The story of Dines successful guidance-back up the truck!!

[punter]

Johannesburg –  - 

Spot uranium prices came under substantial pressure on Tuesday, as reported by Tullet Prebon, an inter-dealer broker that operates across 18 countries. At the same time, widely followed uranium specialists Ux Consulting published a weaker spot uranium price of $78/lb, down by $8 from last week.

According to trade reports, physical offers have been put up for February and March 2008 in all three holding areas - the US, Europe and Canada - with prices below $80/lb in two of the areas. According to market players, one of the sellers has entered the market with "hundreds of tons" of material (each 100 tons equates to more than 220,000 pounds of uranium oxide).

It is said that there are no speculative funds or hedge funds on the Tullet Prebon screen at this time. According to one dealer, "it looks like the spot price may test the $75/lb level again before potentially rebounding toward the end of this quarter". 

Spot uranium prices fell in August 2007 to $90/pound, according to Ux Consulting. The price was well down by $46/pound from the $136/pound record seen in late June. Uranium spot prices started to climb, from a low of $7/pound in 2000, mainly on the back of uranium's use as an alternative energy source to hydrocarbons.

In late October Ux Consulting and Tradetech said the spot uranium U3O8 price had increased by $2 to $80 a pound, signalling a further possibility that then-recent prices around $75 a pound represented lows. So far that prediction has held up, but the level is once again seen as a test in the short-term. Uranium stocks were recently off by an average of 66% from 12-month highs. There has been some recovery in the last while, but stocks were again under pressure on Tuesday.

Selected uranium stocks
 
 
 
 
 
 Stock
 From
 From
 Value
 
Producers
 price
 high*
 low*
 US$m
 
Cameco
 C$34.07
 -43.1%
 6.5%
 11341
 
Uranium One
 C$6.88
 -63.1%
 4.2%
 3104
 
Paladin
 A$4.83
 -55.3%
 27.1%
 2523
 
ERA
 A$19.39
 -32.2%
 36.5%
 3152
 
Denison
 C$6.70
 -59.6%
 9.8%
 1229
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Developers
 
 
 
 
 
First Uranium
 C$9.40
 -29.6%
 44.8%
 1190
 
Aurora
 C$8.74
 -56.5%
 7.4%
 618
 
Xemplar
 C$5.50
 -35.3%
 570.7%
 581
 
Mega
 C$2.68
 -70.2%
 66.5%
 466
 
Bannerman
 A$2.90
 -30.0%
 123.1%
 330
 
Laramide
 C$4.78
 -71.4%
 59.3%
 269
 
Deep Yellow
 A$0.29
 -59.1%
 81.3%
 274
 
UR-Energy
 C$2.27
 -58.3%
 10.7%
 202
 
Forsys
 C$2.56
 -74.9%
 23.7%
 190
 
Tournigan
 C$1.15
 -74.4%
 35.3%
 136
 
Strathmore
 C$1.71
 -68.9%
 13.2%
 120
 
Extract
 A$1.05
 -22.2%
 128.3%
 165
 
Berkeley
 £0.38
 -58.5%
 0.0%
 86
 
Uranium Energy
 $2.45
 -73.8%
 36.1%
 92
 
Khan
 C$1.22
 -78.4%
 15.1%
 64
 
West Prospector
 C$0.75
 -87.9%
 13.6%
 39
 
Average
 
 -60.1%
 65.7%
 
 
* 12-month
 
 

[jjj000]

I can't tell if that title is sarcasm or not???

All I know is we're going to get drilled tomorrow... a $14 Billion write down by UBS... even if Fed cuts 50 pts. we're going to get hammered b/c of that.

And by "we" I guess I mean "me" and whoever else is in the sorry position I am in right now, holding onto flailing uranium securities.

I expect 10-20% drops tomorrow in most of the junior explorers.

(though of course the Resource Investor Uranium Average will go up if Rio Tinto is up 1%... hah... what a crock that "average" is...)

BUT, Dines next letter comes out on Friday.  Probably after market close on Friday, as is the norm.  And I expect it to have some positive words that might send his followers on a buying spree on Monday morning.

So maybe you back up the truck late Friday afternoon... after watching the beating we all take tomorrow and Thursday? 

[Croaker]

Poor Dines.
We loved him in 2006 as his picks were sky rocketing.
We had a love/hate relationship in 2007 as his picks started the downward spiral. Now it is a hate relationship in 2008 because his picks bottomed out (we hope) or might go down farther.

I can't remember, but didn't he say in one of his letters he would be getting out of the Uranium stocks in the next couple of years. I think he said 2009, but not sure. Maybe he is thinking of doing it this year.

[dananini]

He never offered a specific date.Only that supply/demand would be out of whack till 2011
at the earliest.

[john77]

I don't even dare to look at uranium stock prices today - I wonder if there is an IWB coming out again. Didn't JD claim that his stocks would reach and surpass old highs? I guess if you hold forever it might happen.

[eman727]

I have been reading the board for some time and have found it very helpful especially during this down turn.  I figured I would throw in my two cents for what its worth.

 Anyhow I have been spending some time lately looking back at the Internet bull market and making some comparisions to this  so called Uranium bull market.   I could not help to notice that PNP is the pretty muth equivalent to what CMGI was in the Internet bull market.  Also during the Russian Debt crisis  and LTC in August of 98 CMGI went down form its high  that fall talmost 60%.   I was not a Dines subscriber at the  time, but I would guess that he would not have had a sell rating on it.  We all know that CMGI went on to have some spectacular rise.   Just some thoughts.

e

[punter]

JJJOOO , if you can lose 70% across the board and still have a single subscriber sending in fees then no, my post wasn't sarcasm it was a howling laugh. PT Barnum said " Theres a sucker born every minute". I wonder if guys like Dines have that pinned up over the desk.

If Dines had not disregarded his own blather about sticking to trend lines then he would have put out a sell advisory across the board on every issue on his " rec list" he may have retained some respect. Did he? Anyone who still listens to that fool, that scumbag tout has to get thier heads examined !!! Screw Dines !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Can't any clearer than that.

[Depleted]

I am going to the World Financial Outlook Conference in Vancouver on friday. Sadly, Mr.Dines is not a guest speaker at this event this year either. I would like to see him though, as he does inspire one to learn about the market, and for that, I am grateful. I really enjoy listening to any expert in their field.
In his newsletters, he explains that you have homework to do, to become a serious investor. After reading his letter for 2 years, I am only now starting to figure out some of the "stuff" he is telling. Obviously he cannot come out and say "Sell Pinetree today", as this would upset the apple cart. Most of his recs, that he has said "BUY" in an up market have moved higher, and exits for you with some profits were easily attainable at your discretion, your discretion, your discretion, and also by your discretion...seeing a pattern here?  Most of his recs, that he has said "BUY" in a down market (now, since aug162007) have gone down also, why? because they are following the trend, which is...down, right now, anyway. Which means, waiting for a valid entry point.(As a serious investor would know). I think he gives the investor more than enough "tools" to make money.
The real question we all need to ask ourselves is.... "What criteria besides Mr.Dines makes a stock become a BUY?" and "What criteria makes the stock I own become a SELL?"  When you have concrete strategies for those two questions, and have implemented them when signals are determined, then Mr.Dines has gotten through to you, and you should be making money. He has made me excellent returns, and thank him for all he has done. The real secret to most of your success is controlling your emotions, the rest reads like a book.
Good Luck....
P.S. For those out there who doubt, go back and re-read your old letters from 2007 and learn. Its like watching a movie the second time around and seeing something you completely missed the first time. The messages are subtle, but they are there....   

[punter]

I don't know much more than a 70% loss would qualify as 'upsetting the applecart". At a 70 % loss I'd describe that as the applecart getting hit by a Mack truck and laying quivering almost dead by the side of the road. There are a lot of people who are more than a little upset and wish their "advisor" had followed his own technical ponderings and recommended a sell when the criteria for selling was met.

I suppose continuing to support fools , touts and snake-oil salesmen like Dines is subjective and has historical precedent. There is a thing called Stockholm Syndrome where a victim begins to look to their abuser for support. LOL, remember Patty Hearst. How about the patheon of experts who recommended tech stocks even as the market crashed and caused thousands of sheeple to continue to buy? Where are they now? Living the good life in Del Boca Vista probably. Remember? They ( the sheeple) are commonly referred to as Lemmings and laughed at over sunset martini's.

I can't rationalize supporting a douchbag like Dines. Losing money is not for me. To answer your question regarding the criteria for selling an issue I would say " WHEN YOU LOSE 70% selling may become an option to consider. It's not an offense to the master when you try to save your own life. Jim Jones asked his followers to sacrifice themselves for his ideals, but in the stock market the touts may be seeking to sell their own stocks into any rally they can perpetrate. As I said , stock promotion is an ugly business. Jim Jones just wanted to die. When someone asks me to follow them I always ask 'why'? I suppose thats why they don't recruit older experianced guys like me into the military.

I hope you're investments do better for you, I think a lot of very smart people were duped by some very sophisticated touts. If we compare this situation to the housing debacle in the US we see that a parellel exists wherein perfectly rational people can still get ripped off by slick promoters who count on the average persons ignorance of the industry. Lets face it , most people who are investing come to rely on these touts because they have no formal training or even a modicum of education or understanding of the stock market themselves. There are hundreds of studies published detailing the failings in investor psychology. Google 'Fundamental Errors in Attribution' for example.

As a kid I worked in advertising research which is basically the science of manipulating people. It's sad that so many people are so stupid and easily manipulated but it's true. Product placement is a science not an art. The people who disguise themselves as experts in the stock market are no more than old fashioned snake oil salesmen using time tested techniques to fleece the tired , the unwashed and the unwary.

From a market perspective look up the definition of "The Hot Hand" phenomena as it relates to stock picking. History is littered with the names of the truly cunning, the stupid and the disgraced. My opinion is that Dines will be the poster child for a future generation of investors when they are taught what to avoid.

[langman57]

Jim's a smart guy, but let's not go overboard. Trust me, I know him.  I haven't read a letter in a while, but he is as much a follower as he proclaims to be a leader. He was pushing gold back when I was a kid, and it was a disaster. (When he was the "Original Gold Bug"). He finally gave up. Years later, when the internet came on strong, he  decided to call himself the "Original Internet Bug". Wrong. He was just jumping on the bandwagon. Now he's the "Original Uranium Bug". Ok,  he got the uranium BUY right, but that's all he's gotten right. What about the SELL, or researching industries where he may actually have to do some real due diligence? It takes too much work, and it won't happen.

As a subscriber, I shouldn't have to read between the lines for a cryptic message.  But that's just me.

[jjj000]

Langman, sorry bro, your post makes no sense at all.

Unless I'm missing something... Dines never gave up on gold, since he's still pushing it today.  If you bought it back then when you were a kid you'd be rolling in it now.

And if you "haven't read his newsletter in a while" how do you know if he's getting it right or wrong?  Sounds like a bash to me.

The point is, whether you hate him, love him, think he's the devil or a douche bag... he has a lot of subscribers and commands a substantial financial backing.  And when he tells his subscribers to BUY, a good amount of them do so indiscriminantly... the high state of following without caring what the f you are doing.

Whatever the truth may be, when he says buy, the stocks jump.  Sometimes up to 25% within minutes of his IWBs.  So money can be made simply off of his recommendations, whether they are a complete load of crap, or whether he's a mass-psychology market genius.  Either way, if you play it right, you can make significant returns, whether the trend is down or up...

So the trick becomes not FOLLOWING his advice, but learning how to PREDICT when his IWB's will come out.  Which, if you pay even moderate attention, is not that hard.

Hell, maybe I should start up a newsletter about my predictions for when The Dines Letter will throw up BUY signals.  I could be the "Original Dines IWB Bug"!!!

Any takers?  $199/year.  Save 10% if you sign up for 5 years.  Hurry, this offer expires in 24 hours!!

[punter]

Heres an example ( in the quote below) of a person in a state of dissonance after realizing that they'd been taken. I took this out of an article on the housing situation in todays Yahoo News. This person obviously thought that the initial decision was correct due to his own fundamental errors in attribution. In other words he thought he understood something when in fact he was making an assumption based on  an incorrect idea.

It's too bad more people who don't think, can't think , and so merely emote their way into bad situations because " every one else is doing it". As some guy said, I can't remember his name, " The stock market is a rough place to find out what you're made of".

I think one of the reasons that the famous touts are laying low and not making public appearances  is  because 'the betrayed ' are waking up  and they are not happy. IMHO you should be royally pissed off when you get duped.

The continued support in the Dines cloud ( yes I mean cloud) is simply amazing, in a funny hah hah sort of way. The great con artists always get the dupe to particapate in the swindle by making the facts just obscure enough to not be understood but cause the mark to not want to admit their own ignorance . It's textbook.

Langman57 seems to think that "Jim" is just an unwitting dupe himself and should have been more knowledgeable. I'm OK with that too.

Now the quote:



"You have to sign a lot of things when you buy a house, so I didn't read, I just signed. I think it was the anxiety, the happiness of buying my house," he said. "I feel a bit betrayed."

That says it all. What a nightmare.

[jjj000]

wow punter... you are really miffed about this whole situation... I can tell

Look, I don't want to be a Dines apologist, b/c I myself am not sure what to think of it all aside from what I've already said.  But claiming he is down 70% across the board is a little unfair.  He has plenty of picks in his first 3 Lists that are holding up well enough in this market-wide downturn.

It's just the last 2 Lists, which he clearly identifies as "VERY HIGH RISK" and "HIGH RISK" which are currently getting derailed.  And even a few of those are still doing ok.

Plus, it's not exactly fair to compare something to its all-time high and make a call based solely on that.  Maybe if they were down 70% from their 50-day moving average or something... that would be different.  But we're not quite there yet.

It seems that you are absolutely certain the bull run is over for these uranium stocks.  Can you be so sure?  Or are you still open to the possibility, that, for example, by April 2009 they could again be back at those highs from last year?  Just curious.  Because if you are open to that idea... then you are probably staring into the last, best buying opportunity you will have.

Damn, maybe I should write my own newsletter...

Good luck everyone, thanks for the forum to distract me from work...

[langman57]

jjj000- Maybe I'm missing something. Lets see...I'm 50. When I was 15, around 1972, gold was at $850 or so. It then went as low as the $300's. THIRTY FIVE YEARS LATER it's now at $900. You call that an investment? I feel sorry for those who bought in at that price only to see their investment cut in half. I agree, he can move markets. And he's the master of understanding "the herd". Maybe you want to be one of them. I don't know. But I still respect your opinion. Moreover, I don't need his letter -  it's easy to gauge how he's doing by reading this board!!

[jjj000]

Langman... my bad.  I don't know why I always assume people posting on boards are younger.  I assumed you were late 20's!!!  I retract my criticism.

Did he really recommend gold back in the early 70's at the peak?  According to his letters he claims that he started to recommend gold between '92 and '01.  Maybe this is the 2nd time he's recommended gold...?

I'd be interested to hear yours or anyone's stories about his past track record.  I've only been a subscriber for about 18 months, and have only been investing for about 2 years now, so I have no way of knowing his real record from the past.

But then again... the past ain't the future... heh...