actually pay money for that kind of "education" LOL.

I understand people being frustrated with TA though.  I have been there.  The thing is with this day trading.... I can find some set of parameters that will work for a while.... then it will stop working.  The market will change its "personality" and there will be either more false signals, or less follow through on winning signals, or more stopouts due to choppy action, or some other issues that will destroy the profitability of the approach.  It does get very frustrating at times because there are so many things that look promising on hindsight charts that are simply not practical when tested in real time markets.  It's a huge amount of time to find something that does work....... but then it will go and stop working.    I know all traders need to adapt quickly to changing conditions and as a developing trader that's something I have a hard time with.  I have recently sought help from a successful day trader to try and get myself on the right track.  Hopefully it will help as I know there are guys out there making a very nice living trading from home and I want to be one of them.

*********************

YC (oops, I mean MM )... I can't say much about those charts.  I have never had any success using trendlines or channels.  I put them on long term charts once in a while but more for fun than anything else.  Maybe SW will have some better advice!

[sidewinder]

You Know PT, I live in Vegas and stock picking is the same thing as the games offered here.  I have seen so many systems I can't even keep track.  Some simple, some as complicated as astro physics.  All can work for some period of time and the Martingale is likely one of the worse as far as being able to reach "gamblers ruin" the quickest. 

I can usually take a $100 dollar bill, sit down at a $5 blackjack table and entertain myself for hours.  Sometimes I leave with more than I started and sometimes I lose the hundred.  After many sessions over the years one thing stands out;  If you stay too long ....... you lose.  If I was attempting to make $$ I would be much better off observing the tables, narrowing down the ones that meet my requirements for action then sit down and place a single $100 bet letting it all ride 3 times ....... that's not a record BTW.  My first hand nets a hundred and I bet 2.  The second hand nets $200 and I bet 4.  If I win I have 700 dollars profit and the whole thing took about 5 minutes.  I haven't wasted my time, become tired, had voices going off in my head, blamed the other players for stupid play, created doubt in my decisions and a host of other things and demons that tend to accompany gamblers into the joint.  Not a lot of difference in stock picking and TA.  is it?

The big difference is in TA just as in any game of chance patterns appear or they don't.  If they do, take advantage of them and when the pattern exhaust's itself move to another table. 

Those patterns MM put up show the trend.  Why trade against the trend unless it proves otherwise?   They will likely go to test the last low and either fail at that point, turn around and go to test the last high and then either fail or break out.  The danger zones just happen to be the potential profit zones as well.  Just like that silver chart where is it likely to go?  In Sep it fell to a major Fib line and recovered to be unable to make a new high.  Then in Dec it fell to almost the exact number.  In fact those intra-day lows were within .015 cents of one another.  That weekly chart is a decent mid term look see and silver tried and failed to breakout through the 50 MA back in Oct and first half of Nov.  Now another assault on the 50 and it looks weak.  although it broke through the 20MA (not shown) it's been dragging the 20 down with it.  Should it break $35 in the next couple weeks it's set to explode upward.  Otherwise it's goiong to test 26 followed by 22 over the next few months.  You can bet either direction provided you have a defined risk and that's up to the individual trader depending on his trading plan.  In fact you can bet both directions at the same time provided you DEFINE the risk on each trade and execute like a friggin machine and not let any loss bother you.  What you cannot do, is hymn and haw around, change your exit strategy or use position sizes outside you accounts capabilities to withstand loses and stay in the game.  All I'm saying is this ain't rocket science and unless you have a written trading plan that you have fine tuned on paper with real time numbers your gonna eventually lose. 

I haven't been trading much lately other things have my attention right now but you will figure it out and then like me you will find it's boring.  Then again, maybe not as I've never placed a great deal of importance on money other than what I need to live.  Just never saw any sense in it frankly as the end result for all of us is the same.  LOL 

[sidewinder]

Oh, I meant to add about silver.  On that weekly chart you might notice that silver made a double bottom, one in October and the other exactly 13 weeks later.  What kind of number is that and what does it possibly mean?  Do you know the odds of a double bottom winding up and breaking out to new highs?  If it follows through what number is correct for the top according to the fibs?  When should you begin selling your position?  Lots of things to think about eh?

[MetalMeister]

There are a number of interesting things to see here...

I have added total Open Interest to the long/short chart.

I have added a 3rd chart which shows Commercial longs and shorts as a % of total Open Interest and the difference between the two trend line.

Check out the entire 4 years.  I see patterns in buying and selling.   

[pinetree]

I haven't been trading much lately other things have my attention right now but you will figure it out and then like me you will find it's boring.  Then again, maybe not as I've never placed a great deal of importance on money other than what I need to live.  Just never saw any sense in it frankly as the end result for all of us is the same.  LOL  

You're right about that... in the end we will all take our place in the bone orchard.  But would be nice to have some extra cash while I'm here.  There are some places I'd like to visit for more than a few days but when you only get 2-3 weeks vacation a year it doesn't leave a lot of time.  Though I realize money doesn't solve problems as I hear some of these rich traders complaining about bad marriages and gold digging women, going into depression over different things, addictions, so yeah..... there is a limit to how much money can do for someone.

But I already feel that trading is boring....it's just the consistent profitability part that's missing.  

Kind of off-topic here but this made me laugh.  I recently noticed some discussion on a trading forum about trading in Thailand and these guys going on about how great they hear it is there.... great place to meet women, foreign women so much better than American women, etc.  Couldn't help but think of the stories you and Punter would tell... "fleecing the Farang is the oldest game in town" LOL.  But I guess guys will be guys and there's likely no stopping them.  LOL

[sidewinder]

There's lot's of fun to be had in Thailand but, it's not different that most of the SE Asian "playgrounds".  White males = Walking ATM's

[MetalMeister]

Walking ATMs, huh?   

Never heard that one before!

I have a question.

Anybody read much about stock manipulation?

What percentage of daily volume is needed to manipulate a stock or future down in price?