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sidewinder
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« on: March 08, 2009, 08:32:10 AM »

What the Hell just Happened?
Or The evolution of a Trader

Process goes like this.  You are positioned in you 401k or trading account and have no clue what to buy, when to buy, How much to buy and when to sell.  You have heard all the water cooler talk and at least one of your friends just made a pile of dough on stock X.  Another one mentions that he went all into International funds and is up 25% for the year.  Meanwhile, your money has been divided amongst 5-6 “buckets” such as Small Caps, Large Caps, and International Funds.  You really have no idea what’s in those funds and when you are sent the prospectus booklet it is huge with small print and you simply don’t have the time to read and comprehend what it is you have trusted you retirement to.  So along comes a company approved financial advisor and you gladly pony up a fee.  It may be 2% annually or a set monthly or annual fee.  In either case you turn control of your account to these guys who really know what’s going on.  Things go well you get up 20% for the year and all’s well.  Then suddenly you get your statement and you notice you lost 15% last month.  Next month the statement comes and you lost another 10%. 

Well, that does it.  You fire the hired gun and go back to making your own decisions.  But, you still aren’t sure, so one of your friends steers you to a newsletter to which he subscribes and you have now found the Holy Grail.  This guy has turned $10,000 portfolios into $200,000 dollar portfolios.  10 bangers are nothing for this guy many of his picks are up thousands of percent.  You get all the information, it’s working and you hear about this other “Newsletter”.  As a matter of fact you are now hearing from about 3 newsletters a week because you are now in the “system”.  Not only are you a player, but every publisher of “advice” in the country now has your address and is willing to “share” valuable information for only a select few “high net worth” individuals and you are one of them.  By Golly, you have made the big time.   Your portfolio is up big.  Then it’s down but that’s simply a buying opportunity.  Pretty soon you are 95-100% invested and on your way to millions.  Corrections happen you say.  And they do.  Suddenly one day the correction turns in to a crash and you find your account seriously under water.  Guru sends out an emergency warning explaining how the fundamentals remain the same and you calm down and hang on to “tiller” of your financial lifeboat.

What happened?  

Well what happened was you paid an investment guru during a bull market and he ran into a wall when the market changed directions.  Guru is arrogant and in denial.  You still believe in guru after all, you're paying him good money.  Note:  My 3 year old grandson could pick stocks during the last bull market.

Quite possibly at some point your gut told you to get out.  So you reduced your exposure by ½ only to see the stock bounce.  At which time you, in a fit of panic, bought back in.  Now you are getting whipsawed back and forth while your guts and brain switch positions two or three times a day.   If any of this sounds familiar to you I can assure you, you are not alone.   
 
If you are like most people and can’t make these decisions for yourself there are plenty of gurus who at some time or the other have publicly given advice that worked at some point in time and will gladly sell you a newsletter that most likely promotes their position and bias. 

Suddenly you realize you are now paying thousands for annual subscriptions to investment newsletters and your accounts are seriously underwater.

What happened?

What happened is, you relied on someone who has nothing to lose, nothing invested in your future and will suffer no consequence whatsoever from YOUR loss.  If fact he only stands to gain regardless of what happens to you or your portfolio. In fact I envy his position.  Who’s the greater fool in this scenario?

Some would simply throw up their hands and give up.  Put what’s left in a money market fund and go on about life.  If you happen to be a stubborn as I am, you are not going to let this get the best of you.

Not being naive enough to think I can create a scenario where there is no risk (although the gurus have) wouldn’t it be best to try and get in a position of low risk?  Just thinking about the guru selling me information while taking zero risk is beginning to sink in.  Maybe I should begin to think for myself after all allowing someone else to do my thinking hasn’t worked so well. 

Where can I access the information to make sound decisions and what would a sound decision look like?

The internet is full of information.  It might be said availability of information doubles every week.  With so much knowledge available a person in today’s world should never be under-educated in any subject for which he truly seeks enlightenment.

Learning the black art of chart reading

************To be Continued (maybe)************

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sidewinder
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« Reply #1 on: March 08, 2009, 08:41:23 AM »

These are just simply some weekend thoughts I had while looking over some studies tonight.  Thoughts I put on the Word program after speaking with a friend on the phone.  He seemed to be where I was a few years ago.  If any of you find it interesting, informative or otherwise entertaining put a comment up one way or the other.  based on that I will either continue or kill the thread.

Dont want to waste my time, you time or JDH's bandwidth with useless drivel. 

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Peter518
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« Reply #2 on: March 08, 2009, 11:47:11 AM »

sidewinder, thank you very much for sharing your thoughts with us.  Agreeing with you about investment newsletters, I have not renewed all my subscriptions this year.
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« Reply #3 on: March 08, 2009, 01:59:59 PM »

ditto for me.
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sunseeker
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« Reply #4 on: March 08, 2009, 02:03:33 PM »

Peter518
With apologies to the rest of you for dragging this one up again.

http://buy-high-sell-higher.com/forum/dines-and-ethics/dines-newsletter-t118.0.html;msg2088#msg2088

 
SW.
I hope that you can keep this thread going. I hate to see people being hoodwinked out of their hard earned money. As you so rightly say any fool can make money in a bull market. Taming the bear is a whole different proposition.

As we know it’s those micro cap stocks where very small volume can move the SP in a big way where this scam works best.

ATB
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MetalMeister
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« Reply #5 on: March 08, 2009, 03:32:09 PM »

SW,

Not much to add here, but it made me curious as to how to keep money safe in this environment, other than my usual picks...

I did a search on sector comparison and found this site:

http://www2.barchart.com/sectors.asp?base=industry

I found it interesting to go through and look up companies that these sectors are weighted on but some of you who use sophisticated tools probably make this look like grade school.  I think following sectors can be a good way to play the market more safely, not in the long term, but in the shorter term.

At the beginning you mentioned international funds and I used to have a very good one that got over 20% for several years.  Started 2003 in Vanguard International Growth Fund.  I got out in late 2006.  here is the chart of it's lifetime:



I only got out because I believed the Uranium story and that it was going to explode...    Cry

Fortunately, I got out of uranium a bit before the top.  Then I discovered the gold and silver story and have made a little money there.

But, I have bought back into uranium as well at the bottom because I still believe the story.  I may be a sucker, we'll see.

I think anybody who wants to give everything to a financial manager should just go the safe routes and try to keep up with inflation because they don't have the time or the stomach for the bear markets.

I think everyone who wants to do their own investing should read everything they can get their hands on about world economics and current events, all types of investment products and find their preferences and live with it, good, bad, or ugly.

I have no bad thoughts about newsletter writers because I believe they genuinely think they have researched everything and they are correct about their predictions and calls.

Maybe I AM driveling, I don't know, but ultimately we can choose to have a decision in our investing destiny OR NOT.

That is why I like this forum because I get such diverse points of view and ideas.
« Last Edit: March 08, 2009, 03:34:10 PM by yellowcaked » Logged

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Peter518
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« Reply #6 on: March 08, 2009, 05:26:02 PM »

SW,

Not much to add here, but it made me curious as to how to keep money safe in this environment, other than my usual picks...

I did a search on sector comparison and found this site:



Indeed, Barchart is a very good website, especially the top 100 stocks sector:

http://www2.barchart.com/sectors.asp?sec=top~100~stocks.sec&level=2&title=Top+100+Stocks

A very good indicator tells us who are hot, and who are cold...

Its futures sector is also good:

http://charts.barchart.com/chart.asp?sym=ESH9&data=Z45&date=022309&den=MEDHI&divd=n&evnt=ADV&grid=N&jav=ADV&size=D&sky=N&sly=N&vol=Y&late=Y&ch1=013&arga=&argb=&argc=&ov1=022&argd=20&arge=50&argf=100&ch2=&argg=&argh=&argi=&ov2=&argj=&argk=&argl=&code=BSTKIC&org=stk

I also find that the following website is also very useful:

http://finviz.com/

All the best.

Peter
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Bottomfeeder
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« Reply #7 on: March 08, 2009, 05:32:40 PM »

SW.....  Your a great writer, as well as a  complex, critical, and positionless thinker

Keep em coming!

Peter...nice coffin Embarrassed.  That Sunseeker is a smart cookie too, with some pretty good intermediate timing I've noticed.

Bottom line its a good group, thanks to all for the continued contributions.

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pinetree
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« Reply #8 on: March 08, 2009, 11:01:21 PM »

Yes, please continue.

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Don't be so hard on yourself, perfection is not achievable in the markets.  If you're trying to be perfect at every entry and exit then you will nickel and dime yourself into the psychiatric ward.
sidewinder
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« Reply #9 on: March 09, 2009, 05:16:31 AM »

Geezzz guys I'm blushing.  Thanks for the compliments.  Will continue with the story. 

Again thanks to all for the comments.
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sidewinder
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« Reply #10 on: October 17, 2009, 10:46:51 PM »

Rather than rambling on on the precious metals thread about this subject I place this here as it really follows the theme "What the Hell Happened"/

The important thing to understand and never forget in the Richard Russell article is: “This is the result of 96 years of Federal Reserve propaganda regarding their Federal Reserve Notes (we still call them dollars) being superior to Constitutional money – gold.  It’s a testament to the power of mass brain-washing.  Why do the Fed and the banks denigrate gold? Simple, they survive and make their living through dealing with and creating fiat currency.”
Trying to understand what the hell is going on with regards to gold I will comment further soon.  Is gold the best bet at this price level?  This is an extremely complicated issue and to me the concept and timing is most elusive.

I was forced into retirement at age 60 two years ago by the Federal Government, (yes there are age discrimination laws, but in America, you see, these things don’t apply equally to all.)   My health was and still is excellent, my skill and proficiency level at my job was at its peak, and my passion for my job was intact.  Only problem was I turned 60. 

The result of the entire debacle is, I have been denied the ability to earn over $1 million in additional income.  Lost $2.2 million in retirement from my defined benefit program. and likely lost another $95,000 in the distribution of funds recovered from a bankruptcy. (I may recover a portion of that depending on the outcome of a class action lawsuit which goes to trial next month).

Anyway, over the last two years I have tried to understand how the hell I got into this position.  I am far from total understanding but you can bet I have done lots of research from technical analysis of markets, study of cycles, and history.  The history part has been particularly enlightening and although what happened to my career is all about recent history the mechanisms for this mischief were put into place long before I was born.
Trying to understand why our founding fathers would insist in the Constitution to define money as gold or silver being the only form of legal payment, I read from many sources.  Why would these very wise people not want to use paper money?  Gold, silver and other metals are bulky and really cause many problems for settlement of debts both foreign and domestic.  The transportation cost of sending such a thing any distance to settle debts would be prohibitive and there is always the risk of loss of such a cargo.
 
Creation and coinage of “money”, and for that matter what money is, can be quite interesting.  A “thing” can only be what one perceives it to be.  So perception to the human is paramount and what people accept as money can only perform as money as long as the general population perceives it to be a thing of value.  Once they discover that it has no value, is when things turn ugly.

I can only assume the founders of our great REPUBLIC had only to be witness to all the paper money issues by other countries in the past and realize that it had always ended in failure of the currency due to inflation and wanted no part of it for our new nation. 

To reinforce this attitude, Thomas Jefferson and Ben Franklin had spent lots of time in France in the late 1700s and I am sure, they knew and understood the results of John Law’s paper money and the Mississippi Company.  Law, a Scotsman, was a banker who fled Scotland after killing a man in a duel found the French receptive to his paper money scheme and led to the ruin of the French monetary system.  After the revolution in France the government needed money to pay for all the wars. They came up with an idea.  Guess what more paper money in the form of the Assignat.  There was great debate, and the proponents argued that this would only be one issue and it would stimulate the economy and put people to back to work.  (sound familiar). The government confiscated all the church lands in France, (which were vast) and this real estate was the collateral for the Assignat.  The argument for the Assignat was it was land.  So the sales pitch to the people was, The Assignat represents something of value.  The land of France. So a real estate bubble (once again) was given birth.

 There were some wise politicians who argued against the issue of the Assignat.


   
Quotes from debates on issue of the French Assigant

“That infamous word, paper money, ought to be banished from our language.” – Anson
Anson also suggested the issue of paper money was “a loan to an armed robber”

 The great French orator, Mirabeau speaks of paper money as “A nursery of tyranny, corruption and delusion; a veritable debauch of authority in delirium.”
In the end, the assignat was issued and though things went well for a while, they soon were running out of money in the government.  So why not issue some more Assignats.  Which they did after more great debate and sales pitch to the public. 
 
Jean Anthelme Brillat-Savarin,who is remembered as perhaps, the best chef ever, should be more recognized for his insight and understanding of paper money.  As he tried to call the attention of the French Assembly to the fact that the first issue of assignats had already felt the effects of depreciation and predicted that if they made this new issue there would be a depreciation of thirty per cent.

They then voted for the second issue of Assignats, declaring there was a difference between paper money which John Law had issued and caused great suffering in the nation. That Deceptive subtleties can no longer mislead patriots and men of sense in this matter.  How sad. 
A very good Treatise on this subject if the 77 page “Fiat Money Inflation In France” By Andrew Dickson White written in 1933.  Link Below.

http://mises.org/books/inflationinfrance.pdf

All this occurred around 1790.  Things went along just fine in the USA until the disagreement between the North and South in the mid 1800s.  At this point I will have to blame Lincoln for everything that occurred which led to a war that slaughtered 600, 000 Americans. 

It is far too complicated to put on these pages but you can read for yourself, provided you approach it as an unbiased student.  Because Lincoln has been placed on a pedestal for so many years and we have all been taught what a wonderful man he was, It can almost be hazardous to denigrate the man in any way.  I would though suggest one start by reading some of Thomas DiLorenzo’s articles if not some of his many books on this subject.  Below is a link to an Archive of DiLorenzo articles.  There are many articles listed there for your enjoyment.  All are good but especially read the ones about Abraham Lincoln for a better understanding as it concerns the currency.  There was plenty of underhanded dealings going on in the civil war era, and Mr. Lincoln was no saint.

http://www.lewrockwell.com/dilorenzo/dilorenzo-arch.html

At this point I would have to say the problem of slavery which we have always been brought to believe was the cause of the civil war, could have been solved as it had been in many nations, peacefully.  And that the South would have ended slavery without a doubt if the political situation had been handled in a more forthright manner.  There was no reason for that war.  See Article on Lysander Spooner.

http://www.lewrockwell.com/dilorenzo/dilorenzo87.html

I have more to say on this subject but will see if I have time this weekend to put it here.  Comments are as always welcome.  I could be all wet here as I rarely have an original thought  Grin
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« Reply #11 on: October 18, 2009, 12:08:14 PM »

Sidewinder:

Can’t wait to read your comments on the question - Is gold the best bet at this price level?  And also down the road, if you do not mind, the outcome of the class action lawsuit.
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« Reply #12 on: October 18, 2009, 12:27:07 PM »

I can tell you one thing... if I could trade all my stock losses over the last 2 years and instead just bought gold coins at whatever the price was... I'd be a much happier guy right about now.

I don't necessarily have an issue personally with a greed and fiat currency based society.  What I really have have an issue with is my own inability to work my way into the top 1% of it  Undecided  Of course the inevitable path to war and violence stemming from it are horrific, but I doubt any society apart from a soma-induced utopia would last very long before those base human traits crept into it.

So I don't know what the answer is.  Even if you don't "cheat" as a government, and have an economy based on a real currency (or rather a shiny rock in the ground that people think is valuable)... it's not like it's going to cure the ills of human greed and lust and gluttony and reality TV.

I mean really - are we debating whether we should base our modern 21st century economy on how many shiny rocks we have compared to the next guy, rather than how much made up numbers on a computer we have instead??  What's the difference really??  And what other options are there - create a currency denominated in GDP?  Exports and trade balance?  If we did that I bet all those overseas manufacturing jobs we send out would come back real fast...

The only cultures that ever seem to have any success finding their way into any kind of peaceful monetary and social coexistence for any extended period beyond an empire cycle tend to all be isolated way far away in some mountains or jungles or something, have no nearby neighbors, and are completely homogeneous and can sit around all day in temples and ponder about life's philosophical intricacies.  You know, if you overlook the rape and pedophilia and stuff like that... until they get conquered and pillaged by someone else...

Go Dodgers.

« Last Edit: October 18, 2009, 12:42:30 PM by jjj000 » Logged
sidewinder
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« Reply #13 on: October 18, 2009, 07:53:12 PM »

3j

<<I mean really - are we debating whether we should base our modern 21st century economy on how many shiny rocks we have compared to the next guy, rather than how much made up numbers on a computer we have instead??  What's the difference really?? >>

Are you serious? 
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sidewinder
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« Reply #14 on: October 18, 2009, 08:09:37 PM »

Sidewinder:

Can’t wait to read your comments on the question - Is gold the best bet at this price level?  And also down the road, if you do not mind, the outcome of the class action lawsuit.

As far as the current price of gold.... depends on how long one is willing to hold it.  And I personally would only want physical gold in my possession because I don't trust these markets. As I have said before I view gold simply as a store of value not an investment. 

I will post the result of the class action when we know something.  Perhaps in mid November as this issue goes to jury trial and there could be an offer of settlement.
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