As I write this at 7:00 a.m. on Saturday, Bitcoin is exactly flat. It is hanging around some key technical levels. It’s not breaking down, not breaking out, just hanging around.
The uptrend line that started in February was violated this week, but Bitcoin is working to reclaim it. It’s also bouncing between the key support levels of $62,223 and the previous all-time high of just under $69,000.
Bitcoin closed on March 31 above all of the support levels, which was important because it was a weekly, monthly and quarterly close. Since then, it’s down.
So what does all of this mean?
In the long term, nothing. These are all just lines on a chart. Technical analysis is “astrology for men.” By the end of the year I expect Bitcoin to be well over $100,000 USD, probably considerably higher. In the short term, who knows? The halving is projected to happen on April 20, so between now and then Bitcoin may bounce around. It may go down. After the halving, it’s likely it will go up.
So, I’m not trying to time anything. I have my MSTR – Microstrategy Inc. position. I’ll hold it, and sit back and watch.
Enjoy the eclipse. See you next week.
Labour
by JDH on April 13, 2024
I’ll keep this short this week because not much is happening.
Bitcoin is in a holding pattern ahead of next week’s “halving,” which may or may not be a significant short-term price driver.
Gold is up, but is still short of the all-time high in 1980 in real terms.
Which brings us to labour.
Immigration has boosted the supply of labour.
Businesses used the pandemic to become more automated and digitized. This tax season, did you take your paperwork to an in-person meeting with your accountant? No, your accountant has access to your CRA account, and they download all of your slips and auto-fill your return. Then, if necessary, you have a quick video meeting to discuss it. That’s way more efficient than it was five years ago.
There is slack in the labour markets. We’ve got lots of available labour.
So, even though the economy looks strong (there continues to be demand for stuff), the supply (labour) is growing even faster, and this divergence will lead to disinflation and lower interest rates.
Is this priced in?
I have no idea, but I’ll let you ponder it, and we can discuss again in the future.