Gold Seasonality: Time to Buy Gold?

[sunseeker]

http://www.buy-high-sell-higher.com/2011/11/12/gold-seasonality-time-to-buy-gold/

I find that looking at seasonal trends often provides good pointers.
Pushing the chart 4 weeks forward to make it fit in with the expected seasonal trend........



Just goes to show that other factors (such as the EURO crisis) can knock a trend off course.

To quote from this weeks JDH commentary (Goldseek)...

Gold has just entered its strongest time of the year, embarking on a major seasonal rally.

As pointed out in the chart above we may be running a bit behind (so some caution).

November (December if delayed) may be a good time to top up but IMO the July/August period is a a better entry point.

http://buy-high-sell-higher.com/forum/general-discussion/precious-metals-t1018.0.html;msg15582#msg15582

Ignoring the market and playing the odds of success.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1276201069.php

http://www.lloydscommodities.com/blog/gold-2/goldseason/

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/smyth070711.html

Invest in gold in June/July when on weakness and the odds are in your favour.

Looking back in time at what could be in store in the coming weeks (seasonally).......

The Santa Claus Rally....
http://buy-high-sell-higher.com/forum/general-discussion/jdh-can-we-remove-audigger-t606.0.html;msg3037#msg3037

Where Sidewinder posted....

According to my handy Almanac the Santa Clause rally the last five trading days of the year and the first two in January.  This has been good for an average 1.5% gain since 1950 Santa's failure to show tends to precede bear markets, or times stocks could be purchased later in the year at much lower prices.  

Maxine pointed out tax loss selling (and realising profits) in December.

http://buy-high-sell-higher.com/forum/general-discussion/jdh-can-we-remove-audigger-t606.0.html;msg3026#msg3026

http://blog.taxresource.ca/getting-ready-for-tax-loss-selling/

Also options expiry dates......
http://www.heritagewestfutures.com/downloads/futures-options-calendar.pdf

http://www.marketwatch.com/optionscenter/calendar

I haven't grown faint hearted. I'm a cautious buyer with a very heavy weighting in Gold and Silver.
With all the economic woes, and expansion of the money supply (QE) there's no really bad time to buy PM's. Some times are just better than others. Pound cost averaging (adding at regular intervals) and buying on the dips from here is probably about as good a strategy as any.


ATB  

[MetalMeister]

I think now is a good time to buy PMs but I am still in waiting mode...

Check out this one yesterday:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/european-ponzi-goes-full-retard-efsf-found-monetize-itself

They are found out to be monetizing themselves - LOL.

They will never achieve anything close to backstopping Italy and pretty soon  that is going to scare money!

I expect and huge downward smackdown in PMs at that point followed by sudden rise way upwards.

Friends say into the $26-28-30 range.

I suspect even lower but do not know exactly when I will pull the lever.

I could be completely wet on this one!

 

[JDH]

The markets are subject to short term manipulation, so at this point nothing would surprise me.  I "smack down" on a European deal, or no deal, is quite possible.  Powering to new highs on some black swan event is also possible.  Regardless, we know that long term precious metals will be much higher.

Given the wide range of outcomes, the logical approach is to

• buy whenever there is a smack down
• take a small percentage of profits when irrational exuberance hits
• keep some cash handy for buying opportunities

..and keep your seatbelts fastened.